对民主党而言，胜利的规模至关重要。进步派与温和派整个选举周期都在争论，如果周二获胜，谁有资格邀功。一项新的《政治报》民调显示，胜利越大，民主党人越倾向于将其视为推出更多进步派候选人的授权。
For Democrats, the size of their victory matters. Progressives and moderates have been sparring all cycle over who will get to claim credit if they win on Tuesday. A new POLITICO Poll shows that the bigger the win, the more Democrats appear inclined to see it as a mandate to run more progressive candidates.
如果下周的胜利规模小于预期，将使该党——以及选民——在前进方向上陷入分歧。
A smaller-than-expected victory next week would leave the party — and voters — torn over which direction to go.
结果显示，中期选举将对民主党下一阶段的身份认同之争产生重大影响——并可能为进步派在关键的2028年总统大选前提供新的弹药。党内人士正密切关注那些内斗公开化的竞选：从阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德争夺密歇根州参议员、特洛伊·杰克逊争夺缅因州参议员，到兰迪·比列加斯在加利福尼亚州的众议员竞选和曼尼·鲁蒂内尔在科罗拉多州的竞选。
The results reveal that the midterm election will have major implications over the next stage of the Democratic Party war over their identity — and could give progressives fresh ammunition ahead of a critical 2028 presidential race. Party insiders are closely watching contests where that infighting has been on display: From Abdul El-Sayed’s battle for Michigan Senate and Troy Jackson’s for Maine Senate, to Randy Villegas’ House race in California and Manny Rutinel’s in Colorado.
十多位民主党党务工作者和策略师在接受采访时表示，双方阵营都已准备好将“蓝色浪潮”视为对自己路线的认可。主要超级政治行动委员会和竞选公司正在完成策略备忘录，并敲定一系列选后会议的议程，意在宣称自己的路线才是该党的未来。
More than a dozen Democratic Party operatives and strategists said in interviews that both factions are already preparing to see a blue wave as validation of its own approach. Top super PACs and campaign firms are finishing strategy memos and finalizing lineups for a slate of post-election conferences where they intend to claim their way is the party’s future.
“俗话说：胜利有千个母亲，对吧？”民主党人、著作《强底线，无上限》的作者奥利弗·利比说，这本书成了众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯本周期的呐喊口号。
“You know what they say: Victory has a thousand mothers, right?” said Oliver Libby, the Democratic author behind the book “Strong Floor, No Ceiling,” which became a rallying cry for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries this cycle.
由PF Global进行的调查发现，对于下周胜利规模若小于预期对未来选举意味着什么，民主党人几乎势均力敌：37%认为这将发出信号，表明需要在下届选举推出更多进步派候选人，而35%认为这将表明该党应推出更多温和派候选人。另有28%表示不知道。
The survey, conducted by PF Global, found Democrats are nearly evenly split over what a smaller-than-expected victory next week would mean for future elections: 37% said it would signal a need to run more progressive candidates in the next election, while 35% said it would show the party should run more moderates. Another 28% said they didn’t know.
这些分歧主要沿着意识形态界线划分。在自认为是进步派的人群中，52% 表示，如果胜利幅度小于预期，将表明民主党应该推出更多进步派候选人。与此同时，45% 的自认为是温和派者——占相对多数——认为同样的结果将证明该党应提名更多温和派，而只有 28% 认为应推出更多进步派。
Those divisions largely fall along ideological lines. Among self-identified progressives, 52% said a smaller-than-expected victory would show that Democrats should run more progressive candidates. Meanwhile, a 45% plurality of self-identified moderates said that the same result would be evidence that the party should nominate more moderates, while just 28% percent said to run more progressives.
但如果民主党在关键竞选中全胜——调查中将其呈现为“大胜”——进步派和温和派都倾向于在下一次选举中推出更多进步派候选人。61% 的自认为是进步派者——占多数——表示这将表明该党应推出更多进步派候选人，而 35% 的自认为是温和派者同意这一看法（相比之下，若胜利幅度较小，仅 28% 的温和派持此观点）。
But if Democrats sweep key races — presented in the survey as a “large victory” — both progressives and moderates move toward running more progressive candidates in the next election. A majority of self-identified progressives — 61% — said it would show that the party should run more progressive candidates, while 35% of self-identified moderates agreed (compared with the 28% who said this for a smaller margin of victory).
