我们的土地“令人作呕地乐观。”一位民主党人在选举日前两天这样向我形容她的心情。这似乎捕捉到了进步派和民主党人的总体情绪。所有指标——民调数字、提前投票数据等——大体都指向同一个方向，表明民主党将在众议院获胜，并在参议院也有可能取得类似的胜利。但在竞选的最后几天，进行民调的媒体机构采取了不同寻常的步骤，指出虽然他们努力计算正确的抽样——显然这是准确性的基本步骤——但也有可能偏离目标。
Our Land“Nauseously optimistic.”That’s how one Democrat described her mood to me two days before Election Day. That seems to capture the general sentiment of progressives and Dems. All indicators—poll numbers, early voting figures, and the like—were generally pointing in the same direction, suggesting a Democratic win in the House and the distinct possibility of a similar triumph in the Senate. But in the final days of the campaign, media outfits conducting surveys took the unusual step of pointing that while they endeavor to calculate the right sampling for their polls—obviously, a fundamental step for accuracy—there was a chance they could be off the mark.
所以在我写下这些文字时，希望伴随着焦灼似乎是民主党恰当的姿态。（看看密歇根州海莉·史蒂文斯的肥皂剧般经历。）但如果民主党确实在众参两院中的一院或两院获胜，重要的是他们要记住——一旦庆祝结束——胜利不是战斗的终结，而仅仅是下一场战斗的开始。无论这些中期选举的结果如何，特朗普对美国的攻击不会停止。
So as I write this, hope accompanied by heartburn seems the appropriate stance for Democrats. (See the Haley Stevens soap opera in Michigan.) But if the D’s do prevail in one or both houses of Congress, it will be important for them to keep in mind—once the celebration concludes—that victory is not the end of the battle, but merely the beginning of the next one. Whatever the outcome of these midterm elections, Trump’s assault on America will not cease.
无论哪一方取得成功，都将发出一个信号：美国公众正在挫败唐纳德·特朗普总统强加一个腐败、盗贼统治、威权主义政权于美国的企图。就像塞尔维亚和匈牙利最近的选举一样，这将表明民主倒退可以被减缓，甚至被扭转。这将提醒我们，特朗普的恐惧政治、偏见、仇恨、欺骗、残酷、分裂、好战和煽动民粹并不总是制胜策略。
A success on either side will be a signal that President Donald Trump’s push to impose a corrupt, kleptocratic, authoritarian regime on the United States is being thwarted by the American public. Like the recent elections in Serbia and Hungary, this would show that democratic backsliding can be slowed and perhaps reversed. It would remind us that Trump’s politics of fear, bigotry, hatred, deceit, cruelty, division, warmongering, and demagoguery is not always a winning strategy.
特朗普主义并非不可避免。现实——他大规模驱逐十字军运动的残暴、他反复无常的关税和 plutocratic 政策造成的经济困难、以及那场愚蠢的对伊朗战争和高昂的汽油价格——也拥有一票。
That Trumpism is not inevitable. Reality—the brutality of his mass deportation crusade, the economic hardships caused by his erratic tariffs and plutocratic policies, and the dumb war in Iran and high gas prices—gets a vote.
假设民主党至少控制众议院，他们将不得不发动一场政治战争，并让美国公众做好准备，这将是自亚伯拉罕·林肯时代以来前所未见的。特朗普不会悄无声息地沦为跛脚鸭。在他看来，这依然是他的舞台，他推行专制、腐败和暴行的议程将继续存在。民主党或许能在众议院通过立法，但即便在参议院赢得多数席位，要在那里通过立法也将十分艰难。
Assuming the Democrats gain control of at least the House, they will have to wage and prepare the American public for the subsequent political war, which will be unlike any seen since the days of Abraham Lincoln. Trump is not going to fade quietly into lame-duckness. As far as he’s concerned, this will still be his show, and his agenda of autocracy, corruption, and brutality will remain. Democrats might be able to pass legislation in the House, but doing so in the Senate, even if they win a majority, will be tough. (Remember the filibuster.)
