波哥大，10月8日——据现任和前任官员及经济学家透露，哥伦比亚在与国际货币基金组织（IMF）潜在协议下履行任何承诺时将面临重大障碍。该国正因财政危机向IMF寻求数十亿美元的援助。
BOGOTA, Oct 8 - Colombia would face major hurdles in meeting any commitments it makes under a prospective agreement with the International Monetary Fund, from which it is seeking billions of dollars amid a fiscal crisis, according to current and former officials and economists.
本周，哥伦比亚财政部团队应新上任的总统阿贝拉多·德拉·埃斯普里埃拉的指示前往华盛顿，与这家多边贷款机构会面，旨在寻找摆脱债务飙升、税收下降危机的出路。
A team from the country's finance ministry traveled to Washington this week to meet with the multilateral lender, at the direction of recently inaugurated President Abelardo De La Espriella, who is seeking a way out of a crisis marked by soaring debt and lower tax revenue.
据路透社采访的10位经济学家及现任和前任官员称，哥伦比亚可能寻求80亿美元至200亿美元的援助。
According to 10 economists and current and former officials consulted by Reuters, Colombia could seek between $8 billion and $20 billion in assistance.
大多数受访者认为，最适合哥伦比亚情况的IMF工具是预防性和流动性额度（Precautionary and Liquidity Line，PLL），该设施针对拥有稳健经济基本面和制度框架但面临脆弱性的国家。
Most of them agreed the IMF instrument best suited to Colombia's circumstances would be the Precautionary and Liquidity Line, a facility designed for countries with sound economic fundamentals and institutional frameworks but that face vulnerabilities.
哥伦比亚政府预计今年财政赤字将占国内生产总值（GDP）的7.2%，明年将创纪录地达到9.4%。该国拥有约27.8亿美元的特别提款权（SDR），可在SDR协议期限内动用约166亿美元。
Colombia's government has projected a fiscal deficit of 7.2% of its gross domestic product this year and a record 9.4% of GDP next year. It has Special Drawing Rights equivalent to roughly $2.78 billion, allowing it to access about $16.6 billion over the lifetime of the SDR agreement.
虽然安第斯国家在多数PLL标准上符合要求，包括健全的金融体系、强有力的货币政策框架和央行独立性，但仍需展示其债务财政可持续性的进展才能获得资格。预算屡次超支已削弱了外界对其政策框架的信心。
While the Andean nation meets most of the criteria for a PLL, including a sound financial system, strong monetary policy framework and central bank independence, it would need to demonstrate progress on the fiscal sustainability of its debt to qualify. Repeated budget overruns have eroded confidence in its policy framework.
在2025年审查中，IMF曾指出，在哥伦比亚财政前景进一步恶化之前，该国需在三年内将预算削减至少相当于GDP的3.2%。
In its 2025 review, before Colombia's fiscal outlook deteriorated further, the IMF said the country needed to cut its budget by at least the equivalent of 3.2% of GDP over three years.
PLL相较于常规的备用安排（Stand‑By Arrangement）在政治成本上可能更低，因为它针对的是经济政策已基本稳健的国家，尽管仍可能包含财政目标和改革要求。
A PLL could be less politically costly than a Stand-By Arrangement because it is intended for countries whose economic policies are already broadly sound, although it can still include fiscal targets and reform requirements.
前财政部长毛里西奥·卡尔德纳斯表示，政府应向国际货币基金组织（IMF）寻求200亿美元的贷款，平均期限为四年。
The government should seek $20 billion in loans from the IMF with an average maturity of four years, former Finance Minister Mauricio Cardenas said.
曾参与过往IMF信贷额度续签工作的卡尔德纳斯表示：“我认为这是一个与我们经济规模相称的数额。另一个好处是，它将使我们能够提前偿还昂贵的债务，并用这些较便宜的债务取而代之。”其他几位专家表示，与IMF达成协议将提振市场信心，降低哥伦比亚的风险溢价，并有助于从世界银行、美洲开发银行和其他多边贷款机构等机构解锁额外的资金。
"I think it is an amount that is proportionate to the size of our economy," said Cardenas, who took part in previous IMF credit-line renewals. "An additional benefit is that it would allow us to prepay expensive debt and replace it with this cheaper debt." Several others said an IMF agreement would boost market confidence, lower Colombia's risk premiums and help unlock additional funding from institutions such as the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and other multilateral lenders.
旨在防止政府财政恶化的所谓“财政规则”合规监督自治委员会负责人胡安·卡洛斯·拉米雷斯表示：“与IMF达成的协议增强了对该债务的信心，债权人可能会降低哥伦比亚现有贷款的成本。它不会立即产生这种积极影响，而是随着时间的推移，在承诺得到兑现的过程中逐渐产生。”
"An agreement with the IMF expands confidence in that debt, and creditors could reduce the cost of Colombia's existing loans. It would generate that positive effect, not immediately, but rather as commitments are met over time," said Juan Carlos Ramirez, head of the autonomous committee that oversees compliance with the so-called "fiscal rule" meant to prevent a deterioration in government finances.
他补充说：“但只要赤字年复一年地持续下去，它只能在未来几年提供一些缓解。它并不是问题的解决方案。”
"But as long as the deficit persists year after year, it can only provide some relief over the coming years. It is not the solution to the problem," he added.
国会分裂 多位受访者表示，哥伦比亚面临着设定可实现的财政目标的挑战。
DIVIDED CONGRESS Colombia faces the challenge of setting achievable fiscal targets, several of those consulted said.
BTG Pactual安第斯地区首席经济学家穆尼尔·贾利尔表示：“主要的风险是无法达到IMF的要求。全世界都在关注哥伦比亚，如果我们未能达到IMF设定的任何目标，不仅可能被扣发贷款，而且所有人都会看到这个国家无力兑现承诺。”
"The main risk is failing to comply with IMF requirements. The world will be watching Colombia, and if we fail to meet any of the targets the IMF sets, not only could a disbursement be withheld, but everyone would see that the country was unable to deliver," said Munir Jalil, chief economist for the Andean region at BTG Pactual.
分析人士表示，一项关键承诺将是所谓的“救援法”，这是一项包含相当于GDP 2.2%（约合140亿美元）的支出的削减法案，德拉埃斯普里利亚政府计划在10月中旬向议员们提交该法案。这位总统正面临一个严重分裂的国会。"哥伦比亚从未在单一年份实施过如此规模的财政调整改革,"哥伦比亚前副财政部长、XP Investments拉美宏观策略前主管安德烈斯·帕多(Andres Pardo)表示。"
Analysts said a key commitment would be the so-called "Rescue Law," a bill containing spending cuts equivalent to 2.2% of GDP, or about $14 billion, that De La Espriella's government plans to propose to lawmakers in mid-October. The president faces a deeply divided Congress. "There has never been a fiscal adjustment reform of that size in a single year (in Colombia)," said Andres Pardo, a former deputy finance minister and former head of macro strategy for Latin America at XP Investments.
这并非意味着无法实现,但坦白说似乎很难。"他补充道:"虽然政府拥有多数席位,但这些多数地位相当脆弱,且依赖联盟政党。"
"That doesn't mean it can't be done, but frankly it seems difficult." "While the government has majorities, they are quite fragile and depend on coalition parties," he added.
哥伦比亚从国际货币基金组织(IMF)灵活信贷安排中提取了54亿美元,以帮助应对COVID-19大流行,在去年全额偿还后结束了该信贷额度。
Colombia drew $5.4 billion from an IMF Flexible Credit Line to help address the COVID-19 pandemic, closing out the credit last year after it was fully repaid.