特朗普政府在恢复黎巴嫩主权方面所做的工作超过了其所有前任，黎巴嫩是一个备受创伤的国家。以色列国防军在2024年对真主党的行动摧毁了该组织，该组织长期以来一直是全球恐怖主义的“A队”。随着黎巴嫩不再处于伊朗和真主党主导的阴影之下，一位亲主权的黎巴嫩总统和总理上台。他们想要做前任从未做过的事情：恢复黎巴嫩国家对武器的垄断控制和对边境的控制，从伊朗的代理人手中夺回权力，并剥夺德黑兰在黎巴嫩战争与和平事务上的决定权。
The Trump administration has done more than any of its predecessors to restore sovereignty for a much traumatized nation, Lebanon. The Israel Defense Forces’ operations in 2024 against Hezbollah decimated that organization, long the "A Team" in global terror. With Lebanon no longer under the shadow of Iranian and Hezbollah dominance, a pro-sovereignty Lebanese president and prime minister came to office. They want to do what none of their predecessors would do: restore the Lebanese state's monopoly of arms and control of its borders, regain power from Iran's proxy, and remove from Tehran the decisions of war and peace in Lebanon.
美国随后在2026年6月推出了一项三边框架协议，采取分阶段、基于条件的方法，以解除真主党武装并恢复黎巴嫩对其全部领土的控制，包括南部地区。此外，它还为黎巴嫩与以色列之间未来的和平关系铺平了道路，结束了这种暴力循环——这种循环曾让这两个国家陷入他人的冲突之中，即巴勒斯坦解放组织、叙利亚和伊朗。
America followed up in June 2026 with a trilateral framework agreement for a phased, conditions-based approach to disarming Hezbollah and restoring Lebanese control over all its territory, including in the South. Moreover, it placed on the horizon a future of peaceful relations between Lebanon and Israel, ending a cycle of violence that locked these two nations into the conflicts of others — the PLO, Syria and Iran.
尽管中东其他地区的冲突和外交经历了起伏，但黎巴嫩、以色列和美国的代表一直定期会面，以履行这一承诺。虽然黎巴嫩提供了一线希望的亮点，但特朗普倡议奠定的良好基础正在失去动力。这并非出于善意的缺失，而是所有相关方缺乏持续的、高层次的、强烈的行动。我在贝鲁特和耶路撒冷度过了十天，听到公众对这一进程的支持日益增长。
Despite the ups and downs of conflict and diplomacy elsewhere in the Middle East, representatives of Lebanon, Israel and America have met regularly to fulfill this promise. While Lebanon offers a bright point of hope, the excellent groundwork laid by the Trump initiative is losing momentum. It is not because of a lack of goodwill, but an absence of persistent, high-level, intense action by all concerned. During ten days in Beirut and Jerusalem, I heard growing public support for this process.
黎巴嫩的民意调查显示，关于解除真主党武装以及与以色列和平的禁忌正在迅速消散。真主党在其自身什叶派社区中的影响力已经消失。其失去信誉的领导人曾试图煽动内战以击败六月的三边协议；但无人响应。这是一种流动的局面，而黎巴嫩国家——在近50年里大部分时间缺席南部地区——现在应该填补这一真空。
Polling in Lebanon shows that taboos about disarming Hezbollah and peace with Israel are fast eroding. Hezbollah's standing in its own Shia community has evaporated. Its discredited leaders tried to incite civil war to defeat the June trilateral agreement; no one answered the call. It is a fluid situation, and the Lebanese state — mostly absent from the South for nearly 50 years — should fill the vacuum now.
尽管这些条件令人鼓舞，但实施进展缓慢。以色列最近释放低安全级别的黎巴嫩囚犯有所帮助，黎巴嫩方面也在善意努力寻找在黎巴嫩作战中失踪的以色列士兵遗骸。更多举措有助于展示和平的好处。以色列政府表示，已结束在南部的军事行动，并开始将部分士兵重新部署回以色列。以色列一代前单方面从黎巴嫩和加沙撤军的经验表明，必须将控制权移交给伙伴。
Despite these promising conditions, implementation has been leisurely. The recent Israeli release of low-security Lebanese prisoners helped, and the Lebanese are making a good faith effort to locate the remains of Israeli soldiers lost in battle in Lebanon. More gestures would help demonstrate the benefits of peace. The Israeli government has said it ended its military operations in the South and begun to re-deploy some soldiers to Israel. The lesson of Israel's unilateral withdrawals from Lebanon and Gaza a generation ago is the imperative of handing over to a partner.
