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民主党胜选将使一批意识形态多元的新议员于一月进入国会Democratic victories will send an ideologically diverse crop of new lawmakers to

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民主党新近崛起,开始争夺党内未来走向主导权。在民主党迎来机遇之际,长期内斗的各派系正借中期选举结果为自己造势,主张把党引向中间路线或左翼路线。

Democrats, Newly Ascendant, Begin a Fight to Shape the Party’s Future At a moment of opportunity for the party, its long-feuding factions are seizing on the midterm results to make their case for tacking to the center or to the left.

堪萨斯州的一位牧师。艾奥瓦州的一位残奥会选手。得克萨斯州的一位前长老会神学院学生。

A pastor in Kansas. A Paralympian in Iowa. A former Presbyterian seminarian in Texas.

本周,民主党扩大了版图,在传统上属于共和党地盘的州取得重大胜利。多年来,民主党几乎已放弃这些州,此次通过争取温和派、独立人士和共和党选民实现了突破。

Democrats expanded their map this week with big wins in traditionally red states that the party had all but written off for years by making appeals to moderate, independent and Republican voters.

与此同时,进步派在密歇根州和缅因州这两个摇摆州赢下关键选战。

At the same time, progressives won key races in two purple states, Michigan and Maine.

这些胜利叠加在一起,构成一场全面胜利,将于明年把一批意识形态多元的民主党新议员送进国会。但围绕民主党应在2028年总统竞选前汲取哪些教训,党内辩论已经展开。

The combined victories amounted to a sweeping triumph that will send an ideologically diverse crop of new Democratic lawmakers to Congress in January, but internal debates are already emerging about what lessons the party should draw ahead of the 2028 presidential campaign.

在中间派看来,结果表明,要翻转本党长期难以取胜的保守派重镇,最佳方式是拥抱温和派候选人和能够吸引更广泛选民群体的立场。进步派则认为,缅因州和密歇根州的胜利表明,左翼民粹主义者能够激发民主党自由派基本盘的热情,并赢回部分曾大批倒向特朗普总统的工薪阶层选民。

For centrists, the results demonstrate that the best way to flip conservative strongholds where their party has long struggled is through embracing moderate candidates and positions that appeal to a broader array of voters. Progressives argue that the victories in Maine and Michigan show that left-wing populists can energize the party’s liberal base and win back some of the working-class voters who had flocked to President Trump.

这场辩论出现之际,民主党正迎来不同寻常的机遇:明年该党将在国会占据大幅多数席位,并寻求把中期选举的势头延续到2028年选举周期。

The debate arrives at a moment of unusual opportunity for the Democratic Party, which will hold large majorities in Congress next year and will seek to carry its midterm momentum into the 2028 cycle.

随着捐助者、官员和政界人士齐聚全国各地的党务会议和自由派集会,庆祝胜利并规划未来,围绕民主党方向的讨论已经在展开。与此同时,潜在总统竞选人选正加快低调筹备,并利用选举结果来为下一位提名人——可能也包括他们自己——造势。

The discussion over the party’s direction is already playing out as donors, officials and politicians converge at party meetings and liberal gatherings across the country to take a victory lap and plan for the future. And as potential presidential contenders accelerate their quiet planning, they are using the results to make a case for the next nominee — and, possibly, themselves.

“有大量非MAGA共和党人和独立人士正在重新审视民主党,并给民主党第二次机会,”正在考虑竞选总统的前芝加哥市长拉姆·伊曼纽尔在接受采访时说。“我并不认为社会主义是赢得他们心灵和头脑的方式。”

“There’s a ton of non-MAGA Republicans and independents that are giving Democrats a second look and a second chance,” Rahm Emanuel, the former Chicago mayor, who is considering a presidential run, said in an interview. “I don’t happen to think socialism is the way to win their hearts and minds.”

他还说:“我们不想再被贴上那个标签了。”加州进步派众议员罗·卡纳也在暗示可能参选,他的评估则不同。

He added: “We don’t want to be identified with that anymore.”Representative Ro Khanna, a California progressive who has also been teasing a bid, had a different assessment.

“结果显示,做进步派并不会带来选举惩罚,”他在接受采访时说。“建制派那些陈旧的论调——他们曾两次输给特朗普——关于他们认为谁可当选、谁不可当选,已经完全不算数了。”温和派的复仇这些早期交锋是一场持续十年的争论的最新一轮,争论关乎民主党的方向和战略。

“The results show that there is no electoral penalty for being a progressive,” he said in an interview. “The stale talking points of the establishment, which lost twice to Trump, about who they deem electable or not electable is totally out the window.”Revenge of the Moderates The early skirmishes are the latest round of a decade-long dispute over the Democratic Party’s direction and strategy.

