国际货币基金组织将2026年撒哈拉以南非洲地区的经济增长预期上调至4.5%，巩固了其作为全球增长最快地区之一的地位。
The IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 4.5%, cementing its position as one of the world’s fastest growing regions.
该组织指出，这一新预期值虽略高于7月份预测的4.3%，但“实际上反映出各国经济表现存在显著差异”。其中，石油进口国受伊朗战争引发的供应链动荡影响最为严重，能源与食品价格大幅上涨对其经济造成沉重打击。
The IMF said the new projection, marginally higher than July’s 4.3%, “masks substantial divergence,” with oil-importing economies the most exposed to higher energy and food prices driven by Iran-war-related supply chain shocks.
据预测，作为非洲最大经济体的南非，今年及明年的经济增速将远低于地区平均水平——石油价格上涨进一步削弱了该国本就脆弱的经济前景。另一方面，国际货币基金组织将非洲最大原油生产国尼日利亚的经济增长预期上调至4.2%，理由是“贸易条件改善带来了有利影响”。从全球范围来看，该组织指出国家债务水平持续上升正成为金融稳定的重大隐患，“尤其是在借贷成本居高不下的背景下”。
The IMF expects the continent’s biggest economy, South Africa, to grow more than four times slower than the region this year and next, as the higher oil prices hit its already fragile prospects. On the flip side, the fund raised its projected growth rate for Nigeria, Africa’s top crude oil producer, to 4.2%, citing a “favorable terms of trade effect.”Looking globally, the IMF named rising national debt as a growing risk to financial stability, “especially with high borrowing costs.”
上周，世界银行也指出，近五分之四的非洲国家用于偿还债务的利息支出，已超过了其在医疗或教育领域的投入。
Last week, the World Bank said that nearly four-fifths of African countries spend more on interest payments than on health or education.
