国际货币基金组织表示，尽管非洲的经济增长表现好于预期，但自4月以来该地区的通胀前景已恶化，警告称该地区来之不易的经济增长仍然脆弱。
Africa's inflation outlook has worsened since April even as growth held up better than expected, the IMF said, warning that the region's hard-won economic gains remain fragile.
该基金将该地区2026年的增长预期从4月的4.3%上调至4.5%，理由是全球供应调整和国内改革。但这种韧性正在掩盖通胀形势的恶化，因为中位数通胀率预计将从2025年的3.4%升至2026年的4.3%，再升至2027年的5.0%——这与4月的预测形成逆转，当时IMF预计价格压力将在2026年达到5.0%的峰值后开始缓解。
The fund upgraded its 2026 growth forecast for the region to 4.5% from 4.3% back in April, citing global supply adjustments and domestic reforms. But that resilience is masking a worsening inflation picture, as median inflation is now projected to climb from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027 — a reversal from April, when the IMF expected price pressures to peak at 5.0% in 2026 before easing.
“货币政策必须依赖数据，但重点应放在确保你将通胀率带回目标水平上，”IMF非洲事务部门主任泽因·泽伊丹对路透社表示。
"Monetary policy has to remain data dependent, but the focus should be on making sure that you bring inflation to your target," Zeine Zeidane, director of the IMF's African Department, told Reuters.
该基金本周更新的地区展望称，对大多数国家而言，“可能需要”货币紧缩，这一警告比4月时提到的“艰难平衡”更为坚决。目前，该地区利息支出占政府收入的约12%，而美国10年期国债收益率已从2月下旬的4%升至9月底的5.2%，即使主权利差有所收窄，借贷成本仍在上升。“尽管利差被压缩，借贷成本仍可能继续上升，”泽伊丹表示。
The fund's regional view, updated this week, said monetary tightening "may be needed" for most countries, a firmer warning than April's reference to a "difficult balancing act." Interest payments now consume about 12% of government revenue across the region, and the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed from 4% in late February to 5.2% by end-September, pushing up borrowing costs even as sovereign spreads have narrowed. "Despite compressing the spread, the cost of borrowing could continue to rise," Zeidane said.
该基金此前警告称，债务重组的延迟可能减缓各国获得IMF融资的速度，加深债务困境，并使经济调整变得更加困难。埃塞俄比亚、加纳和赞比亚在债务重组方面已取得进展，但这些进程耗时多年。
Debt-restructuring delays can slow countries’ access to IMF financing, deepen debt distress and make economic adjustment harder, the Fund has warned. Ethiopia, Ghana and Zambia have made progress restructuring their debts, but the processes took years.
泽伊丹表示，新的重组操作手册和谅解备忘录模板应能加快未来案件的处理速度，同时IMF也在提供其“斡旋服务”，以改善债权人和债务人之间的信息共享。
Zeidane said a new restructuring playbook and template memoranda of understanding should speed future cases, while the IMF is also offering its “good offices” to improve information-sharing between creditors and debtors.
商品出口国和进口国之间的差距正在扩大，进一步加剧了压力。石油出口国的经常账户盈余正从国内生产总值的1.6%跃升至4.4%，而非资源密集型经济体的赤字则从3.4%扩大至5.8% — — 这一分化程度甚至超过了4月份的预警。双边援助预计将在2026年进一步下降12%，此前在2025年已下降约四分之一。
A widening gap between commodity exporters and importers adds to the strain. Oil exporters' current-account surpluses are jumping to 4.4% of GDP from 1.6%, while non-resource-intensive economies see deficits widen to 5.8% from 3.4% — a sharper divergence than flagged in April. Bilateral aid is projected to fall a further 12% in 2026 after dropping roughly a quarter in 2025.
厄尔尼诺现象并非基金4月份展望中的主要因素，如今却成为一个关键风险。这一可能扰乱农业并加剧粮食安全风险的气候冲击事件，根据国际货币基金组织的模拟显示，可能在2027年使增长下降0.5个百分点，通胀上升2.6个百分点。泽伊丹表示：“情况可能比我们在展望中预见的更糟。”他补充说，基金“已做好准备”，将在其18个活跃国家项目中提供紧急融资。
El Niño, not a major feature of the Fund's April outlook, now looms as a key risk. The climate shock event, which could disrupt agriculture and amplify food-security risks, could cut growth by half a percentage point and lift inflation by 2.6 percentage points in 2027, IMF simulations showed. "Things could get worse than what we have in the outlook," Zeidane said, adding the fund "stands ready" with emergency financing across its 18 active country programs.