今年最初几个月,进步派似乎占了上风。在纽约、新泽西和科罗拉多,自由派造反者在蓝色选区击败了温和派对手,并在缅因、密歇根和明尼苏达的参议院初选中获胜。

In the first few months of this year, it appeared as if progressives had the upper hand. Liberal insurgents knocked off moderate rivals in blue districts in New York, New Jersey and Colorado, and they prevailed in Senate primaries in Maine, Michigan and Minnesota.

但在大选中,温和派强势反弹,明确诉诸两党合作,在多年未选出民主党参议员的州以显著优势获胜;在堪萨斯州,民主党更是近一个世纪未选出民主党参议员。在艾奥瓦州,该党参议院提名人乔什·图雷克在竞选最后阶段投放电视广告,讲述他如何反对跨性别运动员参加青少年体育项目。在堪萨斯州,牧师亚当·汉密尔顿直到今年还是注册共和党人,他直接向特朗普选民发出呼吁,并称自己是“一个自由派保守主义者和一个保守派自由主义者”,超越党派政治。

But in the general election, the moderates roared back, using explicitly bipartisan appeals to win by notable margins in states that had not elected Democrats to the Senate in years or, in the case of Kansas, nearly a century. In Iowa, Josh Turek, the party’s nominee for Senate, ran a closing-stretch TV ad about how he opposed transgender athletes participating in youth sports. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton, a pastor who until this year had been a registered Republican, offered direct appeals to Trump voters and described himself as “a liberal conservative and a conservative liberal” who was above party politics.

在得克萨斯州,詹姆斯·塔拉里科倡导一种“爱的政治”,偏离党派之争,聚焦于“上层对下层”,即有钱有势者与普通美国人之间的对立。

And in Texas, James Talarico embraced a “politics of love” that leaned away from partisanship and focused on “top versus bottom,” or the rich and powerful against ordinary Americans.

虽然三人都拥护承诺降低生活成本、对亿万富翁增税的经济民粹主义纲领,但他们也谴责了汉密尔顿所说的“华盛顿的极度两极分化”。

While all three men embraced economic populist platforms that promised to lower costs and raise taxes on billionaires, they also denounced what Mr. Hamilton called the “hyperpolarization in Washington.”

“这些候选人就是打着那种务实纲领竞选的,说我们要专注于影响我们社区的问题,我们要做独立的声音,不把政党和政治放在第一位,”加利福尼亚州众议员亚当·格雷说,他是民主党人,也是温和派蓝狗政治行动委员会的主席。“他们的表现比进步派对手更好。我认为你们会在数据中看到这一点。”左翼的胜利进步派则走了一条不同的胜利之路。

“Those candidates ran on that kind of pragmatic platform, saying we’re going to focus on the issues that impact our community, and we’re going to be independent voices, not putting parties and politics first,” said Representative Adam Gray of California, a Democrat who is the chairman of the moderate Blue Dog PAC. “They did better than their progressive counterparts. I think you’re going to see that in the data.”Victories for the Left Progressives rode a different path to victory.

该党在缅因州、密歇根州和明尼苏达州的参议员候选人把左翼的战斗口号置于竞选核心,承诺建立“全民联邦医疗保险”;呼吁废除移民和海关执法局;并指责以色列在加沙实施种族灭绝。

The party’s Senate candidates in Maine, Michigan and Minnesota placed left-wing rallying cries at the center of their campaigns, promising to establish “Medicare for all”; calling to dismantle the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency; and accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza.

在密歇根州,阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德把其中一些承诺组合成一句一呼一应的口号:“把钱赶出政治,把钱放进你的口袋,全民联邦医疗保险。”在一次采访中,他把自己的胜利归功于他愿意尝试颠覆政治体制。他表示,党内并非所有人都认同这一想法。

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed combined some of those promises into a call-and-response slogan: “Money out of politics, money in your pocket and Medicare for all.”In an interview, he credited his victory to his willingness to try to upend the political system. He suggested that not everyone in his party was on board with that idea.

