随着俄罗斯在冬季供暖季来临前再次加大对乌克兰电力网络的攻击力度，基辅此次迎来了一位新的盟友：厄尔尼诺现象。
As Russia again ramps up its attacks on Ukraine’s electricity grid ahead of the winter heating season, this time Kyiv has a new ally in its corner: El Niño.
上周，自去年冬季以来，克里姆林宫发动了首次大规模电网袭击，导致乌克兰全国约8000户家庭临时停电。这是对未来的令人沮丧的预演：就在七个月前，乌克兰人刚刚熬过了自全面入侵以来最严酷的冬天。当时，能源工厂和变电站遭到持续轰炸，导致许多人在数周内既无供暖，每日仅有数小时供电。本周，俄罗斯国防部明确表示，鉴于过去两个月乌克兰远程无人机对俄罗斯炼油厂发动了创纪录的打击，类似情况还将继续。
Last week, 8,000 households around Ukraine temporarily went dark after the Kremlin’s first large-scale grid attack since last winter. It was a disheartening preview of things to come: Just seven months ago, Ukrainians emerged from their harshest winter since the full-scale invasion, when relentless bombardment of energy plants and substations left many with no heat and few hours of daily power access for weeks at a time. This week, Russia’s Defense Ministry made clear that more of the same is coming following a record campaign of strikes by Ukraine’s long-distance drones against Russian oil refineries in the past two months, which according to Kyiv have now taken out more than half of Russia’s refining capacity.
据基辅方面称，这些打击已摧毁了俄罗斯超过一半的炼油产能。乌克兰有充分理由担忧：与去年同期相比，莫斯科在空战中的进攻态势有所改善，不仅部署了喷气式无人机，而且乌克兰在导弹防御物资方面存在巨大缺口。
Ukraine has good reason to be worried: Moscow’s offensive position in the air war has improved since this time last year, with the deployment of jet-powered drones and a gaping deficit in Ukraine’s missile defense supplies.
但多项因素正对乌克兰有利。西方用于重建能源部门的援助仍在持续流入；据欧洲官员称，从现在到二月期间，预计将有价值2.5亿美元的能源设备交付。乌克兰正带着天然气盈余进入冬季，而一年前它并无此储备；此外，其关键能源资产中，有更高比例被安置在防护混凝土屏障之后，这些屏障在抵御除导弹直接命中外的所有打击方面，出人意料地有效。
But a number of factors are working in Ukraine’s favor. Western aid for rebuilding the energy sector continues to flow in; some $250 million in energy hardware is expected for delivery between now and February, according to European officials. Ukraine is entering the winter with a natural gas surplus it didn’t have a year ago, and with a much higher share of its critical energy assets ensconced behind protective concrete barriers that are surprisingly effective at blunting damage from all but direct missile hits.
更多公用事业规模的可再生能源已并网发电，乌克兰社会中的民众和企业也从接连不断的严冬中吸取了教训，学会了如何利用电池、发电机、毛毯和蜡烛艰难度日。
More utility-scale renewables are online, and people and businesses across Ukrainian society have learned from successive bleak winters how to muddle through with batteries, generators, blankets, and candles.
最后，或许也是决定性的因素，就是天气。乌克兰去年的冬天是几十年来最冷的。正是这一因素，让停电从一种不便变成了致命的威胁。然而今年，一个异常强烈、甚至可能打破纪录的厄尔尼诺天气模式——由太平洋温暖的海面温度驱动——预计将给欧洲带来温暖而多雨的冬季。这对正面临天然气短缺的欧盟来说是个好消息。
Finally, and perhaps decisively, there’s the weather. Last year’s winter in Ukraine was the coldest in decades. That’s the factor that turns a blackout from an inconvenience to a deadly threat. This year, however, an exceptionally strong and possibly even record-breaking El Niño weather pattern — driven by warm ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific — is expected to make for a warm and wet winter in Europe. That’s good news for the EU, which is staring down a gas shortage.
但对俄罗斯而言，这可能存在问题：俄罗斯同样可能迎来暖冬，但却要承受高于平均水平的食品和燃料进口价格。对乌克兰来说，这则是个优势。不过，我仍然在寻找一间有可用壁炉的公寓。
It could be problematic for Russia, which will also likely be warm but will be exposed to above-average food and fuel import prices. For Ukraine, it’s an asset. But I’m still looking for an apartment with a working fireplace.