
随着大陆经济增长停滞,一场围绕资源的激烈代际争夺正日益白热化。
A bitter generational battle over resources is boiling over as economic growth on the continent stalls.
近年来,我们目睹了一股强大政治力量的崛起:Z世代抗议者。他们在孟加拉国、尼泊尔、秘鲁和马达加斯加推翻了政府。他们是印度近年来最大规模抗议的幕后推手,迄今为止,这些抗议已迫使该国教育部长辞职。
Over the last few years we’ve seen the rise of a formidable political force: Gen Z protesters. They have toppled governments in Bangladesh, Nepal, Peru and Madagascar. They’re behind India’s largest protests in years, which so far have forced the resignation of the country’s education minister.
如今,我们正目睹法国年轻人的抗议活动。他们与全球其他Z世代抗议者一样愤怒,但缺乏同样的政治影响力。原因在于,与西方以外地区的同龄人不同,欧洲的年轻人正成为一个日益减少的人口群体。今日,我的同事阿曼达·陶布(Amanda Taub)撰文探讨了西方老龄化社会中日益激烈的代际紧张关系,以及为何这些紧张关系有可能演变成恶性循环。
Now we’re witnessing protests by young people in France, who share the anger of other Gen Z protesters around the world, but not the same political power. Because unlike their contemporaries outside the West, young people in Europe are a shrinking demographic. Today my colleague Amanda Taub writes about the intense generational tensions in the West’s aging societies and why they risk becoming a vicious cycle.
零和博弈作者:阿曼达·陶布法国或许看起来是一个永远在抗议的国家。但若你试图理解由年轻人因学校破旧而愤怒而引发的最新抗议浪潮,或许倒退几年回顾会有所帮助。
A zero-sum game By Amanda Taub France may seem like a nation of perpetual protest. But if you are trying to make sense of the latest wave of demonstrations spurred on by young people angry over dilapidated schools, it might help to cast your mind back just a few years.
不久前,当总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙将退休年龄从62岁提高到64岁时,法国人走上了街头。抗议声浪如此之大,以至于政府最终叫停了该措施;法国的养老金仍然是该国财政的最大负担之一,而该国也是欧洲债务水平最高的国家之一。
Not long ago, the French took to the streets when President Emmanuel Macron raised the retirement age from 62 to 64. The outcry was so intense that the government eventually suspended the measure; France’s pensions remain one of the biggest drains on the budget of a nation with one of the highest debt levels in Europe.
如今的抗议者走上街头,要求为年轻人争取更多资源;而早些时候的抗议者则是为了保障老年人的资源而上街。在这两种情况下,抗议者都认为自己正在与法国政府进行斗争;同样可以说,他们实际上一直在 — 并且仍在 — 与彼此进行斗争。
Today’s protesters have taken to the barricades to demand more resources for the young, while the earlier ones marched to protect resources for the old. In both cases, the protesters saw themselves in a fight with the French government; it might be equally valid to say they were — and still are — in a fight with each other.
目前在欧洲从法国到西班牙再到英国和比利时蔓延的不满情绪涉及诸多方面:学校、住房、养老金、失业。但退一步看,这也关乎一件大事——一场围绕经济蛋糕的代际之争,而该蛋糕的规模因欧洲长期的低速经济增长而被固定。“老人统治”随着欧洲人口老龄化,冲突可能难以避免。牛津大学教授蒂姆·弗兰达斯表示,这是因为不同代际最终拥有不同的经济利益。
The dissatisfaction currently roiling Europe, from France to Spain to Britain to Belgium, is about many things: schools, housing, pensions, unemployment. But step back, and it’s also about one big thing — a generational fight over an economic pie fixed in its size by the continent’s chronic slow economic growth. ‘Gerontonomia’As Europe’s population ages, conflict may be unavoidable. Because ultimately, different generations have different economic interests, said Tim Vlandas, a professor at Oxford.
年轻人需要教育投资、强劲的劳动力市场和可负担的住房。相比之下,65岁以上的人往往希望获得慷慨的养老金和社会护理,维护其住房及其他资产的价值,并实现低通胀,哪怕这会导致更高的失业率。(虽然没有人喜欢通胀,但依赖储蓄和固定收入的退休人员对通胀尤为敏感。)随着老年人在老龄化社会中占比上升,他们的政治影响力也随之增长,并且他们一直在得逞。
Young people need investments in education, a strong labor market and affordable housing. People over 65, by contrast, tend to want generous pensions and social care, protection for the value of their homes and other assets, and low inflation, even at the cost of higher unemployment. (No one likes inflation, but retirees who rely on savings and fixed incomes are particularly sensitive to it.) As older people become a larger portion of the population in aging societies, their political influence has also grown, and they have been getting their way.
