
民主党在中期选举中获胜,得益于选民对高物价的不满。如今,他们面临着导致共和党失利的同一个问题:美国人想要更低的物价,而政策制定者几乎无法迅速实现这一目标。
Democrats won the midterms on voter frustration with high prices Now they face the same problem that sank Republicans: Americans want lower prices, and there is little that policymakers can do to deliver them quickly.
为何重要:在健康的经济中,食品杂货和汽油等必需品的价格可能会下跌。但那种足以抵消多年涨幅的广泛价格下跌,很可能伴随着失业和收入下降,导致家庭处境比以前更糟。
Why it matters: Prices for necessities like groceries and gas can fall in a healthy economy. But the kind of broad price declines that would reverse years of price gains would likely come with job losses and falling incomes, leaving households worse off than before.
- 这为即将上任的民主党控制的国会以及全国各州议会中的民主党人设下了一个早期考验:提供选民能在家庭预算中真切感受到的减负。
• It sets up an early test for the incoming Democratic-controlled Congress and Democrats in statehouses across the country: delivering relief that voters can actually feel in their household budgets. What they're saying:
他们怎么说:“你能把物价恢复到2019年的水平吗?不能,”预算与政策优先中心联邦预算政策高级主任布伦丹·杜克对Axios表示。“但许多价格冲击是政策导致的,因此政策也有办法扭转它们。”
- 杜克指出,撤销食品援助削减、恢复健康保险补贴以及结束伊朗战争可能是减负的来源,但有一个“大大的星号”注脚:特朗普总统可能不会签署批准。
"Can you bring prices back to 2019 levels? No," Brendan Duke, senior director for federal budget policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, tells Axios. "But a lot of the price shocks are policy-induced, so there are ways that policy can reverse them." • Duke points to reversing food assistance cuts, restoring health insurance subsidies and ending the Iran war as possible sources of relief, with the "big, fat asterisk" that President Trump might not sign off.
- 杜克说,其他经济问题——潜在的失业率上升或人工智能泡沫破裂——可能会掩盖可负担性问题,却无法解决它。
• Other economic problems — a potential rise in unemployment or the AI bubble bursting — could overshadow affordability without solving it, Duke says. The big picture:
大局观:民主党对施加家庭预算压力的根源影响力有限。
Democrats have limited power over sources of pressure on household budgets.
- 他们在中期选举中的大胜帮助通过市场预期降低了油价。但特朗普仍掌控着战争的下一步走向,进一步的减负在很大程度上取决于他的下一步举措。
• Their midterm sweep helped lower oil prices through market expectations. But Trump still controls the next steps in the war, and further relief heavily depends on his next moves.
- 国会可以投票废除关税,从而可能降低进口商品和美国制造商的成本。但特朗普可以直接否决该立法(而且更普遍地说,不能保证企业会将所有节省下来的成本转嫁给消费者)。
• Congress could vote to repeal tariffs, potentially reducing costs for imported goods and American manufacturers. But Trump could simply veto that legislation (and more generally, there is no guarantee that businesses would pass all the savings on to consumers).
- 恢复已过期的《平价医疗法案》补贴或扭转医疗补助削减的计划,可能因党内分歧或特朗普的否决权而撞墙。
• Plans to restore expired Affordable Care Act subsidies or reverse Medicaid cuts could hit a wall because of internal divisions or Trump's veto power.
看点:在参议院大选中获胜的民主党人,竞选时主打降低物价,包括针对食品杂货和汽油的提案。
The intrigue: Democrats who won big Senate races campaigned on bringing down prices, including proposals targeting groceries and gasoline.
- 德克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科承诺,通过取消关税和促进竞争来降低食品杂货价格。在北卡罗来纳州,罗伊·库珀誓言要“让东西变便宜”,而南卡罗来纳州新当选的安妮·安德鲁斯提议暂停联邦汽油税。
• James Talarico in Texas promised to lower grocery prices by rolling back tariffs and boosting competition. In North Carolina, Roy Cooper pledged to "make stuff cost less," while incoming Annie Andrews in South Carolina proposed suspending the federal gas tax.
- 民主党在州长选举中的胜利,可能会产生各州层面的纷繁复杂的救济措施,包括直接给选民发钱:例如,德克萨斯州当选州长吉娜·伊诺霍萨提议发放 1500 美元的退税支票。
• Democratic victories in governors' races could produce a patchwork of state-level relief, including directly giving voters money: The governor-elect of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, for instance, has proposed $1,500 rebate checks. The other side:
另一方观点:“‘负担得起’似乎是新民主党多数派的授权。所以他们要么得找到一根‘魔杖’迅速降价,要么得……再次给民众发钱(让高价变得‘负担得起’),只会导致更多通胀,”亿万富翁投资者、债券巨头双线资本首席执行官杰夫·冈德拉赫周三写道。
"'Affordability' seems to be the mandate for the new Democrat majority. So they need to either find a 'magic wand' to bring prices down quickly, or they need to ... give money to people (so the high prices are made 'affordable') yet again. Only causing more inflation," Jeff Gundlach, the billionaire investor and CEO of bond giant DoubleLine Capital, wrote on on Wednesday.
展望:物价不必回到过去的水平,美国人才能恢复购买力。这可以通过一个较慢、不那么讨巧的政治过程实现:工资增速在一段持续时间内快于物价涨幅。
What to Prices don't have to return to their old levels for Americans to recover their purchasing power. That can come through a slower, less politically sexy process: wages growing faster than prices for a sustained stretch.
- 但这押注于不会再出现通胀冲击的可能性。迄今为止,这一押注已经经历了艰难的十年。
• But that bets on the possibility that there won't be another inflationary shock. And it has been a tough decade so far for such a bet. Reality check:
现实核查:尽管民主党在国会选举中取得进展,但他们并不掌控行政分支,不会拥有足以推翻否决的多数席位,而且当民众对经济不满时,通常由总统而非国会背锅。
For all the Democrats' Congressional gains, they do not control the executive branch, will not have veto-proof majorities and it's generally the president, not Congress, who takes the blame when people are unsatisfied with the economy.
- 尽管如此,随着民主党着眼于 2028 年夺回白宫并保持国会多数派地位,能够指出有助于减轻负担的具体行动,将大有裨益。
• Still, as Democrats look to win back the White House in 2028 and maintain congressional majorities, it would be nice to point to concrete action to help affordability.