（请记住阻挠议事规则。）而特朗普仍保留否决权。民主党试图通过拨款程序制约特朗普的努力将遭到白宫的挑战或无视。（最高法院，做好准备吧。）在这场混乱中，民主党需要一个故事——一个宏大叙事，为预计将源源不断爆发的与特朗普的冲突提供令人信服的背景。
And Trump retains veto power. Democratic efforts to constrain Trump through the appropriations process will be challenged or ignored by the White House. (SCOTUS, get ready.) Through this chaos, the Democrats will need a story—an overarching narrative that provides compelling context for what will likely be a never-ending stream of conflicts with Trump.
民主党不大可能立即解决（或改善）可负担性危机的基本构成要素：物价上涨以及教育、医疗和住房成本。但他们必须让选民相信他们在努力。如果他们掌控立法机关的任一半边，就能对特朗普政府及其亲信发起调查。特朗普及其心腹无疑会拒绝配合，甚至可能无视国会传票。特朗普的司法部会起诉特朗普官员藐视国会罪吗？特朗普会不对接受国会委员会调查或被传唤的官员和同伙给予赦免——甚至是预防性赦免吗？
It’s unlikely the D’s will be able to immediately address (or improve) the basic components of the affordability crisis: higher prices and the costs of education, healthcare, and housing. But they will need to convince voters they are trying. And if they’re in charge of either half of the legislative branch, they will be able to launch investigations of the Trump administration and its cronies. Trump and his lieutenants will, no doubt, decline to cooperate and perhaps defy congressional subpoenas. Is Trump’s Justice Department going to prosecute Trump officials for contempt of Congress? Is Trump not going to pardon—perhaps preemptively—officials and associates investigated or hauled in by congressional committees?
如果特朗普拒绝接受或屈从于国会的行动和特权，一连串宪法危机可能随之而来。
A string of constitutional crises could ensue if Trump refuses to accept or bend to congressional actions and prerogatives.
在这场混乱之中，民主党需要一个故事——一个宏大叙事，为即将源源不断爆发的与特朗普的冲突提供令人信服的背景。这正是他们在特朗普第二次执政伊始未能做到的。
Through this chaos, the Democrats will need a story—an overarching narrative that provides compelling context for what will likely be a never-ending stream of conflicts with Trump. This is precisely what they failed to do at the start of Trump’s second stint as president.
本通讯的老读者可能还记得，在那些日子里，我曾屡次严厉批评民主党，没有明确告知公众，特朗普正在发动一场旨在摧毁政府的战争，以便为一个腐败且专制的政权铺平道路，在其中他可以作为暴君统治，并为自己和他的亲信攫取数十亿美元。
Longtime readers of this newsletter might recall that during those days, I frequently chastised Democrats for not clearly informing the public that Trump was mounting a war to destroy government in order to pave the way for a corrupt and authoritarian regime, in which he could rule as a tyrant and grab billions of dollars for himself and his chums.
民主党确实抱怨过特朗普对美国国际开发署、文官体系、公共卫生体系、环境和金融保障措施等发起的个别攻击。但当特朗普将这些步骤呈现为他缩减并重塑政府、以迎来“黄金时代”繁荣的宏大努力的一部分时，民主党反复错失良机，未能告诉公民：特朗普、埃隆·马斯克、“政府效率部”那些家伙以及他们的爪牙，正致力于削弱政府，为他们自己的掠夺和劫掠扫清道路。
The Democrats did complain about Trump’s individual assaults on the US Agency for International Development, the civil service, the public health system, environmental and financial safeguards, and so on. But as Trump presented such steps as part of his grand effort to scale back and remake government so a “golden age” would flourish, the Democrats repeatedly missed the chance to tell the citizenry that Trump, Elon Musk, the DOGE dudes, and their minions were on a mission to weaken the government to clear the path for their own plundering and pillaging.
