和 Suttinee Yuvejwattana 9月份，泰国通货膨胀连续第二个月加速，因严重洪灾加剧了食品价格上涨的风险，通胀水平正逐步逼近央行的上限。
Thailand’s inflation accelerated for a second straight month in September, moving closer to the central bank’s upper limit as severe flooding adds to the risk of higher food prices.
泰国商务部周二公布的数据显示，9月份消费者价格指数同比上涨2.82%，高于8月份的2.53%，显示通胀加速。不过，这一数据仍低于彭博社对经济学家调查得出的3.1%的中位数预期。
The consumer price index rose 2.82% in September from a year earlier, accelerating from 2.53% in August, Commerce Ministry data showed Tuesday. Still, the reading was below the 3.1% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
尽管通胀有所上升，但仍处于泰国银行设定的1%-3%目标区间内。然而，在经历了较长时间的温和物价压力后，这一数据正逐渐接近该区间的上限。
Despite the pickup, inflation remains within the Bank of Thailand’s 1%-3% target range but brings it closer to the upper bound after a prolonged period of subdued price pressures.
商务部贸易政策与战略办公室总干事Nantapong Chiralerspong表示，油价和加工食品价格的上涨是此次通胀加速的主要原因，这反映了原材料成本的上升以及中东冲突的影响。此外，天气变化导致供应受限，鸡蛋、鸡肉、蔬菜和水果的价格也出现上涨。
Higher oil and processed-food prices drove much of the acceleration, reflecting elevated raw-material costs and the conflict in the Middle East, according to Nantapong Chiralerspong, director-general of the Commerce Ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office. Prices of eggs, chicken, vegetables and fruit also increased as changing weather conditions affected supplies.
食品和能源在泰国消费者价格指数篮子中占比最大，因此家庭对油价波动和农业供应中断尤为敏感。
Food and energy together make up the largest share of Thailand’s consumer-price basket, making households particularly sensitive to swings in oil prices and disruptions to agricultural supplies.
这些压力可能不会很快消退。商务部预计，由于高油价将传导至运输和加工食品成本，泰国第四季度的通胀将继续加速。近期的洪灾预计将通过扰乱新鲜食品供应，使通胀水平再上升约0.1个百分点。
Those pressures are unlikely to fade quickly. The ministry expects inflation to continue accelerating in the fourth quarter as elevated oil prices feed into transportation and processed-food costs. Recent flooding is expected to add about 0.1 percentage point to inflation by disrupting fresh-food supplies.
目前，商务部预计全年通胀率为1.8%-2.2%，低于此前的1.5%-2.5%预测区间。
The ministry now expects full-year inflation of 1.8%-2.2%, compared with its previous range of 1.5%-2.5%.
泰国正面临该地区其他能源进口国类似的物价压力。受中东冲突推高全球油价的影响，菲律宾9月份的通胀率时隔五个月首次加速，并仍高于其央行设定的3%目标。
Thailand is facing similar price pressures to other energy-importing economies in the region. Inflation in the Philippines accelerated for the first time in five months in September and remained above its central bank’s 3% target after the Middle East conflict drove up global oil prices.
对于泰国而言，洪水正成为一项新的风险。曼谷及数十个省份遭遇严重洪灾，导致交通和商业活动中断；而持续的强降雨可能进一步损害农作物，并加剧食品供应困难，从而对物价形成上行压力。
For Thailand, floods are emerging as an additional risk. Severe inundation in Bangkok and dozens of provinces has disrupted transportation and businesses, while further heavy rain could damage crops and complicate food distribution, putting upward pressure on prices.
目前来看，这一加速趋势不太可能对泰国央行的政策立场产生实质性影响。官员们已表明，他们准备暂时忽略物价的短期飙升，同时继续支持今年预计仅增长2%至2.5%的经济。
The acceleration is unlikely to materially change the Bank of Thailand’s policy stance for now. Officials have signaled they are prepared to look through temporary price spikes while maintaining support for an economy expected to grow only about 2%-2.5% this year.
8月份，该央行在连续第三次会议上维持基准利率在1%不变。下一次决策会议定于10月28日召开。
The central bank kept its benchmark rate at 1% for a third consecutive meeting in August. Its next decision is scheduled for Oct. 28.
从月度数据来看，9月份消费者价格指数上涨0.25%，低于8月份的0.56%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心通胀率则同比上涨1.5%，高于此前的1.44%。
On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.25% in September, compared with 0.56% in August. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 1.5% from a year earlier, up from 1.44%.