
高昂的能源价格继续推高通胀,并激起世界各地选民的愤怒。但是,随着更多原油流经霍尔木兹海峡以及各国政府释放更多紧急燃料储备,能源危机将持续多久?
High energy prices continue to drive inflation and stoke anger among voters around the world. But with more crude oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, and governments releasing more emergency fuel stockpiles, how long will the energy crunch last?
标普全球(S&P Global)石油市场、能源与移动出行副总裁兼研究主管吉姆·伯克哈德(Jim Burkhard)表示,高油价将长期存在。“在霍尔木兹海峡的物流恢复正常之前,这就是新常态。中东作为供应来源是无可替代的。”
Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Head of Research for Oil Markets, Energy and Mobility at S&P Global, says elevated oil prices are here to stay. "It's the new normal until flows are normalised out of the Strait of Hormuz. There's no replacing the Middle East as a source of supply."
他表示,受损的基础设施和高昂的航运成本也是中长期挑战的一部分。“还有一个炼油问题,这不仅限于中东(……)这些[油轮]的日租金已经从6万美元涨到了100多万美元。所以运输成本上升了——这真是惊人。”
He says damaged infrastructure and high shipping costs are also part of the medium to long-term challenge. "You also have a refining issue, which is not confined to the Middle East (...) you've gone from $60,000 as the daily rate for one of these [oil] tankers to over a million. So the transportation costs have gone up – it's really stunning."
伯克哈德说,在不到五年的时间里经历了两次能源危机之后,各国政府正在寻找不同的方法来确保其能源安全。“一个国家如何在保障能源供应方面变得更具韧性?世界各地的答案不会是相同的。一些国家可能会说,看,我们希望在我们国家内部或附近生产更多的石油和天然气。另一些国家则表示,我们希望摆脱对石油和天然气的依赖。因此,这是一个复杂的反应,而不是千篇一律的反应,这取决于特定国家或地区所拥有的资源和选择。”
Burkhard says that after two energy crises in less than five years, governments are looking at different ways to ensure their energy security. "How does a country become more resilient in terms of safeguarding its energy supply? And the answer is not going to be the same around the world. Some countries may say, look, we want to produce more oil and gas in or nearby our country. Others are saying we want to move away from oil and gas. So it's a mixed response, it's not a uniform response, and it depends on the resources and options that a particular country or region has at its disposal."