“我认为我对民主党人的一大批评一直是,我们只治标不治本,”他说。“有些人想治本而不治标,对吧?你得两者都治。”感到乐观的进步派不止他一个。佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯是国会进步派的元老,他在一次采访中宣称取得了近乎完全的胜利。在他背书的候选人中,唯一没有获胜的是安吉·尼克松,这位民主社会主义者在佛罗里达州参议员竞选中惜败。

“I think one of my big critiques of Democrats has often been that we just treat the symptom and not the disease,” he said. “Some people want to treat the disease without treating symptoms, right? You’ve got to treat both.”He wasn’t the only progressive feeling bullish. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the dean of congressional progressives, claimed near-total victory in an interview. Of the candidates he endorsed, the only one who did not win was Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist who fell just short in the Florida Senate race.

桑德斯表示,民主党明年在国会应毫不犹豫地推进进步派议程。他认为,美国选民投票支持重大变革,包括财富税、提高最低工资、全民医保以及结束对外战争。

Mr. Sanders said Democrats should not hesitate to press a progressive agenda next year in Congress. He argued that Americans had voted for major changes, including wealth taxes, a higher minimum wage, universal health care and ending foreign wars.

“他们想要一个为工人阶级挺身而出的政府,一个敢于对抗寡头的政府,一个为工薪家庭办实事的政府,”他说。“我们不能再继续因循守旧、维持现状的政策。”在众议院,得克萨斯州众议员、国会进步派党团主席格雷格·卡萨尔夸口说,他的团体明年将把队伍扩大25名成员。他把中期选举描绘成进步派运动的一次世代性胜利。

“They want a government that stands up for the working class, that takes on the oligarchs, that delivers for working families,” he said. “We can no longer engage in same old, same old, status quo policies.”In the House, Representative Greg Casar of Texas, the chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, boasted that his group would expand its ranks by 25 members next year. He cast the midterms as a generational victory for the progressive movement.

赢得众议院席位的进步派人士包括:环保组织“日出运动”联合创始人威尔·劳伦斯,他翻转了密歇根州一个由共和党人持有的选区;布赖恩·波因德克斯特,他在俄亥俄州东北部击败了一名受丑闻困扰的共和党人;以及兰迪·维列加斯,他在加利福尼亚州一个重新划分的众议院席位中获胜。

Progressive winners of House races included Will Lawrence, a co-founder of an environmental group, the Sunrise Movement, who flipped a Republican-held district in Michigan; Brian Poindexter, who defeated a scandal-tarred Republican in northeast Ohio; and Randy Villegas, who prevailed in a redistricted House seat in California.

“在这个选举周期,进步派下了一个大的新赌注:通过在特朗普大幅获胜的席位上支持民粹主义候选人,我们可以证明民粹主义的进步派信息在任何地方都能获胜,”卡萨尔在接受采访时说。“而且这奏效了。”他还说:“进步派理念赢了。”“他们说的是同样的话”由于民主党获胜如此之多,各意识形态阵营的界限并不都那么清晰。

“This election cycle, the progressives made a big new bet that by endorsing populist candidates in seats Trump won big, we could show that a populist progressive message can win anywhere,” Mr. Casar said in an interview. “And that paid off.”He added, “Progressive ideas won.”‘They Were Saying the Same Things’With so many Democratic wins, not all the ideological lanes were quite so clear.

对于民主党翻转由共和党人持有的席位,温和派和进步派都声称自己有一份功劳。这些席位包括:蒙大拿州西部的工会领袖兼空降消防员萨姆·福斯塔格;宾夕法尼亚州的工会领袖鲍勃·布鲁克斯;以及威斯康星州的政治筹款人丽贝卡·库克。

Both moderates and progressives claimed some credit for the party’s flips of Republican-held seats by Sam Forstag, a union leader and smoke jumper in western Montana; Bob Brooks, a Pennsylvania union leader; and Rebecca Cooke, a Wisconsin political fund-raiser.

民主党领导人试图淡化党内分歧。纽约州参议员查克·舒默和纽约州众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯强调团结。外界普遍预计舒默将成为下一任多数党领袖,杰弗里斯则有望成为议长。他们表示,本党所有候选人的竞选都聚焦于生活成本、腐败和伊朗战争。

Democratic leaders have tried to downplay the party’s divide. Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, who is widely expected to become the next majority leader, and Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, who is poised to become speaker, stressed unity. They said all of the party’s candidates had run by focusing on the cost of living, corruption and the Iran war.

“无论他们是进步派还是温和派,说的都是同样的话,”舒默对记者说。

“Whether they were progressives or moderates, they were saying the same things,” Mr. Schumer told reporters.

尽管如此,党内两翼的一些官员仍从2028年总统选举中提名什么样的民主党人最合适的角度来解读此次结果。

Still, some officials in both wings of the party interpreted the results through the prism of what kind of Democrat would be best to nominate for president in 2028.

