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沙特预计未来预算赤字将进一步扩大Saudi Arabia sees deeper budget deficits ahead

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沙特阿拉伯预计未来数年预算赤字将扩大,因为面对地区冲突,该国正增加支出以支持经济增长。油价上涨在很大程度上抵消了出口量下降,使收入高于战前估计,但支出增速将更快。

Saudi Arabia expects wider budget deficits for several years as it ramps up spending to support growth in the face of regional conflict. Higher oil prices have largely offset lower export volumes, lifting revenue above prewar estimates, but spending is set to rise faster.

明年的初步预算显示,沙特愿意继续借款,以加强国防并建设绕过霍尔木兹海峡的贸易路线。如果经济增长未能回升,政府债务有可能在本十年结束前突破占GDP 40%的上限。

Next year’s preliminary budget shows the kingdom is willing to keep borrowing to bolster its defenses and build trade routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. That raises the prospect of government debt breaching its 40%-of-GDP ceiling before the decade is out if growth doesn’t pick up.

财政部目前预计,政府今年预算赤字占GDP的4.9%,高于去年年底预测的3.3%。随着石油产量大幅下降,经济今年预计收缩3.6%,但如果石油运输恢复,2027年可能反弹近13%。政府表示,非油经济和就业增加推动 今年上半年经济增长。

The Finance Ministry now sees the government’s budget deficit at 4.9% of GDP this year, up from the 3.3% it predicted late last year. The economy is expected to shrink 3.6% this year as oil output falls sharply, but could rebound almost 13% in 2027 if oil flows are restored. The government says the non-oil economy and job creation drove growth in the first half of this year.

利雅得通过将原油经管道输往红海,并让油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡,尽管受到伊朗威胁,已将石油出口恢复至接近战前水平。不过,政府已采取措施削减非必要支出。——马修·马丁

Riyadh has brought oil exports close to prewar levels by piping crude to the Red Sea and sending tankers through Hormuz, despite Iranian threats. Still, the government has taken steps to cut back on non-essential spending. — Matthew Martin