这是赤裸裸的阶级战争。是寡头们的复仇。然而民主党——他们诚然缺乏像特朗普那样大声疾呼的“霸凌讲坛”——并未传达这一点。他们没有推出任何反叙事，来回应特朗普的虚假故事和虚假繁荣承诺。
It was pure class warfare. The revenge of the oligarchs. Yet the Democrats—who admittedly lacked a bully pulpit like the one Trump bellowed from—did not convey this. They fielded no counternarrative to Trump’s bogus tale and false promises of prosperity.
这些中期选举给国家提供了一个纠偏的机会。一个停止挖坑的机会。
These midterms offer the nation a chance for a course correction. To stop digging.
这一次，他们需要专注于政治中最基本的要素之一：讲故事。特朗普将大喊，他正遭到邪恶的“深层政府”、邪恶媒体以及热爱跨性别者、想要摧毁美国的共产党人的攻击。民主党必须提供一个反叙事，让选民保持关注，并超越将自己的政策吹捧为解决经济问题的最佳良药。我相信，我和其他人将对此有更多发言，如果民主党有幸能从权力地位与特朗普正面交锋的话。但在叙事控制权之争中，开始永远不算太早。
This time around, they will need to focus on one of the most essential elements of politics: storytelling. Trump will be shouting that he’s under attack by the nefarious Deep State, the evil media, and trans-loving communists who want to destroy America. The Democrats will have to offer a counterplotline that keeps voters engaged and goes beyond hailing their policies as the best remedies for what ails the economy. I’m sure I and others will have more to say about this, should the Democrats be so fortunate as to clash with Trump from a position of power. But in a fight over narrative control, it’s never too early to start.
特朗普时代对美国大部分人来说是一段令人筋疲力尽的时期。它威胁着长期指导这个国家的价值观和原则，尽管并不完美。我们了解到，民主不能被视为理所当然——我们的共和国比许多人（包括我们中的愤世嫉俗者）曾经相信的，更容易受到谎言、部落主义、欺骗、威权主义和欺诈的侵蚀。而且，造成的许多损害无法挽回。
The Trump era has been an exhausting stretch for much of America. It has threatened values and principles that have long guided, even if imperfectly, the nation. We’ve learned that democracy cannot be taken for granted—that our republic is far more vulnerable to lies, tribalism, deception, authoritarianism, and grift than many, including the cynics among us, once believed. And much of the damage cannot be undone.
我们正失去一代年轻科学家，他们在特朗普攻击大学基础科学研究后移民到了其他国家。我们的外交事务体系和国际援助体系已被摧毁，不会很快重建——公共卫生系统也是如此。应对气候变化的努力受到破坏，宝贵的时间被浪费。家庭被拆散，守法居民被拘留、驱逐，并被迫躲藏。
We’re losing a generation of young scientists who’ve immigrated to other nations after Trump’s attack on university-based scientific research. Our Foreign Service and international aid system have been decimated and will not be quickly rebuilt—ditto for our public health system. Attempts to address climate change have been subverted, with valuable time going to waste. Families have been torn apart, with law-abiding residents detained, deported, and forced into hiding.
尽管如此，这些中期选举为国家提供了一个纠正航向的机会，停止继续挖坑。无论结果如何，这次选举本身不会是逆转。它将决定逆转是否可能。在失去更多之前，它可以提供“去特朗普化”的机会。选民今天将告诉我们，这是否是他们所寻求的。然后，为美国而战将继续，并变得更加激烈。
Still, these midterms offer the nation a chance for a course correction. To stop digging. Whatever the results, this election will not be a reversal in itself. It will determine if one is possible. It can provide the opportunity for de-Trumpification before more is lost. The voters will tell us today whether that’s what they’re looking for. Then the fight for America will continue and become even more intense.