关键信息：参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默与共和党竞选委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特有一个共同点：他们都对唐纳德·特朗普开始竞选活动感到非常兴奋。
The Scoop Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and GOP campaign chair Tim Scott have something in common: They’re both really excited for President Donald Trump to hit the campaign trail.
舒默在周三晚间的采访中表示：“当特朗普外出旅行时，他会伤害到一些人的利益；但当他来到某个地区时，这对我们来说反而有利。不过他总是谈论一些无关紧要的事情。”斯科特则将特朗普视为共和党竞选活动中的重要力量——不过他指的是对共和党有利，而非对民主党有利。
“When Trump travels, he hurts people,” Schumer told Semafor in an interview on Wednesday evening. “When he comes to town, that itself helps us. But then he always talks about the wrong things. He talks about things people don’t give a damn about.”Scott described Trump as a critical asset on the campaign trail — albeit for Republicans, not Schumer’s Democrats.
斯科特对记者说：“这次是中期选举，特朗普总统正在做出正确的决策，以帮助我们保持多数席位。因此我相信他的团队和竞选策略，因为他的直觉一直很准。这也是我们如今仍占据多数席位的原因之一。”在特朗普准备前往参议院的关键选区进行竞选活动时，斯科特还巧妙地批评了共和党得克萨斯州候选人肯·帕克斯顿。
帕克斯顿曾在《纽约时报》曝光的音频中表示，得克萨斯州的共和党大会“削弱了我们的支持率”；斯科特则坚决反驳这一观点，认为共和党大会以及特朗普的出席实际上提升了共和党的支持率。
“This is his midterm election,” Scott told reporters of Trump. “President Trump is making the best decisions to keep us in the majority. So I trust his scheduling team and his strategy because his instincts have proven to be good. It’s one of the reasons why we’re in the majority today.”As Trump prepares to crisscross the Senate battleground map, Scott even threw a gentle jab at GOP Texas candidate Ken Paxton, who said on leaked audio reported by The New York Times that the GOP convention in Texas “dropped our numbers.”Scott said Paxton is “just wrong,” insisting that the convention and Trump’s presence boosted Republicans.
不过，舒默与斯科特对选举结果的看法截然不同。斯科特认为共和党会保住参议院的多数席位，理由包括共和党选民的热情高涨、许多选区竞争激烈以及共和党在竞选资金上的巨大优势；他还预测共和党甚至有可能赢得更多席位。而舒默则认为这场争夺多数席位的战斗结果难以预料——这种可能性在一年前几乎没人会相信民主党会获胜。他同时警告说，民主党仍有可能输掉这场选举。
Schumer and Scott otherwise presented dramatically different views of which way the election is going. Scott essentially guaranteed that Republicans will retain the Senate majority, citing improving GOP enthusiasm, a large number of toss-up races, and a huge spending advantage. He predicted his party could even pick up seats.
“胜算五五开，我们正处于胜利的边缘。但有两件事可能会让我们输掉比赛：第一，他们可能会通过不正当手段窃取选举结果；第二，就是资金问题——他们的财力实在过于雄厚，”舒默说道。“我们所需要的只是足够的资金来应对他们可能发起的一切攻击，而在这方面我们做得还不错。”周三参议院仍在正常开会，但两党都已全面进入了竞选模式：民主党人拒绝了内布拉斯加州议员皮特·里基茨和俄亥俄州议员乔恩·赫斯特德提出的有关股票交易、选民身份验证以及数据中心的法案，他们不希望在中期选举前让共和党有任何胜算。斯科特表示，这些民主党的阻挠行为正是“我们能够保住多数席位的原因之一”。
Schumer, meanwhile, said the battle for the majority is a coin flip — the type of odds basically no one would give Democrats a year ago. He warned that his party could still lose.
然而现实是，参议院的争夺战正处于紧要关头：民主党人有希望获得所需的四个席位以占据多数地位；而共和党人在一些传统上属于他们的选区（如德克萨斯州和爱荷华州）的民调结果显示形势非常胶着，因此他们仍抱有坚持下去的希望。共和党在德克萨斯州和爱荷华州等州的巨额竞选开支凸显了他们所面临的挑战，但就连一向乐观的舒默也不敢保证自己能确保胜利。
“It’s 50-50. We’re right on the edge of winning. Two things could have us lose. One, they steal the election. … The second thing is money. They have obscene amounts of money,” Schumer said. “All we need is enough to be able to answer the sh*t they’re going to throw at us, and we’re doing well there.”The Senate was in session on Wednesday, but both parties are in full campaign mode: Democrats rejected stock trading and voter ID legislation and a data center bill from two GOP incumbents — Pete Ricketts of Nebraska and Jon Husted of Ohio — refusing to give Republicans any win weeks before the midterms. Scott said that moment “is one of the reasons why we’ll hold on to the majority,” citing the Democratic filibusters of those bills.