弗兰达斯称这一现象为“老人统治”,这是一种“民主维持的经济停滞”。这种病症及其表现广泛存在。在法国,青年失业率约为20%。今年第二季度国内生产总值增长降至零。养老金开支约占公共支出的四分之一,部分原因在于退休年龄过低,但改变它几乎没有政治意愿。许多人,尤其是左翼人士,认为既能保障养老金又能增加教育支出是可能的。
The result is what Vlandas calls “gerontonomia,” a form of “democratically sustained economic stagnation.”The disease and its symptoms are widespread. In France, youth unemployment stands at around 20 percent. GDP growth fell to zero percent in the second quarter of this year. Pension costs make up approximately a quarter of all public spending, in part because the retirement age is so low, but there is little political appetite for changing it. Many, particularly on the left, have argued that it is possible to preserve pensions and increase education spending.
但问题在于如何筹资。迫在眉睫的债务危机威胁使得进一步举债变得困难。而财富税虽然常在政治上具有吸引力,但过去并未筹集到多少资金。
But the question of how to pay remains. The looming threat of a debt crisis makes further borrowing difficult. And wealth taxes, while often politically appealing, have not raised much money in the past.
西班牙的情况也类似,该国是欧洲人口最老龄化的国家之一,最近因住房危机引发的抗议活动促使首相佩德罗·桑切斯决定举行新选举。虽然抗议活动的面孔是一名87岁的租房者,但许多年轻人也参与其中,因为住房危机对他们的影响尤为严重。
The situation is similar in Spain, which has one of the oldest populations in Europe, and where protests over a housing crisis recently contributed to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s decision to call new elections. While the face of the protests was an 87-year-old renter, many young people joined, because the housing crisis disproportionately affects them.
西班牙青年失业率超过22%。房价上涨速度远快于工资增长,这增加了老一代人的财富,但导致许多年轻人只能选择与父母同住直至30多岁,或者牺牲储蓄来支付高昂的租金。
Spanish youth unemployment is over 22 percent. House prices have risen far more quickly than wages, adding to the wealth of older generations, but leaving many young people with a choice of living with their parents well into their 30s or sacrificing savings to pay a steep rent.
在英国,青年失业率较低,约为16%。但住房成本高昂,尤其是在伦敦及其周边地区,那里是大多数就业增长的所在地。而且该国一直坚持所谓的“三重锁定”政策,多年来该政策确保养老金的增长速度快于工资。
In Britain, the youth unemployment rate is lower, around 16 percent. But housing costs are steep, particularly in and around London, where most job growth is located. And the country has committed to the so-called “triple lock,” a policy that has for years ensured pensions have risen faster than wages.
在最近的一次演讲中,首相安迪·伯纳姆承诺要改革这项长期被视为不可触碰的政策。一位工会领袖称这一承诺“几乎是选举上的疯狂”,尽管伯纳姆承诺将节省下来的资金用于成人社会护理,这也将主要惠及老年人。
In a recent speech, Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledged to overhaul the policy, long considered untouchable. One union leader called the pledge “almost electoral insanity,” even though Burnham promised to spend the money saved on adult social care, which would largely benefit the aged, too.
为什么老年人占优势?富裕国家可以预见将有更多此类冲突,但老年人可能继续主导政治议程。
Why older people have an edge Wealthy nations can look forward to more of these battles, but older people may continue to set the political agenda.
巴黎政治学院政治学教授凯文·阿尔塞诺表示,老年人有利于动员他人支持他们的诉求,因为他们有机构站在他们这边。政党和工会有动力保护老年人的利益,因为老年人构成了他们成员和投票联盟的主体。
The elderly are well-placed to rally others to their cause, because they have institutions on their side, said Kevin Arceneaux, a political science professor at Sciences Po in Paris. Political parties and unions have an incentive to protect the interests of older people, who make up the bulk of their membership and voting coalitions.
也更容易说服年轻人支持他们将来可能获得的养老福利,而不是说服老年人为他们永远不会自己使用的教育多付钱。专家表示,年轻一代也分享了用于老年人支出的一些好处。仍然和父母同住的成年子女可能会把养老金视为家庭收入的一部分,而不是从年轻劳动者向退休人员的转移。
It is also easier to convince young people to support old-age benefits that they might one day receive than it is to convince old people to pay more for education that they will never use themselves. Younger generations share some of the benefits from spending on the elderly, experts say. Adult children still living at home may see pension payments as part of their household’s income, rather than a transfer from young workers to retirees.
