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“足够大家分”:布鲁克菲尔德看好人工智能投资,即便要与对手分享‘Enough to go around’: Brookfield’s bullish on AI investing, even if it has to share it with rivals

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华尔街不是为财团而建的。世仇愈演愈烈,而超越竞争对手的压力使得没有理由与他们在投资上合作。但人工智能的庞大规模让竞争对手表现出色。

Wall Street isn’t built for consortiums. Blood feuds flourish, and the pressure to outperform rivals leaves little reason to team up with them on investments. But the sheer size of the AI buildout has competitors playing nice.

布鲁克菲尔德资产管理公司首席执行官康纳·特斯基(Connor Teskey)告诉Semafor:“我们所有人都有足够的资金。”可以将其归因于加拿大人的合群本能,但人工智能建设成本(据布鲁克菲尔德估计,未来十年将达到7万亿美元)从超大规模者本身转移到外部资金管理公司的竞赛正在形成奇怪的伙伴。

“There’s enough to go around for all of us,” Brookfield Asset Management CEO Connor Teskey tells Semafor. Chalk it up to Canadians’ go-along-to-get-along instincts, but the race to shift the cost of the AI buildout — $7 trillion over the next decade, by Brookfield’s estimate — from the hyperscalers themselves to external money managers is making strange bedfellows.

Brookfield与Nvidia成立了一家合资企业,将购买高达1000亿美元的人工智能基础设施资产。它还加入了这家芯片制造商安排的一个财团,与阿波罗、黑石和KKR(布鲁克菲尔德最激烈的竞争对手之一)一起再筹集5000亿美元。

Brookfield has a joint venture with Nvidia to buy up to $100 billion of AI infrastructure assets. It’s also in a consortium arranged by the chipmaker to corral another $500 billion alongside Apollo, Blackstone, and KKR — some of Brookfield’s fiercest rivals.

数据中心,以及其中的硬件和为其提供动力的发电厂,基本上与布鲁克菲尔德等公司建造、拥有和运营的桥梁、港口和其他平淡无奇但具有经济基础性的东西相同--尽管“规模更大,发生得更快,”他说。他说,数据中心金融家中仍然有很多输家。对于电力项目,他对天然气持谨慎态度,因为天然气部署缓慢,并且更热衷于燃料电池、陆上可再生能源、电池和核能。

Data centers, as well as the hardware inside them and the power plants feeding them, are basically the same as bridges, ports, and other unsexy but economically fundamental stuff that firms like Brookfield exist to build, own, and operate — albeit “on a much larger scale and happening much faster,” he said. There will still be plenty of losers among data-center financiers, he said. For power projects, he’s wary of gas, which is slow to deploy, and keener on fuel cells, onshore renewables, batteries, and nuclear.

他说:“如果说有一种说法与我们在实地看到的基本面最为脱节,那就是对人工智能基础设施以及支持人工智能基础设施的能源和供应链的需求在某种程度上是脆弱的。”蒂姆·麦克唐纳(Tim McDonnell)和利兹·霍夫曼(Liz Hoffman):电力仍然是数字基础设施最重要的瓶颈吗?

“If there’s a single narrative that is most starkly divorced from the fundamentals we’re seeing on the ground,” he said, “it’s the idea that the demand for AI infrastructure and the energy and the supply chain that supports it is in some way fragile.”Tim McDonnell and Liz Hoffman: Is power still the most important bottleneck for digital infrastructure?

康纳·特斯基:差距很大。这种不平衡和能源资本要求将持续到本十年末及以后。但在所有形式的发电需求都在增加的环境中,我们看到某些技术发展最快--燃料电池,因为它们部署最快;可再生能源,因为它们是最便宜的批量电力形式;电池和能源存储,因为它们为日益不稳定的电网提供稳定性;核能,因为它为您提供大规模基本负荷和能源安全。哪个能提供最好的回报?

Connor Teskey: By a very large margin. This imbalance and the capital requirements for energy are going to last through the end of this decade and beyond. But in an environment where all forms of generation are seeing increased demand, we see certain technologies growing the fastest — fuel cells because they’re the fastest to deploy; renewables because they’re the cheapest form of bulk electricity; batteries and energy storage because they provide stability to an increasingly volatile electric grid; and nuclear because it provides your large-scale baseload and energy security. Which offers the best returns?

沿着航线,成熟的可再生能源--陆上风能和太阳能、电池存储--绝对增长最快,拥有最多的市场参与者。所以也许你的回报结果更受范围限制。核能是一个巨大的机会。需求令人难以置信,资本需求巨大,而且拥有投资和帮助这些项目启动的专业知识的人要少得多。因此,退货要求会有所不同。

Down-the-fairway, mature renewables — onshore wind and solar, battery storage — are absolutely seeing the most growth and have the most market participants. So maybe your return outcomes are more range-bound. Nuclear is a huge opportunity. There is incredible demand, huge capital requirements, and there are far fewer people who have the expertise in order to invest and help pull those projects off of the ground.

您是Nvidia组建的联盟的一员。[Nvidia首席执行官] Jensen Huang一直在支持人工智能的大部分建设。我们现在是否正处于这样一个境地:以此为生的投资者正在介入并增强这种支持?

Therefore, the return requirements are going to be different. You’re part of the consortium that Nvidia put together. [Nvidia CEO] Jensen Huang has been propping up a huge chunk of the AI buildout. Are we now at a place where investors who do this for a living are stepping in and backfilling that support?