根据该民调，民主党中期选举选民中的多数，包括自认为是进步派和温和派的多数，也表示大胜将意味着该党拥有 2028 年总统大选的制胜策略。
A majority of Democratic midterm voters, including majorities of both self-identified progressives and moderates, also said a large victory would mean the party has a winning strategy for the 2028 presidential election, according to the poll.
“如果民主党还有半个脑细胞，他们就会寻找这两股力量的共同点，”资深民主党策略师、曾为两派知名候选人提供建议的查克·罗查说。“谁能将这两者结合，谁最终就会成为 2028 年的中流砥柱。”进步派渴望周二的选举结果能强化他们的论点，即该党应进一步向左转，且他们的候选人能在竞争激烈的大选中获胜。多年来，他们一直感觉被党内建制派忽视，后者深信只有更温和的候选人才能蚕食特朗普的联盟。
"If Democrats had half a brain cell, they would look for the things that those two movements have in common,” said Chuck Rocha, a veteran Democratic strategist who has advised prominent candidates in both camps. “Whoever can combine these two things is who's going to end up being somebody who is going to be a stalwart in ‘28." Progressives are eager for Tuesday’s results to bolster their argument that the party should move further to the left and that their candidates can win in competitive general elections. They’ve spent years feeling like they were being discounted by the party’s establishment wing, which was convinced that only more moderate candidates could cut into Trump’s coalition.
进步派将一系列关键众议院和参议院竞选——他们支持的候选人在初选中击败了更温和的对手——视为有力的佐证，其中最引人注目的莫过于艾赛义德在摇摆州密歇根的标志性参议院竞选。他们表示，若能在那里获胜，将有助于为他们阵营的一些大腕——如众议员亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯（民主党-纽约州）和罗·卡纳（民主党-加利福尼亚州）——竞选总统提供跳板。这两位众议员以及包括参议员伯尼·桑德斯（无党籍-佛蒙特州）在内的其他一批进步派代言人，都已深入一线助选。
Progressives have cast a slate of battleground House and Senate races where their candidates felled more moderate primary rivals as major proof points — none more so than El-Sayed in purple Michigan’s marquee Senate race. A victory there, they say, could help springboard some of their biggest stars, like Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), for presidential bids. Both representatives and a slate of other progressive surrogates up through Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have hit the trail to help.
“我们2026年的指路明灯，是要证明这样一个理念：大胆、旨在撼动体制的经济斗士可以在任何地方获胜，包括摇摆州和红州，作为2028年总统大选的前奏，”进步变革竞选委员会联合创始人亚当·格林表示。“我们认为，选举结束后我们将拥有大量可利用的素材。对我们来说，阿卜杜勒就是典型案例。”根据《政治新闻网》查阅的一份草案，进步变革竞选委员会正在起草一份备忘录，吹捧其预测的“选举赢家的两个共同主题：局外人和挑战企业权力的经济斗士”。
“Our North Star in 2026 is to prove the concept that bold, shake up the system economic fighters can win anywhere, including purple and red areas, as a prelude to the presidential election in 2028,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee. “We think we will have plenty to work with after the election. For us, Abdul is Exhibit A.” PCCC is drafting a memo touting what it predicts as “two common themes in election winners: Outsiders and economic fighters who challenge corporate power,” according to a draft viewed by POLITICO.
与此同时，温和派则准备引用选举结果，作为证据证明建立广泛联盟有助于民主党在共和党大本营中具有竞争力。
Moderates, meanwhile, are poised to point to results as evidence that building broad coalitions can help Democrats compete in Republican strongholds.
