日本投资者持有的法国债券远超基准权重建议的水平，这引发了新一轮抛售的威胁，可能加剧法国债务市场的动荡。
Japanese investors hold far more French bonds than benchmark weightings recommend, raising the threat of a new wave of selling that could deepen France’s debt rout.
据彭博社计算，截至7月，亚洲国家投资者持有约23万亿日元（1450亿美元）的法国债券。这占亚洲国家海外债务总持仓的6.6%，使其相对于彭博全球综合指数而言，在欧元区债券中的超配程度最高。
By Ruth Carson and Masaki Kondo Investors in the Asian nation owned an estimated ¥23 trillion ($145 billion) of French bonds as of July, according to calculations by Bloomberg. That’s 6.6% of the Asian nation’s total overseas debt holdings, making them the most overweight in the euro region relative to the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index.
法国正面临债券危机，由于未能实现赤字目标、政策僵局以及明年可能彻底改变国家方向的总统选举，市场对该国债务的情绪持续恶化。尽管日本投资者在多次政治和市场动荡期间一直坚定持有法国债券，但此次进一步抛售的风险可能更高。
France is facing a bond crisis as sentiment for the nation’s debt sours on missed deficit targets, policy gridlock and presidential elections next year that could radically alter the country’s direction. While Japanese investors have remained steadfast holders of French paper through multiple episodes of political and market turmoil, the risks of further selling may be higher this time around.
这是因为国内收益率的上升使得日本政府债券更具吸引力，从而增强了资金回流的动机，并可能削弱欧洲债务市场的重要支撑支柱。在已为法国债券进一步下跌做好准备的投资者中，包括五星资产管理公司（Fivestar Asset Management Co.）的岛村秀雄。
That’s because rising yields at home are making Japanese government debt more attractive, boosting incentives to repatriate money and potentially eroding a pillar of support pillar for European debt. Among investors already positioned for further drops in French bonds is Fivestar Asset Management Co.’s Hideo Shimomura.
岛雄表示，法国债务的抛售“才刚刚开始”。他指出：“如果欧洲中央银行袖手旁观，鉴于欧洲债务危机的先例，人们担心法国10年期国债收益率可能升至7%。”目前，该国10年期国债收益率已升至约5%，为2002年以来的最高水平。法国政府债券今年已下跌4.9%，成为全球表现第四差的债券。自去年年底以来，日本持有的法国债券规模已减少2.5%。
“This is just the beginning,” Shimomura said of France’s debt selloff. “If the European Central Bank just leaves things alone, there are concerns that, judging from the European debt crisis, France’s 10-year government bond yield could rise as high as 7%.”The nation’s 10-year bond yield has risen to about 5%, the highest since 2002. French government bonds have lost 4.9% this year, making them the fourth-worst performers globally. Japanese holdings of French bonds have decreased 2.5% since the end of last year.
住友三井DS资产管理公司的近江真二等投资者已开始关注这一动向。由于担忧法国的财政状况，其全球固定收益组合中的基金已清仓所有法国债务头寸。市场参与者表示，其他外国投资者可能会跟进。
Investors like Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management Co.’s Shinji Kunibe are taking note. Funds in his global fixed-income group have sold their entire holdings of French debt amid concerns about the nation’s fiscal situation. Other foreign investors may follow suit, market participants say.
伦敦Macro Hive公司的利率策略主管安东尼奥·德尔·法韦罗表示：“如果市场认为日本正在削减对法国的超配，因为法国不再被视为一个干净的基准配置，那么美国、亚洲以及一些欧洲基准投资者也可能会重新评估。”
“If Japan is seen as cutting an overweight because France is no longer a clean core allocation, US, Asian and some European benchmark investors may re-assess too,” said Antonio Del Favero, head of rates strategy at Macro Hive in London.
周一亚洲交易时段，由于担忧法国的债务风险，欧元兑美元汇率跌至2025年5月以来的最低水平。
The euro slid to its lowest since May 2025 against the dollar in Asia trading on Monday on concerns about France’s debt risks.
近期的抛售已将法国10年期债券收益率在货币对冲基础上推高至日本水平之上约40个基点。即便如此，这一利差扩大可能仍不足以阻止日本投资者的抛售，尤其是在存在长期抛售风险和对未来对冲成本不确定性的情况下。
The recent selloff has pushed France’s 10-year bond yield about 40 basis points above Japan’s on a currency-hedged basis. Even so, the pickup may be too small to halt Japanese selling amid the risk of a prolonged selloff and uncertainty over future hedging costs.
瑞穗银行的高级策略师中岛正幸表示：“结合对法国财政轨迹的担忧以及较高的外汇对冲成本，即便估值看起来更便宜，这也降低了日本投资者重建头寸的意愿。”
“Combined with concerns over France’s fiscal trajectory and elevated foreign-exchange hedging costs, this reduces the incentive for Japanese investors to rebuild positions even if valuations appear cheaper,” said Masayuki Nakajima, a senior strategist at Mizuho Bank.