三边框架正是为此而设，要求以色列清除真主党在试点区域的存在，并在撤军过程中让黎巴嫩军队进入，并由国际核查机制评估整个过程。然而，协议签署三个月后，以色列尚未向黎巴嫩移交任何更多领土，核查团队也尚未抵达。以色列的明智自身利益在于，通过其在六月同意的分阶段撤军，提升黎巴嫩军队的可信度。
The trilateral framework calls for that, with Israel clearing Hezbollah out of pilot zones and bringing the Lebanese Army in as it pulls out, with an international verification structure assessing the process. Yet, three months after the agreement, Israel has not handed any more territory to the Lebanese, nor has a verification team arrived. Israel's enlightened self-interest is to bolster the credibility of the Lebanese Army with the phased withdrawals it agreed to in June.
以色列的选举和联合政府形成过程——直至中旬十二月才可能形成政府——限制了可选方案。尽管如此，在保障以色列安全成果方面保持外交动力至关重要。在恢复试点区域方法的正轨时，黎巴嫩军队完全没有理由不在其他地区重新夺回武器的垄断权。真主党并不惧怕黎巴嫩军队。其领导人及其伊朗主子认为，黎巴嫩军队持谨慎态度，他们能够熬过以色列和美国。
Israel's election and coalition formation process — with little chance of a government emerging until mid-December — limits options. Nonetheless, diplomatic momentum in preserving Israel's security gains is essential. While getting the pilot zone methodology back on track, there is no reason for the Lebanese Army to refrain from regaining the monopoly of arms elsewhere. Hezbollah does not fear the Lebanese Army. Its leaders and their Iranian masters assess that the army is cautious and that they can outwait Israel and America.
这种情况必须改变。责任在于以色列和黎巴嫩，但美国在地面上的更强存在是不可或缺的，且应与核查过程分离。适量的嵌入式美军士兵可以在旅指挥层面为黎巴嫩军队提供建议和协助。他们不会处于危险之中，因为他们将得到黎巴嫩士兵的保护。
That must change. The burden is on Israel and Lebanon, but a stronger American presence on the ground is indispensable, separate from the verification process. A modest number of embedded American soldiers can advise and assist the Lebanese Army at the brigade command level. They will not be in harm’s way, as they will be protected by Lebanese soldiers.
它将在恢复主权的同时加强黎巴嫩军队，并使美国人能够直接评估和建议黎巴嫩军队如何最好地独立行动、清除任何残余的真主党影响。美国驻耶路撒冷和贝鲁特的大使肩负着关键作用，但三方谈判不能仅由他们来处理。一名全职特使应每周驻守在这两个国家领导人的门前，推动、施压、评估、倾听并克服障碍。该团队还应争取阿拉伯和欧洲的支持，不仅是为了黎巴嫩军队，更是为了帮助国家修复南黎巴嫩，作为伊朗资助的替代方案。
It will strengthen the Lebanese Army as it restores sovereignty and allow Americans to assess and advise directly how best the Lebanese Army can act on its own and expunge any residual Hezbollah influence. American ambassadors in Jerusalem and Beirut have critical roles to play, but trilateral negotiations cannot be handled by them alone. A full-time envoy should be on the doorsteps of leaders in those two countries every week, pushing, prodding, assessing, listening, and overcoming obstacles. That team should also enlist Arab and European support not just for the Lebanese Army, but to help the state repair south Lebanon as an alternative to Iranian funding.
美国能做的最好事情是对伊朗施加压力。随着美国限制伊朗，真主党正感受到痛苦。但这不仅仅是经济上压制对手的问题。黎巴嫩人将密切关注在特朗普政府剩余时期，美伊之间的力量对比将如何落地，并据此调整他们的预期。华盛顿比以往任何时候都更接近终结伊朗及其代理人所制造的暴力循环——这些暴力已经摧毁了中东如此多的地区。
The best thing America can do is keep the pressure on Iran. As the U.S. constrains Iran, Hezbollah is feeling the pain. But it is not just a question of squeezing our adversaries economically. Lebanese will watch closely which way the power balance between America and Iran lands during the remainder of the Trump administration, and adjust their expectations accordingly. Washington is closer than ever to ending the cycles of violence generated by Iran and its proxies that have destroyed so much of the Middle East.
对我们的对手施加联合压力，并支持以色列和黎巴嫩寻求实现和平的领导人，需要坚持和积极行动。通过加倍努力，黎巴嫩可以成为特朗普在动荡地区的首个成功案例。大卫·黑尔是中东研究所的杰出外交学者。黑尔此前曾担任美国国务院政治事务副部长、美国驻黎巴嫩大使以及中东和平问题特使。
Combined pressure on our adversaries, and support for leaders in Israel and Lebanon seeking to achieve peace, require persistence and active measures. With redoubled effort, Lebanon can be Trump's first success in a troubled region. David Hale is a Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Hale previously served as U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon, and Special Envoy for Middle East Peace.