就在全球债券投资者开始相信今年抛售潮的最坏时期已过之际，飙升的美国国债收益率让他们不得不重新思考。
Just when global bond investors were starting to believe the worst of this year’s selloff was over, surging Treasury yields are making them think again.
动摇全球最大债券市场的力量几乎没有消退迹象，顽固的通胀和美联储鹰派言论令交易员为更激进的加息做好准备，而不断增长的债务供给更增加了收益率上行的压力。更引人注目的是，即使英伟达公司周围的动荡震荡股市和风险情绪，抛售仍在持续，这打破了美国国债已重夺传统避险资产地位的希望。
The forces roiling the world’s biggest debt market show little sign of fading, as stubborn inflation and hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric have traders bracing for more aggressive interest-rate hikes, while growing debt supply adds to the upward pressure on yields. More remarkably, the selloff persisted even as turmoil around Nvidia Corp. rattled stocks and risk sentiment, undercutting hopes that Treasuries had reclaimed their traditional haven role.
“这是比新冠疫情期间和全球金融危机更艰难的环境，”总部位于悉尼的施罗德投资基金经理凯莉·伍德表示，她目前做空美国国债。“那些是大方向性行情——如今关乎滚动供给冲击和剧烈的利率波动。我们仍须警惕收益率一路走高直至年底。”美国国债经历了惨淡的一周，损失已超出对政策敏感的短端。周二和周四两年期美债收益率的累计涨幅——周三现金市场休市——为2023年3月以来最大，而10年期收益率涨幅为2025年4月以来最大。截至亚洲时段周五，两年期收益率报4.86%，10年期报5.12%。
“This is a tougher environment than during the Covid pandemic and the global financial crisis,” said Kellie Wood, a Sydney-based money manager at Schroders Plc who is currently short Treasuries. “Those were big directional moves — today it’s about rolling supply shocks and wild rates volatility. We still have to be on alert for higher yields all the way till year end.”Treasuries have had a bruising week, with the damage stretching beyond the policy-sensitive front end. The combined jump in two-year US yields on Tuesday and Thursday — with cash markets closed Wednesday — was the biggest since March 2023, while the increase in 10-year yields was the most since April 2025. By Friday in Asia, the two-year yield was at 4.86% and the 10-year at 5.12%.
这与仅一周前形成急剧反转，当时美国中期选举民主党大胜和对人工智能的担忧促使投资者蜂拥买入美国国债避险。那一波看涨仓位此后已被颠覆，美联储理事沃勒支持加息，并表示若通胀持续加速，他将赞成加息半个百分点。高于预期的消费者物价报告强化了这一转向，达拉斯联储主席洛根的言论亦是如此。
It’s a sharp U-turn from just a week ago, when a Democratic sweep in the US midterms and jitters over AI sent investors flocking to Treasuries for safety. That rush of bullish positioning has since been upended, after Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed a rate increase and said he’d favor a half-point hike if inflation keeps accelerating. A hotter-than-expected consumer price report reinforced the shift, as did comments from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
压力正波及全球市场，美国国债设定了全球借贷成本的基准。彭博社一项衡量美国国债回报的指标在收益率最新飙升后再度下滑，抹去了此前将今年跌幅收窄至1%的反弹成果。
The pressure is rippling through global markets, with Treasuries setting the benchmark for borrowing costs worldwide. A Bloomberg gauge of returns on Treasuries is sliding again after the latest surge in yields, reversing a recovery that had pared its loss this year to 1%.
“发达市场主权债券的抛售远未结束，”Brandywine Global Investment Management投资组合经理Tracy Chen表示，并补充称主要驱动因素依然强劲。“10年期国债收益率的下一个目标位应指向5.5%，随后可能再度进入整固。”彭博策略师观点……“两年期美国国债的抛售在周五公布下一轮通胀数据时仍有延续空间。”——彭博Markets Live策略师Alyce Andres。
“The selloff of developed-market sovereign bonds is far from over,” said Tracy Chen, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, adding that the main drivers are still going strong. “The next target level for 10-year should head toward 5.5% and then probably consolidate again.”What Bloomberg Strategists Say... “The selloff in two-year Treasuries has room to extend when the next leg of inflation data is released on Friday.”— Alyce Andres, Markets Live strategist.
对部分投资者而言，收益率上升正创造机会。对冲基金K2 Asset Management的George Boubouras认为，10年期美国国债在5.3%左右具有吸引力，并表示近期的反弹并非虚假启动。
For some investors, the rise in yields is creating an opportunity. George Boubouras at hedge fund K2 Asset Management sees 10-year Treasuries as attractive at around 5.3%, saying the recent rally wasn’t a false start.
“我们在5.3%时买入，并将持续买入，直到其突破至新水平，”身处墨尔本的Boubouras表示，他是该公司董事总经理兼研究、投资与顾问主管。
“We’re buyers of it at 5.3%, and we’ll be buyers of that until it pops to the new level,” said Boubouras, its managing director and head of research, investments and advisory, in Melbourne.
美国之外，日本和澳大利亚的收益率正攀升回多年高位附近。法国收益率因对该国财政前景和政治不稳定的担忧而飙升，在11月初缓和后也正恢复升势。
Beyond the US, yields in Japan and Australia are climbing back toward multiyear highs. Those in France, which have surged on concern over the nation’s fiscal outlook and political instability, are also resuming their advance after easing earlier in November.
交易员正加大对全球政策收紧的押注。根据彭博汇编的数据，掉期定价显示，未来一年八个经济体的政策利率平均变动将超过50个基点，高于11月6日看到的33个基点，后者为6月以来最低水平。
Traders are ramping up bets on tighter policy globally. Swaps are pricing in an average change of more than 50 basis points in policy rates over the coming year across eight economies, up from 33 basis points seen on Nov. 6, which was the lowest since June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“除非股票等风险资产发生彻底崩盘，或者油价回落到战前水平，否则风险在于银行将不得不采取比市场目前预期更进一步的行动，”标准银行集团驻伦敦的G10策略主管Steven Barrow在一份报告中写道。
“Barring an abject crash in risk assets like stocks, or a return of oil prices to pre-war levels, the risk is that the banks will have to go further than the market is currently assuming,” Steven Barrow, head of G10 strategy at Standard Bank Group in London, wrote in a note.
施罗德投资的Wood看到的是一个更加分化的图景。虽然随着通胀加速、经济增长跑赢世界其他地区，美国利率可能需要上升——潜在幅度超过5%——但她在澳大利亚和欧洲债券上持有多头头寸，押注那里的央行将在2027年宽松以防范衰退。
Schroders’ Wood sees a more divided picture. While US rates may need to rise — potentially over 5% — as inflation accelerates and growth outpaces the rest of the world, she is long bonds in Australia and Europe, betting central banks there will ease in 2027 to head off recession.
“2027年将是分化之年，每个经济体都处于周期的不同阶段，”她说。“2027年是主动债券基金经理之年。”
“2027 will be the year of dispersion with each economy at a different stage of the cycle,” she said. “2027 is the year for the active bond manager.”