说央行不喜欢根据极端天气制定政策，这简直是轻描淡写。但它们无法回避强厄尔尼诺现象在亚洲引发的经济连锁反应。
To say that central banks dislike making policy based on extreme weather is an understatement. But they can’t duck the economic reverberations of the powerful El Niño that’s roiling Asia.
干旱是货币当局本可避免的又一冲击。他们花了数年时间才控制住疫情后经济重启和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰引发的通胀飙升。官员们忐忑不安地注视美国实施广泛关税，随后又不得不应对伊朗战争导致的能源价格飙升。
The dry spell is another shock that monetary authorities could do without. They spent years getting on top of the inflation surge that followed the post-pandemic economic reopening and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Officials watched with trepidation as the US imposed extensive tariffs, and then had to deal with the spike in energy prices from the Iran war.
如今，气候带来新一轮打击，政策制定者面临应对一位官员称为“哥斯拉”现象的挑战。这种已给南亚和东南亚带来干旱的天气模式恐将增强。据美国专家预测，它大概率将打破1950年以来的所有纪录。它正扰乱大米等大宗商品市场，加剧缺水，并在更远处减缓巴拿马运河通航，推高航运成本。疲弱的季风是印度储备银行周三加息的因素之一。
Now comes a new blow from climate and the challenge of responding to the phenomenon one policymaker called a “Godzilla.”The weather pattern, which has brought drought to South and Southeast Asia, is likely to get stronger. Odds are it will surpass all records going back to 1950, according to US experts. It’s disrupting markets for commodities like rice, contributing to shortages of water and, further afield, slowing traffic in the Panama Canal, forcing up costs for shippers. The weak monsoon was one factor driving the Reserve Bank of India’s rate increase on Wednesday.
央行将努力弄清影响有多少是短暂的，有多少风险会固化为企业和消费者的决策。眼下的问题是，官员们已没有余地再观望等待。
Central bankers will endeavor to figure out how much of the impact will be short-lived and what risks becoming entrenched in the decisions of companies and consumers. The problem today is that officials are running out of scope to wait and see.
债券收益率在泰国和菲律宾攀升，反映通胀压力重燃。印度长期市场利率在印度储备银行转向更鹰派立场后，升至近三年最高。马尼拉上周传来坏消息：通胀在连续四个月放缓后，8月重新突破7%，意味着本月将进一步收紧政策在所难免。
Bond yields are climbing in Thailand and the Philippines, reflecting renewed inflationary forces. Long-term market rates in India jumped to the highest level in almost three years after the RBI pivoted to a more hawkish stance. And Manila got some bad news last week: After decelerating for four months, inflation punched through 7% in August, which means additional tightening is in the cards this month.
信誉岌岌可危。政策制定者可以忽略一两个孤立的冲击。但如果冲击开始累积并相互加剧，等待的奢侈就不复存在。一些央行在中东冲突爆发时避免加息，现在正在补课。
Credibility is on the line. Policymakers can afford to look through an isolated shock or two. But if they start to stack up and exacerbate each other, the luxury of waiting disappears. Some central banks avoided hiking when the Middle East conflict erupted and are now playing catch up.
但应对可能由恶劣天气引起的较高通胀，与根据气候预测制定政策，两者有着重要区别。金融机构通常由央行监管，必须足够稳健以承受恶劣天气的冲击。火灾、洪水、农业和交通前景也是国家经济健康的重要因素。但环境是央行被指责越权的一个领域。
But there’s an important distinction between responding to higher inflation which can be caused by bad weather, and developing policy according to climate projections. Financial institutions, often regulated by central banks, must be sturdy enough to withstand the impact of severe weather. Fires, flooding, the outlook for agriculture and transportation are all important factors in the economic health of nations, too. But the environment is one area where central banks have been accused of over-reach.
承担额外责任很有诱惑力，尤其是当立法机构似乎无法有效或及时应对天气事件时。但如果在价格稳定或稳健劳动力市场等传统使命上失职，其他举措——无论多么值得赞赏——都可能招致反弹。这一话题在美国尤为敏感，美联储已在一些气候议题上的参与上退缩。然而，大西洋彼岸的工作仍在继续。欧洲央行一位高级官员本月表示，试图否认环境变化对经济的影响是鲁莽的。这与其说是使命蠕变，不如说是认清现实。
It’s tempting to take on extra responsibilities, especially when legislatures seem unable to deal with weather events effectively or in a timely manner. But fall down on traditional missions like price stability or a solid labor market, and other initiatives — however worthy — can lead to backlash. The subject is particularly sensitive in the US, where the Federal Reserve has backtracked on some of its engagement on climate issues. Across the Atlantic, however, the work continues. A top official from the European Central Bank said this month that trying to deny the impact of environmental change on the economy is reckless. It’s not so much mission creep as recognizing reality.
美联储尽管在设定利率方面具有独立性，但仍努力嗅探政治风向。2023年共和党控制众议院几天内，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔宣布，美联储不是、也不寻求成为气候政策制定机构。在唐纳德·特朗普第二次就任总统前几天，该行退出了一个从事气候风险研究的央行和监管机构网络。鲍威尔坚称，美联储将专注于本职工作，从而捍卫其自主权。
The Fed, despite its independence in setting rates, endeavors to sniff the political wind. Within days of Republicans taking control of the House of Representatives in 2023, Chair Jerome Powell declared that the Fed isn’t, and doesn’t seek to be, a climate policy shop. Days before Donald Trump was sworn in for a second term as president, the bank quit a network of central banks and regulators engaged in the study of climate risk. The Fed would stick to its knitting, Powell insisted, and thus defend its autonomy.
这种反弹并非美国独有的现象。对澳大利亚储备银行的独立审查发现，气候变化应成为建模和预测的一个因素，但政策应仍由议会主导。最尖锐的批评来自国际清算银行（BIS）的一位前高管，该机构是中央银行的一种“俱乐部”。克劳迪奥·博里奥（Claudio Borio）曾领导货币与经济部门，他几天前表示，傲慢已渗透到政策制定中，央行能够实现的目标与外界对其期望之间出现了危险的鸿沟。
This pushback isn’t a uniquely American phenomenon. An independent review into the Reserve Bank of Australia found that climate change should be a factor in modeling and forecasting, but that policy should remain the domain of parliament. The most scathing critique came from a former executive at the Bank for International Settlements, a kind of club for central banks. Claudio Borio, who led the monetary and economic division, said a few days ago that hubris had infected policy making and that a dangerous gap had opened between what central banks can deliver and what they are expected to achieve.
其中主要错误之一是：“ flirt 与真正远离使命的目标”，例如“绿色转型”或“包容性增长”的理念。央行行长在就任高位时，常会受到前辈的纪念品，比如印有鼓励话语的咖啡杯或机构历史的遗物。这一代央行行长或许真希望自己当初能领到一件防护服。
Among the major errors: “flirting with objectives which are really far away from the mandate” such as “the green transition or the idea of inclusive growth.”Central bankers, on ascending to the top job, often receive mementos from esteemed predecessors such as a coffee mug with encouraging words or a relic of the institution’s history. This generation must wish they had been given a hazmat suit.