
Netflix正陷入低迷 — — 而这不仅仅是因为你找不到一部热门新剧来观看。这家流媒体巨头的股价在过去12个月里下跌了42%,并且已经从去年夏天的历史高点几乎腰斩。Netflix在周三进行了四年来最大规模的裁员,裁减了约1000名员工,大约占公司总人数的6%。那么,到底出了什么问题?Netflix的观众增长放缓,因为像YouTube这样的免费竞争对手正在获得势头,而像游戏和播客这样的举措尚未成为爆款。
Netflix is in a slump — and it's not just because you can't find a hot new show to watch. The streaming titan's shares are down 42% in the last 12 months and have been nearly cut in half from their all-time high last summer. Netflix had its biggest round of layoffs in four years on Wednesday, cutting about 1,000 employees, roughly 6% of the company. So, what's going wrong? Netflix's viewership growth has slowed as free competitors like YouTube gain momentum, and initiatives like games and podcasts have yet to become breakout hits.
再加上公司对华纳兄弟的意外收购要约(后来被放弃),一些投资者感到不安。联席首席执行官泰德·萨兰多斯和格雷格·彼得斯在一份备忘录中表示,娱乐全球“要求我们在人力和资源的优先分配上保持纪律”,但补充说公司仍在按计划实现今年的财务目标。Netflix的许多困难并非“怪奇物语”制造商所独有,这家公司通过开创付费电视流媒体颠覆了好莱坞,并对文化产生了重大影响。
Add in the company's surprise bid for Warner Bros., which it later abandoned, and some investors are feeling on edge. Co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters said in a memo that entertaining the world "requires us to be disciplined about where we prioritize our people and resources" but added that the company is still on track to reach its financial goals this year. Many of Netflix's struggles aren't unique to the "Stranger Things" maker, which disrupted Hollywood by pioneering paid TV streaming and has a major influence over culture.
“即使是顶级流媒体公司也无法免疫于停滞和财务困难,”EMARKETER的媒体分析师罗斯·贝内斯说道,该公司是《商业内幕》的姐妹公司。其他娱乐巨头如迪士尼和NBC环球最近也转向了裁员。以下是Netflix目前面临的五大挑战。尽管Netflix仍在以健康的速度增长收入并创造数十亿利润,但华尔街对其观众趋势感到担忧。
"Even the top streaming companies are not immune to stagnation and financial difficulties," said Ross Benes, a media analyst at EMARKETER, Business Insider's sister company. Other entertainment giants like Disney and NBCUniversal have turned to layoffs recently. Here are five of the biggest challenges facing Netflix right now. Although Netflix is still growing revenue at a healthy pace while generating billions in profits, Wall Street is concerned about its viewership trends.
Netflix联席首席执行官泰德·萨兰多斯在上个月的一次活动中对彭博社表示:“我们的增长速度没有我想象的那么快,我们正在努力加快这一进程。”Netflix在2026年上半年全球观看时长同比增长2%,达到970亿小时。该流媒体巨头还在上一季度宣布,将其参与度报告的发布频率从每年两次降至每年一次。
Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos told Bloomberg at an event last month that "we're not growing as fast as I want us to, and we're working on making that move faster." Netflix grew global viewing hours by 2% year over year to 97 billion in the first half of 2026. The streaming giant also announced last quarter that it would share its engagement report only once a year, down from twice a year.
在宣布这一举措时,Netflix 告诉投资者:“参与度不仅仅是观看时长的数量,还指我们内容的质量和多样性。” 投资者担心,参与度增长放缓可能会损害 Netflix 留住客户和说服他们支付更高费用的能力,尽管该流媒体平台的取消率在行业中最低。正如 Greenlight Analytics 分析师布兰登·卡茨所说,参与度也是“广告商的黄金指南针”,因为更高的使用率有助于他们触及更广泛的受众。
When announcing the move, Netflix told investors that "engagement is not just the quantity of view hours, but also refers to the quality and variety of our offering." Investors are worried that slowing engagement growth could hurt Netflix's ability to retain customers and persuade them to pay more, though the streamer has an industry-low cancellation rate. Engagement is also "the golden compass for advertisers" since higher usage helps them reach broader audiences, said Brandon Katz, an analyst at Greenlight Analytics.
