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政治报

民调:民主党人实际上很团结。目前如此Poll: Democrats are actually united. For now.

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民主党长期交战的意识形态派系已达成缓和,最新《政治报》(POLITICO)民调数据显示。但这种团结可能不会持久。

Democrats’ long-warring ideological factions have reached a détente, new POLITICO Poll data shows. It may not last.

根据最新民调,一半进步派和温和派现在表示,自大选以来,该党变得“有些”或“更加”团结。该民调由PF Global于上周末进行。所有人都认同,民主党主导的国会首要任务——高于一切——是降低生活成本。

Half of progressives and moderates now say the party is “somewhat” or “much more” unified since the election, according to the latest survey, conducted last weekend by PF Global. And everyone agrees on what the Democratic-led Congress needs to do first, above anything else: bring down the cost of living.

民主党在中期选举中取得的胜利规模和范围,似乎暂时平息了长期助推该党派系对峙的“当选能力”质疑。进步派在明显的紫色选区(摇摆选区)翻转了众议院选区并赢得了参议院席位。许多温和派候选人几十年来首次在深红选区(共和党铁票仓)实现翻盘。综合来看,民主党有望迎来本世纪以来在众议院的最大多数优势。

The size and sweep of Democrats’ midterms romp appears to have temporarily quelled the electability questions that fueled the long-running standoff between the party’s factions. Progressives flipped House districts and snagged Senate seats on plainly purple turf. Many moderate candidates flipped deep-red territory for the first time in decades. Put together, Democrats are now headed for their biggest House majority of the century.

“我们将拥有一个进入国会的庞大大帐篷政党,我认为这正是民众想要的,”资深民主党策略师皮特·吉安格雷科(Pete Giangreco)表示,他在过去这个周期中参与了众议院、参议院和州长竞选。“他们不想要这些意识形态分歧。”如今,三分之二的民主党中期选举选民认为进步派让该党变得更强大——远高于选举日前41%的比例,据选前和选后民调显示。在自称温和派的民主党人中,这一认同上升了26个百分点,从33%升至59%。在进步派中,则从58%升至74%。

“We’ve got this great big-tent party that’s coming into Congress, and I think that’s what people want,” said Pete Giangreco, a veteran Democratic strategist who worked across House, Senate and gubernatorial races this past cycle. “They don’t want these ideological divisions” Today, two out of three Democratic midterm voters believe that progressives make their party stronger — considerably higher than the 41% who said so before Election Day, according to polls taken before and after the midterms. Among self-described moderate Democrats, that belief has risen 26 points, from 33% to 59%. Among progressives, it’s risen from 58% to 74%.

“如果人们花更多时间攻击其他民主党人,而不是想办法作为一个团队合作,我不确定他们的优先次序是否正确,”温和派参议员埃莉萨·斯洛特金(Elissa Slotkin,民主党-密歇根州)对《政治报》表示。但这种团结能持续多久尚不清楚。

“If people are spending more time going after other Democrats instead of figuring out how to work together as a team, then I'm not sure that they've got the right priorities,” moderate Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) told POLITICO. But it’s not clear how long the unity will last.

民调显示,民主党联盟内部的裂痕已经开始重新显现,预示着国会山乃至2028年大选前可能出现党内斗争。民主党人在优先事项的大方向上达成一致,但在立法者行动的力度以及希望看到何种类型的总统提名人选上存在分歧。

The polling reveals cracks are already starting to reemerge within Democrats’ coalition, foreshadowing potential intraparty fights to come on Capitol Hill and beyond into 2028. Democrats agree on the broad strokes of their priorities, but they diverge on the scope of lawmakers’ approach and the kind of presidential nominee they’d like to see.

“民主党人不必对这所谓的‘蓝色浪潮’或‘蓝色海啸’沾沾自喜,”即将上任的亚利桑那州第六选区众议员乔安娜·门多萨(JoAnna Mendoza)表示。“他们需要专注于确保给民众带来切实缓解、采取实际行动,因为这才是民众当前的需求。”民调印证了民主党人从上周二选举中得出的两个近乎一致的结论,这两个结论已在塑造2028年总统大选的暗线初选:选民想要选出“斗士”——并希望他们降低高昂的生活成本。

“Democrats, they don’t need to be getting too big-headed about this quote-unquote blue wave or blue tsunami,” said incoming Arizona 6th District Rep. JoAnna Mendoza. “What they need to focus on is making sure that we’re bringing people relief and that we’re taking action because that’s what people need right now.”The poll bears out two of Democrats’ near-universal takeaways from last Tuesday that are already shaping the shadow 2028 presidential primary: Voters want to elect fighters — and they want them to cut down high costs.

绝大多数民主党中期选举选民——78%——表示,降低生活成本应是民主党明年掌控国会后的首要任务。近乎同等比例的美国人,即71%,持相同看法。

The overwhelming majority of Democratic midterm voters — 78% — say bringing down the cost of living should be Democrats’ top focus as they come into control of Congress next year. Nearly as many, 71%, of Americans said the same.

但在具体路径上,民主党选民内部存在分歧。《政治》(POLITICO)民调数据显示,47%的民主党中期选举选民倾向于由主张大刀阔斧的系统性改革和政府干预以减少不平等的民主党人来制定下届国会议程,而39%的人倾向于主张务实且有针对性的经济解决方案的民主党人。

But Democratic voters internally disagree on approach. The POLITICO Poll data shows 47% of the party’s midterm voters prefer the next Congress’ agenda be set by Democrats who want major systemic reforms and government intervention to reduce inequality, compared to 39% who prefer Democrats who want pragmatic and targeted economic solutions.

进步派中占多数的57%选择系统性改革。温和派则在系统性改革(43%)和针对性经济解决方案(44%)之间势均力敌。这些分歧有望蔓延至总统竞选舞台。尽管选民普遍认同想要一位“斗士”型候选人,但一半的进步派仍认为,持有其意识形态的人将是2028年最具当选潜力的人选之一,而仅有三分之一强的温和派(36%)认为,他们阵营的人最有胜算。

A majority of progressives, 57%, choose systemic reform. Moderates, meanwhile, are split between systemic reform (43%) and targeted economic solutions (44%) Those splits are poised to spill onto the presidential campaign trail. Even as voters broadly agree on wanting a “fighter” candidate, half of progressives still think someone with their ideology would be among the most electable in 2028, while just over a third of moderates, 36%, say someone in their lane has the best shot.

几位可能的白宫竞选者正试图推动公开休战,认为派系内斗目前需要退居次要地位。

Several possible White House aspirants are trying to push a public truce, arguing that factional infighting needs to take a backseat for now.

宾夕法尼亚州州长乔什·夏皮罗在回答《政治报》记者提问时表示:“我不认为任何选民会那样看待问题。”当时记者在Crooked Media的选后会议上询问,中期选举是否有进步派或温和派的启示。“无论你在上届大选中投给特朗普还是哈里斯,你的物价依然高得离谱。人们想看到政府的成果。”

"I don't think any voters think about it that way," Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro told reporters when asked by POLITICO whether there was a progressive or moderate takeaway from the midterms at Crooked Media's post-election conference in D.C. "People want to see the results of their government because whether you voted for Trump or Harris in the last election, your prices are still too damn high."

进步派众议员罗·卡纳在选后采访中说,“我们在中期选举中全面具备当选能力”,而进入2028年的问题是“谁拥有对美国最好的愿景”。

Progressive Rep. Ro Khanna, in a post-election interview, said “we had electability across the board” in the midterms and that the question heading into 2028 is “who has the best vision for America.”

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