“解读大战已经开始了，”中间派智库“第三条道路”联合创始人马特·贝内特说，该智库一直在进行广告分析和选民民调，并计划在选举日后发布调查结果。“[进步派]将会挑选他们赢下的那几场竞选，然后说，……因此每个人都应该向左转。”民主党组织“The Bench”（意为“替补席”，致力于支持具有现实世界经验的候选人，如教师、护士或退伍军人）的一份备忘录吹捧得克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科和堪萨斯州的亚当·汉密尔顿等招募对象，将其作为该组织方法行之有效的证据。公开民调显示，塔拉里科和汉密尔顿在曾经稳固的红州深红选区处于有竞争力的位置。
“The interpretation game is already under way,” said Matt Bennett, co-founder of the centrist think-tank Third Way, which has been conducting advertising analysis and polling the electorate, with plans to release its findings after Election Day. “[Progressives] are going to cherry pick the couple of races that they win, and they are going to say, therefore … everybody should go to the left.”A memo from The Bench — a Democratic organization that supports candidates with real-world experience, such as teachers, nurses or veterans — touts recruits like James Talarico in Texas and Adam Hamilton in Kansas as evidence of the strength of its approach working. Public polling shows Talarico and Hamilton in a competitive position in once-solid safe red states.
“当民主党建制派大部分人还在忙着研究如何与劳动者对话时，我们的答案更简单：让他们来参选，”本周发布的这份备忘录写道。
“While much of the Democratic establishment was busy studying how to talk to working people, our answer was simpler: Run them,” the memo released this week reads.
“我看到民主党人，2020年初选中的许多人，采纳了一些简直就是选举毒药的立场，”民主党策略师利斯·史密斯说，她是皮特·布蒂吉格2020年总统竞选活动的设计师之一，现任The Bench高级顾问，并与The Bench的姊妹组织“多数派民主党人”合作。“当时有民主党人主张将非法越境非刑事化、削减警察经费，诸如此类。我们作为一个政党绝不能回头走那条路。如果我们再走那条路，就无法成为多数党。”
“I saw Democrats, a lot of people in the 2020 primary, adopt positions that were just electoral poison,” said Democratic strategist Lis Smith, an architect of Pete Buttigieg's 2020 presidential campaign who is a senior adviser to The Bench and works with The Bench’s sister organization, Majority Democrats. “You had Democrats say decriminalize border crossing, defund the police, and things like that. And we just can't go back there as a party. We're not going to be a majority party if we go down that road again.”
蓝狗联盟政治行动委员会（Blue Dog PAC，一个温和派民主党团体，由众议员亚当·格雷[民主党-加利福尼亚州]担任主席）的一份最新备忘录被《政治新闻网》获得，其中已经提出了“蓝狗派在2024年和特朗普时代表现优异”的论点。该备忘录指出，该团体参与的十多场众议院竞选，最初被库克政治报告评为“稳固共和党”或“倾向共和党”，目前结束周期时已进入“倾向共和党”、“势均力敌”和“倾向民主党”栏目。
A new memo obtained by POLITICO from Blue Dog PAC, a moderate Democratic group chaired by Rep. Adam Gray (D-Calif.), already makes the case that there was a “Blue Dog overperformance in 2024 and the Trump era.”It points to over a dozen House races the group is involved in that were initially rated as “Solid Republican” or “Likely Republican" by the Cook Political Report, and are finishing the cycle in the “Lean Republican,” “Toss Up” and “Lean Democratic” columns.
但一些民主党人表示，所有这些关于谁在进步派与温和派之争中获胜的关注，完全偏离了重点。
But some Democrats say that all this focus on who won the progressive-moderate fight is missing the point entirely.
“如果我们确实赢得多数席位，真正做成事才更重要，而不是一堆备忘录宣称是我们导致了胜利，”比尔·奈德哈特说道。他曾参与伯尼·桑德斯2020年总统竞选团队的工作，现正为竞选密歇根州第七国会选区的威尔·劳伦斯提供建议，并致力于助推埃尔-赛义德。
“Actually doing something if we do win majorities, that's more important than a bunch of memos saying we're the reason we won,” said Bill Neidhardt, who worked on Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign and is now advising Will Lawrence, who’s running for Michigan’s 7th District, and working to boost El-Sayed.
他补充道：“无论一个超级政治行动委员会对另一个超级政治行动委员会说‘我们是更好的超级政治行动委员会’——我只觉得，如果这就是你们眼中2026年胜利的样子，那你们就是在让民主党注定在2028年失败。”
“Whether one super PAC says to the other super PAC, ‘We’re the better super PAC’ — I just think if that’s what victory looks like to you in 2026, you’re going to set the Democrats up to lose in 2028,” he added.