如果 Netflix 继续增长观众规模,它可能会向广告商收取更高的费用。缺乏新的爆款热门剧也让 Netflix 分析师感到担忧。“怪奇物语”是该平台有史以来最大的热门剧,该剧去年已结束,Netflix 需要寻找新的系列和爆款热门内容来取代它。“娱乐本质上是主观且波动大的行业,”卡茨说。尽管 Netflix 在付费同行中仍然领先于观众人数和利润,但像 YouTube、Tubi 和 Roku 频道这样的免费流媒体服务正在获得人气,尤其是在年轻观众中。
If Netflix keeps growing viewership, it could charge advertisers higher rates. The lack of a new breakout hit is also troubling for Netflix analysts. "Stranger Things," the platform's biggest show ever, ended last year, and the streamer needs to find new franchises and buzzy hits that can replace it. "Entertainment is an inherently subjective and streaky industry," Katz said. While Netflix is still leading its paid peers in viewership and profits, free streaming services like YouTube, Tubi, and The Roku Channel are gaining popularity, especially among younger audiences.
根据尼尔森的数据,YouTube 在美国电视上的观众份额在 7 月达到 14.2%,几乎是 Netflix 7.8% 份额的两倍。Roku 的免费流媒体服务和 Tubi 也是 formidable 的竞争对手,其份额分别为 2.9% 和 2%。这些免费服务的增长伴随着像 Netflix 这样的付费流媒体平台提高价格。Netflix 联合首席执行官格雷格·彼得斯曾表示,公司正在考虑在某些市场推出免费服务。
YouTube's viewership share on US TVs was 14.2% in July — nearly double Netflix's 7.8% share, according to Nielsen. Roku's free streamer and Tubi are also formidable competitors with shares of 2.9% and 2%, respectively. These no-cost services have grown as paid streamers like Netflix have raised their prices. Netflix is considering starting a free offering in some markets, co-CEO Greg Peters has said.
此外,TikTok 和 Instagram 等社交媒体平台的流行也在抢夺观看时长。Netflix 正在通过投资视频播客和创作者来应对社交媒体竞争对手,以提升参与度并与年轻观众建立联系,同时不造成财务负担。“面临日益增长的压力,Netflix 将寻求通过低成本内容获得提振来扭转局面,”贝内斯说。
Then there's the popularity of social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram, which are hoovering up viewership hours. Netflix is looking to counter social-media foes by investing in video podcasts and creators to increase engagement and connect with younger viewers without breaking the bank. "With pressure mounting, Netflix will look to turn the tide by getting a boost from low-cost content," Benes said.
Netflix 以 827 亿美元收购华纳兄弟工作室及其流媒体资产的报价吓到了一些股东。最终,派拉蒙天空舞收购了整个公司。虽然加入 HBO Max 和华纳兄弟工作室本可以为 Netflix 提供提振,但投资者担心,由于 Netflix 历史上并未倚重大规模交易,其领导层可能已经没有增长点子了。除了这一说法,股东们还担心 Netflix 将承担巨额债务并经历复杂的整合过程,卡茨如是说。
Netflix spooked some shareholders by making an $82.7 billion bid for the Warner Bros. studio and streaming assets. Paramount Skydance eventually bought the whole company. Although adding HBO Max and the Warner Bros. studio could have given Netflix a boost, investors worried that its leaders had run out of ideas for growth since Netflix hasn't historically turned to major dealmaking. Besides that narrative, shareholders were concerned about Netflix taking on a massive debt load and going through a complex integration process, Katz said.