随着本周总统竞选角逐升温——伊利诺伊州州长JB·普里茨克周三发布一份备忘录,推介他未来两年的拟议议程——围绕该党方向的争斗将在国会和早期初选州同时展开。

With the jockeying for the presidential race escalating this week — Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois released a memo on Wednesday promoting his proposed agenda for the next two years — the fight over the party’s direction will unfold both in Congress and in the early primary states.

中间派审视的主要目标之一是埃尔-赛义德,他在本党全力出动助选后赢下了密歇根州。

A chief target of the centrist scrutiny was Mr. El-Sayed, who won in Michigan after his party sent its full armada to help him.

前总统巴拉克·奥巴马和前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯为他站台助选。舒默的超级政治行动委员会向这场竞选投入了6700万美元,尽管埃尔-赛义德表示他不会支持舒默担任党领袖。

Former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris stumped for him. Mr. Schumer’s super PAC invested $67 million into the race even though Mr. El-Sayed said he would not back Mr. Schumer to be party leader.

在最后几周,一些党内官员私下抱怨说,如果换成一位更中间派的候选人,花费会更少,还能腾出资金让民主党把竞争性选举的战场扩大到佛罗里达州和密西西比州等地。在密西西比州,随着计票继续,一名温和派候选人在参议院选举中仅领先2000多票。

In the final weeks, some party officials quietly grumbled that a more centrist candidate would have cost less and freed up money for Democrats to expand their playing field of competitive races into places like Florida and Mississippi, where a moderate candidate leads a Senate race by just over 2,000 votes as counting continues.

进步派则指出,埃尔-赛义德遭到了他在初选中的温和派对手的削弱,后者在选战后期出人意料地背书了共和党提名人。

Progressives, for their part, noted that Mr. El-Sayed had been undercut by his moderate primary rival’s surprising late endorsement of the Republican nominee.

总体而言,中间派民主党人认为,尽管进步派候选人获胜,但在蓝州或紫州的表现却不尽如人意。据《纽约时报》估算,民主党有望以约13个百分点的优势赢得全国国会普选票。埃尔-赛义德在参议院竞选中以7个百分点获胜,明尼苏达州的佩吉·弗拉纳根以10个百分点获胜,缅因州的特洛伊·杰克逊以6个百分点获胜。

Broadly, centrist Democrats have argued that progressive candidates, despite winning, underperformed in blue or purple states. Democrats are on track to win the national popular congressional vote by about 13 percentage points, according to estimates by The New York Times. Mr. El-Sayed won his Senate race by seven points, Peggy Flanagan of Minnesota by 10 and Troy Jackson of Maine by six.

“在民主党几十年来未曾赢得的州里大获全胜的人,是那些实践加法政治、而非减法政治的人,”中间偏左的美国进步中心主席尼拉·坦登说。一些其他民主党人已经开始展望下一场竞选。

“The people who won handily in states Democrats haven’t won in decades were the people who practiced the politics of addition, not the politics of subtraction,” said Neera Tanden, the president of the center-left Center for American Progress. Some other Democrats were already looking ahead to the next race.

甚至在周二投票结束前,纽约州众议员亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯的助手们就发布了一份五页的备忘录,详述了她对中期选举民主党人的贡献,并再次阐述了她关于2028年是否寻求总统提名的思考。

Even before the polls closed on Tuesday, aides to Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York released a five-page memo detailing her contributions to midterm Democrats and again articulating her thinking about whether to seek the 2028 presidential nomination.

“在未来几天和几周里,将有大量讨论关于民主党的未来和2028年大选。你可能会被问及是否支持她竞选总统、或在纽约州竞选参议员、或留任众议员,”备忘录总结道。“我们建议你依据这份备忘录的细节回答:奥卡西奥-科尔特斯众议员将继续做她一直做的事:寻找为最多的人做最多好事的方法。”迈克尔·克鲁斯在底特律参与了采访报道。

“In the coming days and weeks, much will be discussed about the future of the Democratic Party and 2028. You may be asked whether you support her running for president or for Senate in New York or staying in the House of Representatives,” the memo concluded. “We’d recommend you rely on the details of this memo and answer that Rep. Ocasio-Cortez will continue to do what she’s always done: look for ways to do the most good for the most people.”Michael Kruse contributed reporting from Detroit.

里德·J·爱普斯坦是《纽约时报》驻华盛顿记者,负责报道竞选和选举。

Reid J. Epstein is a Times reporter covering campaigns and elections from Washington.

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