由曼努埃拉·托比亚斯、约尔赫利纳·多·罗萨里奥和奥斯卡·梅迪纳报道，哥伦比亚的借贷成本可能需要进一步上升并保持在较高水平更长时间，以遏制日益上升的通胀风险，一位高级政策制定者表示。
By Manuela Tobias, Jorgelina do Rosario and Oscar Medina Colombian borrowing costs may need to rise further and remain elevated for longer to curb mounting inflation risks, according to a senior policymaker.
厄尔尼诺天气现象、伊朗战争以及巨额财政赤字可能助长价格压力，央行联合主任毛里西奥·维拉米萨尔表示。
The El Niño weather phenomenon, the Iran war and a gaping fiscal deficit threaten to fuel price pressures, central bank co-director Mauricio Villamizar said.
“我们认为利率将在较长时间内保持高位，”维拉米萨尔周二在曼谷国际货币基金组织年会期间的一次采访中表示。“但如果有必要，进一步上调也在考虑之中。”哥伦比亚央行上个月出人意料地将利率提升至自2024年以来的最高水平，旨在恢复多年未达成通胀目标后的信誉。厄尔尼诺可能对食品和能源成本造成的压力大于市场目前的预期，使该国陷入“未知领域”，维拉米萨尔表示。他还表示，8月份毁灭性地震的余波也可能助长价格压力。
“We have in mind that rates will stay high for longer,” Villamizar said Tuesday in an interview on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Bangkok. “But additional increases are also on the table if needed.”Colombia unexpectedly raised interest rates last month to the highest since 2024 as the central bank seeks to restore credibility after years of missing its inflation target. El Niño could put greater pressure on food and energy costs than markets currently anticipate, putting the nation in “uncharted territory,” Villamizar said. The fallout from August’s devastating earthquake may also stoke price pressures, he said.
央行预测显示，通胀预计今年年底将达到7.2%，2027年放缓至4.7%，并在2028年底前达到3%的目标，维拉米萨尔表示。
Central bank forecasters expect inflation to end the year at 7.2%, slow to 4.7% in 2027 and reach the 3% target by the end of 2028, Villamizar said.
食品成本是一个关键风险。央行最近将今年食品通胀的预测从9%上调至10.5%，而严重的厄尔尼诺可能将其推高至12%，维拉米萨尔表示。
Food costs are a key risk. The central bank recently raised its forecast for food inflation this year to 10.5% from 9%, while a severe El Niño could push it to 12%, Villamizar said.
总统阿贝拉尔多·德拉·埃斯普里耶拉的政府于8月上台，正面临财政赤字可能超过国内生产总值9%的挑战。政府正在准备一揽子调整方案，包括削减开支以及与多边贷款机构就融资进行谈判。
President Abelardo de la Espriella’s government, which took office in August, is grappling with a budget deficit that could exceed 9% of gross domestic product next year. The administration is preparing an adjustment package including spending cuts and talks with multilateral lenders over financing.
该国正在就一个新的国际货币基金组织项目进行谈判，央行预计该项目可能在10月底前公布。维拉米萨尔表示，他不知情具体细节，但认为达成协议将向市场传递积极信号。
The nation is in talks for a new IMF program, which the central bank expects could be announced by the end of October. Villamizar said he wasn’t aware of the details but that an agreement would send a positive signal to markets.
然而，要为降低利率铺平道路，央行需要看到政府和国会落实财政削减。
For it to pave the way for lower interest rates, however, the central bank would need to see the government and congress follow through on fiscal cuts.
“如果这些削减得以实现，我认为这将加速我们决定降息的时刻，”维拉米萨尔说。“但这并不意味着他们一旦制定计划我们就会降息，更不会在短期内降息。”
“If those cuts were fulfilled, I think that would accelerate the moment when we decide to lower,” Villamizar said. “But that doesn’t mean that we would cut rates when they get a program, and much less in the immediate term.”