如果我可以以稍微不同的方式向您回放,人工智能基础设施正在沿着我们[以前]见过的非常传统的轨迹增长。最初,它是由希望建立和持有资产的独立资本提供商完成的。一旦资产类别增长,你就会开始看到银行银团融资。其他资本参与者也加入进来,无论是私人信贷还是保险。这正是人工智能基础设施内发生的事情。这次事件唯一的不同之处是它发生的规模更大,发生的速度也更快。

If I can play it back to you in a slightly different way, AI infrastructure is growing on a very traditional trajectory that we’ve seen [before]. Initially it’s done by independent capital providers who look to build and hold the assets. Once the asset class grows, you begin to see banks syndicate the financing. Other capital participants come in, whether it’s private credit or insurance. That is exactly what’s happened within AI infrastructure. The only thing that’s different about this one is it’s happening on a much larger scale and happening much faster.

我从未见过竞争对手如此频繁地坐在同一张桌子上。您如何看待您希望在哪些地方达成交易,而不是与竞争对手分享交易并分享回报?

I’ve never seen competitors at the same table this often. How do you think about places where you want a deal to yourself versus sharing it — and sharing the returns — with your competitors?

我们正在看到历史上最大的能源建设之一。我们看到全球贸易正在重新连接,越来越注重弹性和离家更近的关键商品的生产。这些是巨大的趋势,需要比传统上从政府甚至公共市场获得的资金多得多。那么为什么一张桌子上能有五六名领先球员呢?因为有足够的东西供我们所有人使用。但如果每个人都从事这一行业,那么赢家和输家会有什么区别呢?

We’re seeing one of the biggest energy buildouts in history. We’re seeing global trade rewired with an increasing focus on resiliency and production of critical goods closer to home. These are mega-trends that require far more capital than what has traditionally been available from both governments and even the public markets. So why can you get five or six of the leading players at one table? Because there’s enough to go around for all of us. But if everyone is in this trade, what’s going to differentiate winners and losers?

虽然用一把宽画笔很容易绘制所有东西,但谁表现好,谁的结果令人失望,将会存在差异。需要明确的是,我们并没有利用我们看到的每一个机会。我们正在做最微小的一部分。即使有非常严格的过滤器,我们也可以部署大量的资本。

While it’s easy to paint everything with a single wide brush, there is going to be a dispersion of who performs well and who has some disappointing results. To be absolutely clear, we’re not doing every opportunity we see. We are doing the tiniest fraction. And even with that very tight filter, we can deploy a tremendous amount of capital.

回到能源供应的问题,你在这里看到天然气的配件?你提到了低碳技术,但所有的科技公司都在争先恐后地涉足燃气轮机。

Returning to the energy supply question, where do you see gas fitting in here? You mentioned lower-carbon technologies, but all the tech companies are scrambling to get their hands on gas turbines.

天然气将是至关重要的。但是今天尝试订购一台新的燃气轮机,它不会在十年内出现,这就是为什么今天我们看到太阳能和电池等产品的增长最大。

Gas is going to be critically important. But try and order a new gas turbine today, it’s not coming in a decade that has a ‘two’ on the front of it. That’s why today we see the greatest amount of growth in things like solar and batteries.

当你看到公众对数据中心越来越多的抵制时,这是否会对未来能源需求的增长速度构成风险?是否存在过度建设的风险?

When you look at some of the mounting public pushback on data centers, is that a risk to the pace of energy demand growth ahead? Is there a risk of overbuilding?

如果说有一个叙事与我们在地面上观察到的基本面最脱节,那就是认为人工智能基础设施的需求,以及支撑它的能源和供应链,在某种程度上是脆弱的。或者认为模型效率的微小调整就会打破我们当前供需失衡的局面。即便需求有所波动,当前的供应水平也远远无法满足需求,失衡状态仍将存在。

If there’s a single narrative that is most starkly divorced from the fundamentals we’re seeing on the ground, it’s the idea that the demand for AI infrastructure and the energy and the supply chain that supports it is in some way fragile. Or that there’s a small tweak in model efficiency that’s going to disrupt this supply-demand imbalance we have today. Even if demand , there would still be an imbalance that the current levels of supply are nowhere near servicing.

那么,这种情况会永远持续下去吗?不会。但毫无疑问,在当前阶段,作为这条供应链中增量产能的提供者,其吸引力非常大。同样重要的是要认识到,我们建设的项目是与全球最优质的交易对手方签订的20至25年期合同。无论两三年后需求环境如何变化,我们都能在初始合同期内收回资本投入。

So will it be this way forever? No. But certainly today being a provider of incremental capacity into this supply chain is very attractive. It’s also important to recognize that what we’re building is under 20- or 25-year contracts with the greatest counterparties in the world. We’re going to get a return on our capital in that initial contract, regardless of what the demand environment looks like two or three decades from now.

从历史上看,基础设施项目通常有公共部门作为承购方,例如港口管理局或市政水务部门。而在人工智能项目中,私营公司则处于另一端。人工智能从根本上来说是否属于基础设施,还是我们仅仅这样称呼它?

Infrastructure projects historically have a public offtaker, like the Port Authority or municipal water departments. Private companies are on the other side of the AI projects. Is AI fundamentally infrastructure, or are we just calling it that?

过去,经济依靠公路、铁路和管道等实体设施运转。但随着我们周围的世界日益数字化,数据将像其他所有商品一样,需要被越来越多地传输、处理和存储。因此,我们将此视为为数字时代建设管道和收费公路。

In the past, economies ran on toll roads and railroads and pipelines that were physical. But as the world around us increasingly digitizes, data is going to need to be increasingly transported, processed, and stored just like every other commodity. So we view this as building the pipelines and the toll roads for a digital era.