随着联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）最后一次会议将于12月8日召开，通胀已重新成为美联储的心头大患。
As the final meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee looms on Dec. 8, inflation has reemerged as the Fed's bugbear.
通胀已连续五年多高于美联储2%的目标，美联储官员正在敲响警钟。专家和交易员认为，12月加息25个基点是最可能的情形。
Inflation has run above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, and Fed officials are sounding the alarm. Experts and traders see a 25-basis-point hike in December as the most likely scenario.
年初时，美联储对美国经济持乐观态度。通胀似乎呈下行趋势。唐纳德·特朗普总统关税带来的冲击正在减弱。经济学家预测央行可能会降息。然而，央行被迫在9月首次自2023年以来加息，加息25个基点，因为通胀已连续五年多高于美联储2%的目标，重新成为其心头大患。
At the start of the year, the Federal Reserve was sanguine about the American economy. Inflation seemed to be trending down. The shock from President Donald Trump's tariffs was abating. Economists projected the central bank could lower rates Instead, the central bank was forced to raise rates in September for the first time since 2023, hiking 25 basis points as inflation, which has run above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years reemerged as its bugbear.
随着联邦公开市场委员会最后一次会议将于12月8日召开，10月通胀读数高于预期，环比上涨0.4%，而道琼斯调查的经济学家预测为0.3%。所谓核心CPI上涨0.3%，预测为0.2%。
As the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting looms on Dec. 8, October's inflation reading was higher than expected 0.4% month-on-month versus the 0.3% predicted in a Dow Jones survey of economists. So-called core CPI increased 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast.
根据CME美联储观察工具，近88%的交易员预期下个月再次加息25个基点。通胀与生活成本生活成本一直是美国民众心中的首要问题。副总统JD·万斯将其作为共和党在中期选举中失去大量阵地的原因之一。
Almost 88% of traders expect another 25-basis-point hike next month, according to the CME Fedwatch tool Inflation and the cost of living The cost of living has been a top issue on Americans' minds. Vice President JD Vance cited it as a reason the Republican Party lost so much ground in the midterm elections.
芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比周二在接受《PBS新闻小时》采访时表示：“我们手头有一个正在发展中的真正的通胀问题。”他补充说，价格是“每个人都在意的事”，并称通胀数据“接近令人不安”。
"We've got a real inflation issue on our hands that has been developing," Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview with "PBS NewsHour " on Tuesday, adding that prices are "on everyone's mind" and calling inflation readings "borderline disturbing."
理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周二表示，一份火热的通胀报告可能会促使他在12月份主张加息半个百分点，并补充说，如果核心消费者价格指数（CPI）“在0.3%左右”，这就应当在考虑之列。华侨银行集团研究部G7经济学家切斯特·廖周四表示：“最新的CPI数据强化了近期收紧货币政策的理由，尽管加息25个基点对12月来说应该就足够了。”
Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday that a hot inflation report could push him toward advocating for a half-point increase in December, adding this should be on the table if core CPI were "around 0.3%." "The latest CPI print strengthens the near-term case for tightening, even though a 25 basis point hike should be sufficient for December," Chester Liaw, G7 Economist at OCBC Group Research, said on Thursday.
PGIM首席美国经济学家罗伯特·索金周四在一份报告中表示，即便加息，通胀推力可能依然会存在。
Even with a hike, inflationary impulses could remain, Robert Sockin, chief U.S. economist at PGIM, said in a note Thursday.
索金表示，随着民主党明年控制国会，特朗普可能会利用行政行动来提高关税。
With the Democrats in control of Congress next year, Trump could use executive actions to increase tariffs, Sockin said.
索金表示，由于劳动力市场保持稳定，他预计今年的加息不会破坏美国经济“很大一部分”的稳定性，这为未来的加息留下了可能。
Since the labor market remains stable, Sockin said, he doesn't expect rising interest rates this year to derail "significant portions" of the U.S. economy, leaving open the door to future increases.
索金补充说：“我们继续预计美联储将加息100个基点，下一次加息将在12月进行，此后按季度进行。”
"We continue to expect the Fed to hike rates by 100 bps with the next increase coming in December and quarterly thereafter," Sockin added.