“我用一句话来总结这场选举：共和党在资金上的巨大优势，能否战胜民主党在候选人数量和政治氛围上的巨大优势呢？”舒默问道。“我认为我们会赢。”
But the reality is the battle for the Senate is on a knife’s edge, with Democrats standing a real chance of netting the four seats they need for the majority but Republicans seeing enough tight polls in red territory to hope they can hold on. The boatload of GOP spending in places like Texas and Iowa points to the challenges that Republicans are facing, but even the perpetually sunny Schumer isn’t guaranteeing victory yet.
双方都认为，这场选举的焦点在于共和党控制的俄亥俄州、爱荷华州、缅因州、北卡罗来纳州和阿拉斯加州的席位，以及民主党控制的新罕布什尔州和密歇根州的席位。民主党人还认为他们在堪萨斯州也有机会获胜——或许在其他一些传统上属于共和党的州也能取得胜利。
“Here’s how I sum up the election in one sentence: Can an enormous Republican advantage in dollars defeat an enormous Democratic advantage in candidates and in political climate?”Schumer asked. “I think we win.”Know More Both parties agree the battleground is focused on GOP held seats in Ohio, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Texas, and Alaska and Democratic seats in New Hampshire and Michigan. Democrats think they can compete in Kansas as well — and perhaps a handful of other typically red states.
斯科特勉强承认，共和党籍参议员罗杰·马歇尔对阵民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿的竞选局势实在过于胶着，胜负难以预料。
Scott begrudgingly agreed that Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall’s re-election campaign against Democrat Adam Hamilton is too close for comfort.
“这是一个竞争非常激烈的州，竞争激烈程度超出了我的预期。但事实是，我们将在堪萨斯州获胜，”斯科特说，“结果会比我希望的更接近。”舒默拒绝逐一分析各州的情况，只是表示特朗普对加拿大征收的关税正在伤害前密歇根州共和党参议员候选人迈克·罗杰斯。随着远在密西西比州和佛罗里达州的民主党人要求党内提供更多支持，他承认确实存在大量机会，但坚持认为他的党派必须保持高效。
“It’s a very competitive state, more competitive than I’d like to see it. But the fact of the matter is that we’re going to win in Kansas,” Scott said. “It’ll be closer than I want it to be.”Schumer declined to break down the states individually other than to say Trump’s tariffs on Canada are hurting former Michigan GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers. As Democrats in states as far afield as Mississippi and Florida ask the party for more support, he acknowledged there are plenty of opportunities but insisted his party needs to be efficient.
舒默表示：“我们的版图很大，有很多地方我们可以赢得胜利，我们将最大化我们在尽可能多的州获胜的能力。”
“We have a big map, and a lot of places where we can win, and we’re going to maximize our ability to win as many states as possible,” Schumer said.
伯吉斯认为，特朗普在竞选活动中的出场是参议院选举中剩下的最大变量之一。他在2018年的竞选活动帮助共和党人在众议院出现“蓝色浪潮”的情况下，仍在多个红州夺取了席位。
Burgess’s view Trump’s campaign trail presence is among the biggest variables left in the Senate races. His campaigning in 2018 helped Republicans pick up seats in a number of red states despite a blue wave in the House.
共和党人私下认为，俄亥俄州、阿拉斯加州、爱荷华州和德克萨斯州等地的反特朗普选民已经根深蒂固。尽管特朗普出席竞选活动会带来风险，但他们仍需要总统在这些州激发核心选民的投票率。
Republicans privately reason that anti-Trump voters in states like Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas are already baked in. They need the president to turn out the base in those states, despite the risks that a Trump campaign appearance brings.
随着广告预定接近尾声，国会也休会离开华盛顿直到11月，总统本人已经成为最大的选举变数。
And with ad reservations close to being set and Congress now vacating Washington until November, the president himself has become the biggest election wildcard.
据美联社报道，值得注意的是，特朗普本周将在俄克拉荷马州等红州开启他的竞选冲刺。
Notable Trump is beginning his campaign sprint this week in red states like Oklahoma Associated Press writes.