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为何AI代币价格下跌并非人们可能以为的对AI提供商的利空Why falling AI token prices aren’t the negative for AI providers one might assume

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Investing.com报道,AI代币价格下跌未必会损害AI提供商,因为更便宜的代币会让更多用途值得付费,Yardeni Research指出,并提及Anthropic第三季度收入为169.6亿美元,较第二季度增长47%。

Investing.com -- Falling AI token prices need not hurt AI providers because cheaper tokens make more uses worth paying for, Yardeni Research said, pointing to Anthropic’s third-quarter revenue of $16.96 billion, up 47% from the second quarter.

衡量客户每百万代币支付金额的使用加权Silicon Data LLM代币支出指数,从6月30日至10月初下跌超过40%。

The usage-weighted Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index, which tracks what customers pay per million tokens, fell more than 40% between June 30 and early October.

Yardeni表示,下跌反映了价格竞争以及使用量向更便宜模型的转移。

Yardeni said the decline reflects price competition and a shift in usage toward cheaper models.

Anthropic将其最新高端模型Fable 5.2定价为输入8美元、输出40美元,低于Fable 5.1的输入10美元、输出50美元。

Anthropic priced its newest premium model, Fable 5.2, at $8 for input and $40 for output, down from $10 and $50 for Fable 5.1.

在10月28日的财报电话会议上,Google自有模型每分钟处理的代币量接近320亿个,环比增长40%,较一年前增长超过四倍。

Google’s first-party models were processing nearly 32 billion tokens per minute by its October 28 earnings call, up 40% in a quarter and more than fourfold from a year earlier.

Anthropic第三季度收入较一年前增长1127%,超过了其计算和基础设施支出382%的增长。

Anthropic’s third-quarter revenue rose 1,127% from a year earlier, outpacing a 382% rise in its compute and infrastructure expenses.

环比来看,利润下降。Anthropic从第二季度的9.74亿美元营业利润转为第三季度的5.67亿美元营业亏损,原因是50亿美元的昂贵短期计算费用和20亿美元的非现金捐赠匹配费用。

Quarter to quarter, profit fell. Anthropic swung from a $974 million operating profit in the second quarter to a $567 million operating loss in the third, citing $5 billion of costly short-term compute and a $2.0 billion non-cash donation-matching charge.

单独排除该项费用,仍会留下营业利润,尽管该费用可能会重复出现。包括培训在内的计算和基础设施费用占收入约58%,而第二季度为48%。

Excluding that charge alone would leave an operating profit, though the charge may recur. Compute and infrastructure, including training, took about 58% of revenue, versus 48% in the second quarter.

其他成本也在上升。TrendForce报告称,DRAM合约价格在第二季度上涨近80%,第三季度上涨40%。

Other costs are climbing. DRAM contract prices rose nearly 80% in the second quarter and 40% in the third, TrendForce reported.

根据GetDeploying11月9日的追踪数据,中位数按需GPU租赁价格较一年前上涨9%,H100价格上涨24.7%。

Median on-demand GPU rental prices rose 9% from a year earlier, and H100 prices 24.7%, according to GetDeploying’s November 9 tracker.

根据TIKR的数据,AWS从10月7日起提高了大多数新Nvidia容量块预订的价格,七种实例类型的涨幅至少为15%。

AWS raised prices on most new Nvidia Capacity Block reservations from October 7, with increases of at least 15% on seven instance types, according to TIKR.

生产力提升是供应商的抵消因素。SemiAnalysis 测得,仅靠软件改进,一代英伟达芯片的吞吐量就提高了约 14 倍。Anthropic 表示,Opus 5.5 将客户的单任务成本较 Opus 5 降低了约 40%。

Productivity is the providers’ offset. SemiAnalysis measured roughly 14 times more throughput from one Nvidia chip generation on software improvements alone. Anthropic says Opus 5.5 cut customer costs per task by about 40% compared with Opus 5.

Anthropic 的回头客总计产生的季度收入约为上年同期的 9 倍。Yardeni 表示,尚不清楚他们在经济衰退时是否会继续支出,且考验在于利润上升,而非售出的 Token 数量上升。

Anthropic’s repeat customers generated about nine times their year-earlier quarterly revenue in aggregate. Yardeni said it is unknown whether they would keep spending in a recession, and that the test is rising profits, not rising volumes of tokens sold.

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