尽管当交易告吹时 Netflix 获得了 28 亿美元的分手费,但其股价从未完全恢复。Netflix 在游戏和播客方面进行了大力推进,但截至目前,两者尚未成为游戏规则的改变者。今年夏天,该流媒体平台关闭了一对游戏工作室,并在 2024 年 10 月也裁减了一些员工。Netflix 尚未透露其游戏或播客表现的诸多细节。该公司在 7 月的股东信中表示,已成功推出如《FIFA 世界杯:启动版》和《Unhinged》等游戏,且儿童应用 Netflix Playground 的日活用户数量翻了三倍,但未说明这些游戏产生了多少使用时间。
Even though Netflix pocketed a $2.8 billion breakup fee when the deal fell apart, the stock never fully recovered. Netflix has made major pushes into games and podcasts, though neither has been a game changer so far. The streamer shut down a pair of game studios this summer and laid off some staffers in October 2024 as well. Netflix hasn't shared many details about how its games or podcasts are performing. The company said in its July shareholder letter that it had successfully launched games like "FIFA World Cup: Launch Edition" and "Unhinged," and that the kids app Netflix Playground tripled its daily user count, but it didn't specify how much time those games generated.
上一季度的参与度报告中既没有游戏也没有播客。如果其中任何一项真正成为重大成功,公司领导层很可能会向渴望看到新增长点的投资者分享具体的成功指标。TVREV 研究公司的媒体分析师艾伦·沃尔克表示,游戏“不是一个坏主意”,但很可能“不会带来任何新订阅用户”。他补充说,“人们是否会开始在 Netflix 上观看播客还有待观察”,并认为该流媒体应调整其移动应用界面以改善体验。
Neither games nor podcasts were on last quarter's engagement report. If either were a substantial hit, company leadership would likely want to share specific metrics of their success to investors eager to see new growth areas. Games are "not a bad idea" but likely are "not going to get any subs," said Alan Wolk, a media analyst at research firm TVREV. He added that it "remains to be seen if people will start watching podcasts on Netflix," saying the streamer should adjust its mobile app interface to improve the experience.
不过,卡茨表示,播客是拓展新闻等垂直领域的一种低成本方式,同时也可以作为“折衣服时的节目”来培养用户习惯。
Still, podcasts are a cheap way to expand into verticals like news and are also "laundry folding programming" that can form habits, Katz said.
Netflix 正尝试通过投资现场体育赛事来提升用户参与度,包括圣诞节当天和感恩节前一天的 NFL 比赛、MLB 全垒打大赛,以及像泰森·弗里和安东尼·约书亚之间的拳击赛这样的一次性活动。虽然 Netflix 高管表示这些活动能以异常高的速度推动订阅增长,但由于 ESPN 等电视网络以及亚马逊和 YouTube 等科技巨头之间的竞价战,体育版权费用也在不断攀升。
Another way Netflix is trying to boost engagement is investing in live sports — including NFL games on Christmas Day and the day before Thanksgiving, the MLB Home Run Derby, and one-off events like a boxing match between Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua. While Netflix executives have said these events drive subscriptions at an unusually high rate, sports rights are also increasingly expensive due to bidding wars between TV networks like ESPN and tech giants like Amazon and YouTube.
现场体育赛事是一种有效的用户获取工具,能够帮助 Netflix 扩大其初具规模的广告业务。沃尔克表示:“体育是单一文化的最后残余,也是他们能够接触到那些原本不会看到广告的人群的地方。”然而,体育赛事成本高昂,且几乎没有重播价值,因此更像是提升参与度的临时方案,而非长期拉动观看量的驱动力。由于大部分重磅赛事版权——从主要的 NFL 套餐到 NBA、大学橄榄球、NFL 以及国际足球——都已被长期锁定,Netflix 还必须在体育投资上更具创意。
Live sports are an effective acquisition tool and can help Netflix scale its budding advertising business. "Sports are the last vestige of the monoculture and where they can reach all the people who never otherwise see ads," Wolk said. However, sports aren't cheap and offer little to no replay value, making them more of a temporary fix for engagement than a long-term driver of viewership. Netflix also has to be creative with its sports investments since most of the marquee rights — from the main NFL packages to the NBA, college football, NFL, and international soccer — are tied up for years.
该流媒体平台确实拿下了 2027 年和 2031 年女子世界杯的现场转播权,希望借此抓住文化热点。
The streamer did secure live rights to the Women's World Cup in 2027 and 2031, which it hopes will capture the cultural zeitgeist.