Cook Political Report 将四个州长选举的评级向民主党倾斜，该非党派选举预测机构周二表示，所有变动均发生在目前由共和党州长执政的州。其中最显著的变化之一是阿拉斯加，其评级从“摇摆不定”调整为“倾向民主党”。阿拉斯加有三名共和党人和一名民主党人竞逐州长职位，该职位目前由共和党州长迈克·邓利维持有。
Cook Political Report is shifting four gubernatorial races in Democrats' favor, the nonpartisan election handicapper said Tuesday, all in states which currently have Republican governors. Among the most notable shifts is Alaska, which moved from a "tossup" to "lean Democrat." Three Republicans and one Democrat are vying for the state's governor's mansion, which is currently held by GOP Gov. Mike Dunleavy.
2022年，邓利维在三-way竞选中以超过25个百分点的优势赢得连任。阿拉斯加的评级变动——以及内布拉斯加、佛蒙特和俄克拉荷马的变动——发生在民调显示民主党在传统红州地区获得支持，距离11月中期选举不到一个月的时候。Cook Political Report写道，前州众议员乔纳森·克赖斯-汤姆金斯（D-阿拉斯加）在民调中领先于三名共和党候选人甚远。
In 2022, Dunleavy won reelection by more than 25 percentage points in a three-way race. The rating shift in Alaska — as well as in Nebraska, Vermont and Oklahoma — come as polls show Democrats gaining ground in traditionally red areas less than a month out from November's midterms. Cook Political Report wrote that former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D-Alaska) is polling far ahead of the three Republican candidates in the race.
在共和党提名人中，保守派活动家伯纳黛特·威尔逊领先群雄。“共和党的担忧在于，在共和党内部出现分裂的情况下，共和党选民在排名选择投票中可能只会选择他们支持的一名候选人，而不是对多个选项进行排名，这将使克赖斯-汤姆金斯能够巩固多数票，”Cook编辑杰西卡·泰勒在其分析中写道。在内布拉斯加，Cook将州长选举的评级从“稳固共和党”调整为“可能共和党”，因为民调显示现任州长吉姆·皮伦（R）和前州参议员林恩·沃尔茨（D）之间的竞争异常激烈。
Among the GOP's nominees, conservative activist Bernadette Wilson is leading the pack. "The concern for Republicans is that, amid a divided GOP field, Republican voters will only choose one of their candidates on their ranked-choice ballots rather than ranking multiple options, allowing Kreiss-Tomkins to consolidate a majority," Cook editor Jessica Taylor wrote in her analysis. In Nebraska, Cook moved the governor's race from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican," as polling shows an unusually close race between incumbent Gov. Jim Pillen (R) and former state Sen. Lynne Walz (D).
非党派选举预测机构Decision Desk HQ（DDHQ）显示皮伦领先沃尔茨5.3个百分点。在佛蒙特，现任州长菲尔·斯科特（R）与民主党候选人阿曼达·雅努的竞选从“稳固共和党”调整为“可能共和党”，因为最近的民调显示竞争比预期更为激烈。佛蒙特州每两年举行一次州长选举，斯科特在2024年连选时以超过50个百分点的优势获胜。最近一次State Navigate民调显示，斯科特仅以三个百分点领先。
Nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) shows Pillen leading Walz by 5.3 points. In Vermont, incumbent Gov. Phil Scott's (R) race against Democrat Amanda Janoo shifted from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican," as recent polls have shown a closer than expected contest. The state holds gubernatorial elections every two years, and Scott won reelection in 2024 by more than 50 points. A recent State Navigate poll of the race found Scott leading by just three points.
泰勒在她的分析中写道，虽然库克认为这场竞选可能没有竞争力，但显示斯科特支持率下降的民调“值得关注”。在俄克拉荷马州的公开州长选举中，库克将其评级从“稳固共和党”调整为“可能共和党”。共和党候选人迈克·马泽伊，曾任俄克拉荷马州预算秘书，在八月赢得了初选决胜轮——这可能得益于特朗普总统的背书。
Taylor writes in her analysis that while Cook is skeptical the race is competitive, the polls showing Scott with declining support are "worth paying attention to." In Oklahoma's open gubernatorial contest, Cook changed its rating from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican." GOP candidate Mike Mazzei, Oklahoma's former budget secretary, won a primary runoff in August — likely boosted by President Donald Trump's endorsement.
马泽伊正面临州众议院少数党领袖辛迪·芒森（D）的挑战。在泰勒的报道中，她指出共和党州长协会最近斥资超过200万美元购买广告以支持马泽伊，并表示此前民主党的私人民调曾显示这是一场竞争激烈的选举。
Mazzei is facing off against state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson (D). In Taylor's write-up, she notes that the Republican Governor's Association recently purchased more than $2 million in ads to support Mazzei and says that private Democratic polling previously showed a competitive race.