国际货币基金组织（IMF）周五敦促拉丁美洲各国政府利用当前仍较为有利的全球环境来削减公共债务并提高生产率，同时警告称许多国家的财政调整工作已经停滞不前。
The International Monetary Fund urged Latin American governments on Friday to take advantage of still-favorable global conditions to cut public debt and raise productivity, while it warned that a fiscal adjustment has stalled in many countries.
该组织的《区域经济展望》报告预测，包括美国和加拿大在内的西半球的经济增长率今年将为2.2%，2027年为2.3%，较2025年的2.4%略有放缓。对于拉丁美洲和加勒比地区，预计2026年的经济增长率为2.3%，2027年为2.5%，分别比7月份的预测下降了0.1个百分点和0.2个百分点。
The fund's Regional Economic Outlook projects Western Hemisphere growth, including the United States and Canada, of 2.2% this year and 2.3% in 2027, a slight deceleration from 2.4% in 2025. For Latin America and the Caribbean, the estimate was for 2.3% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, down 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points from July forecasts.
国际货币基金组织西半球部门负责人奈杰尔·查尔克（Nigel Chalk）在事先准备好的讲话中表示，整个拉丁美洲地区的“公共债务持续上升”，而目前的有利融资条件“可能无法长期维持”。本周早些时候，该组织将2026年的全球经济增长预测从7月份的3%上调至3.1%，2027年的预测仍维持在3.4%。新兴和发展中经济体的经济增长率预计分别为3.7%和4.4%，这进一步拉大了与拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的差距。
Nigel Chalk, head of the IMF's Western Hemisphere Department, said in prepared remarks that for the region as a whole "public debt continues to rise," while favorable financing conditions "may not last." Earlier this week, the fund raised its 2026 world economic growth forecast by 0.1 point from July to 3.1% and left 2027 at 3.4%. Growth in emerging and developing economies, cut 0.1 point in both years, is projected at 3.7% and 4.4%, leaving Latin America and the Caribbean behind.
报告指出，强劲的美国需求、高商品价格、有利的金融环境以及蓬勃发展的旅游业和汇款收入正在支撑着该地区的经济活动。然而，这些因素“无法解决该地区面临的根本性问题，即高公共债务和低生产率增长”。
Strong US demand, high commodity prices, supportive financial conditions and robust tourism and remittances are sustaining economic activity. But they "are not able to resolve the region's fundamental challenges of high public debt and weak productivity growth," the report said.
工作人员估计，较有利的贸易条件以及更为宽松的金融环境将使巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、墨西哥和秘鲁等国家的2026年经济增长率比去年提高约0.6个百分点。不过，关税和地缘政治的不确定性在一定程度上抵消了这种增长势头。
Staff estimate that better terms of trade and looser financial conditions add about 0.6 percentage point to 2026 growth in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru relative to last year. Uncertainty over tariffs and geopolitics partly offsets that expansion.
关于阿根廷，查尔克表示，该国今年的经济增长预期大幅下调；不过他认为阿根廷的经济增长将在明年有所回升。
On Argentina, which saw a large cut to its expected economic expansion, Chalk said data this year have been weaker than the fund expected, but he sees growth rebounding next year.
报告指出，拉丁美洲各国在2025年实施了财政整顿措施，但调整幅度低于预期；今年，许多国家的财政整顿进程陷入了停滞。巴西、加拿大以及许多加勒比海地区的经济体都在努力应对不断上涨的能源价格，这与它们的财政整顿计划背道而驰。
Countries in Latin America implemented consolidation measures in 2025, the report said, but the adjustment was smaller than envisaged and has stalled "for many" this year. Brazil, Canada and many Caribbean economies are cushioning higher energy prices, counter to fiscal consolidation.
国际货币基金组织（IMF）预计，在未来几年内，很少有拉丁美洲国家能够接近发达国家的生活水平。Chalk将“进一步落后于发达国家”的风险称为“一个紧迫的问题”。报告还提到，由于中东冲突引发的能源和食品价格飙升，大多数国家的通货膨胀率应在2027年底前恢复到目标水平。根据IMF的分析，经济增长面临下行风险，而通货膨胀则存在上升的可能性。
The Fund expects few Latin American countries to move closer to advanced-economy living standards in the next several years. Chalk called the risk of falling further behind "an urgent problem." Amid the energy and food price surge triggered by the Middle East conflict, inflation should return to target in most countries by the end of 2027, the report said. Risks are tilted to the downside for economic growth and to the upside for inflation, according to the IMF.