Netflix的好消息是：它曾经历过类似情况。2022年，在多年高速增长和疯狂支出之后，流媒体平台突然失去了订阅用户。于是出现了裁员、匆忙转向其一直批评的广告模式，以及整个行业的幸灾乐祸。但事实证明，Netflix的增长问题被夸大了。或者说，其增长问题并未成为其流媒体竞争对手的机遇。多年后，Netflix在付费流媒体服务中的领先地位仍未改变。
The good news for Netflix: It's been here before. In 2022, after years of breakneck growth and go-go spending, the streamer suddenly lostrs. Cue layoffs, a hasty pivot to an ad model it had always criticized, and tons of industry schadenfreude. But it turned out that Netflix's growth problems were overstated. Or at least, that its growth problems weren't a sign of opportunity for its streaming rivals. Years later, Netflix's position at the top of paid streaming services remains unchanged.
与此同时，华尔街对观望中的竞争者如派拉蒙和华纳兄弟探索频道挣扎求生感到厌倦——这也是为什么这两家公司如今都被埃利森家族所收购的原因。
Meanwhile, Wall Street has grown tired of watching would-be competitors like Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery struggle to make headway — which is why both of those companies are now owned by the Ellison family.
Netflix的坏消息是：它四年前拉动的那些杠杆如今似乎已不再可用。它已经尝试了广告模式，也尝试了直播体育——这两项都是它曾经明确表示不会涉足的。进军视频游戏领域似乎也没有取得什么成效。与此同时，有持续不断的报道表明，不仅Netflix的用户增长和收入增长正在放缓，其现有用户也发现该服务的吸引力不如过去。Netflix对此的回应是坚称其用户参与度其实完全正常——随后宣布将减少向外界提供的受众数据，以此让外界更难理解其表现。
The bad news for Netflix: The levers it pulled four years ago no longer seem available. It has already done the ads thing, and the live sports thing — another move they had previously sworn off. A foray into video games doesn't seem to have produced much at all. Meanwhile there has been a steady series of reports indicating that not only is Netflix'sr and revenue growth slowing, but its existingrs are finding the service less engaging than in the past. Netflix responded to that one by arguing that its engagement was just fine, really — and then announced it would make it harder to understand its performance by cutting back on the audience data it provides to the outside world.
最令人担忧的是：华尔街和媒体行业其他人士已经开始意识到，Netflix的竞争对手不仅仅是其他付费流媒体平台，还包括YouTube、Instagram和TikTok这样的巨头平台。这些公司可能没有下一部《怪奇物语》，但它们也不需要。它们拥有几乎无限的内容，要么几乎不花钱（Instagram和TikTok），要么前期几乎不花钱（YouTube）。而且它们将这些内容免费提供给用户，形成一个永不停歇的短视频洪流。
Most concerning: Wall Street and the rest of the media industry have started catching up to the fact that Netflix's competition isn't just other paid streamers, but giant platforms — YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok. Those companies may not have the next "Stranger Things," but they don't have to. They have unlimited content that costs them either nothing (Instagram and TikTok) or nothing upfront (YouTube). And they provide it to consumers for free, in a never-ending river of clips.
虽然可以看到Netflix正在尝试，它拥有大量视频播客，因此Netflix现在也在这样做。但这些都没有说服华尔街，这也是为什么Netflix股价在过去一年里下跌了43%。其中一些是对公司追求HBO和华纳兄弟的反应 — — 这是一次不符合其常规的巨额并购举动，投资者对此表示反感。但Netflix在放弃该计划后，股东仍持怀疑态度。
It's very hard to compete with that, though you can see Netflix tryinghas a lot of video podcasts, so now Netflix is doing that, too. None of that has convinced Wall Street, which is why Netflix stock is down 43% over the last year. Some of that was a reaction to the company's pursuit of HBO and Warner Bros. — an uncharacteristic mega M&A swing that investors hated. But after Netflix bailed on that one, shareholders remain skeptical.
这可能就是为什么Netflix股价在周三没有变动的原因，就在公司宣布将裁员6%之后。裁员可以降低Netflix的成本并提升其利润率。但这并不能帮助公司实现增长 — — 也无助于其与残酷的大型科技平台竞争。
That may be why Netflix stock isn't moving on Wednesday, after the company announced it is laying off 6% of its workforce. Cutting heads can cut Netflix's costs and improve its margins. But it doesn't help the company grow — or help it compete with ruthless Big Tech platforms.