在英国,伦敦政治经济学院的研究员劳拉·塞拉发现,适龄劳动人口一代常常担心,如果养老金被削减,他们可能不得不自己供养年迈的父母。事实上,法国的年轻人曾大规模走上街头,支持2023年反对马克龙提出的养老金改革方案的抗议活动。
In Britain, Laura Serra, a researcher at the London School of Economics, has found that working-age generations often worry they will have to support their aging parents themselves if pensions are cut. In fact, France’s young people were out in force to support the 2023 protests against Macron’s proposed pension reform.
但随着欧洲大陆大部分地区经济增长放缓,政府借贷变得难以承受,可能不得不做出选择。而当选择出现时,年轻人,甚至整个经济体,可能会处于不利地位。
But with economic growth slow in much of the continent, and government borrowing becoming prohibitively expensive, choices may have to be made. And when they are, young people, and perhaps economies as a whole, will be at a disadvantage.
上周,随着年轻人在全国范围内封锁学校,法国立法者聚会审议明年的预算。他们的首要举措之一是保留对退休人员的税收减免。更多要闻:卫星挫折对乌克兰的影响乌克兰表示,其军队完全失去了对星盾(Starshield)的访问权限,星盾是埃隆·马斯克旗下SpaceX拥有的军事卫星通信平台。该服务由五角大楼付费,却在未提前警告的情况下,对时速超过160公里的无人机和其他设备停止运作,导致乌克兰军事行动受阻。
Last week, as young people blocked schools across the country, France’s lawmakers met to review next year’s budget. One of their first moves was to preserve a tax break for pensioners. MORE TOP NEWS A satellite setback for Ukraine Ukraine said its military had lost full access to Starshield, the military satellite communications platform owned by Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Without any warning, the service — which is paid for by the Pentagon — stopped working for drones and other devices traveling faster than 160 kilometers per hour, causing disruptions to Ukraine’s military operations.
限制措施出台之际,乌克兰正面临来自特朗普总统的日益增加的压力,特朗普曾呼吁基辅停止袭击俄罗斯的炼油厂。就在星盾服务被限流时,俄罗斯对乌克兰的能源基础设施发射了数十枚弹道导弹,导致首都基辅60万人断电。以下是关于星盾的关键信息。
The restrictions come as Ukraine faces increasing pressure from President Trump, who has called on Kyiv to stop striking Russian oil refineries. As the satellite service was throttled, Russia unleashed dozens of ballistic missiles against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, cutting power to 600,000 people in the capital, Kyiv. Here’s what to know about Starshield.
其他新闻 梵蒂冈表示,教皇利奥十四世在接受手术切除肺部癌性结节后,已经能够进食和行走。
OTHER NEWS Pope Leo XIV was eating and walking after undergoing surgery to remove a cancerous nodule on his lung, the Vatican said.
美国军方官员表示,美国正向拉美派遣数百名士兵,以训练并与当地部队进行演习。能源价格上涨推动了美国9月份的通胀上升。伊朗加大了对霍尔木兹海峡船只的袭击力度。
The U.S. is sending several hundred soldiers to train and conduct exercises with local forces in Latin America, U.S. military officials said. Higher energy prices drove up inflation in the U.S. in September. Iran ramped up its attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
土耳其警方突袭了哈尔克电视台总部,使该台成为最后一家受政府控制的、批评总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的主要广播媒体。塔利班政府暂停了BBC在阿富汗全国FM广播电台的传输。
The police in Turkey raided the headquarters of Halk TV, bringing under government control the last major broadcaster critical of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Taliban government suspended the transmission of BBC broadcasts on FM radio stations across Afghanistan. Ethiopia and Eritrea, allies just a few years ago in battles with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, are now on the brink of fighting each other. Japan protested Russia’s detention of a Japanese journalist accused of spying.
埃塞俄比亚和厄立特里亚曾在几年前并肩作战,对抗提格雷人民解放阵线,如今两国濒临互相开战。日本抗议俄罗斯拘留一名被指控从事间谍活动的日本记者。
WHAT ELSE IS HAPPENING Sally Rooney said her novels will no longer be sold in Britain because of her support for a pro-Palestinian group that is banned as a terrorist organization. Joni Mitchell became an American citizen after living some 60 years in the U.S. TOP OF THE WORLD The most clicked link in your newsletter yesterday was about the Elvis festival in Wales.
其他发生的事情 莎莉·鲁尼表示,她的小说将不再在英国出售,因为她支持一个被列为恐怖组织的亲巴勒斯坦团体。乔尼·米切尔在美国生活约60年后成为美国公民。
HEALING TOUCH OF THE DAY Helping corals survive Researchers in California have come across an intriguing new possibility for treating coral reefs devastated by climate change. During a lab experiment, they observed sick corals recovering after being placed in direct contact with healthy ones.
世界之巅 你昨日通讯中点击量最高的链接是关于威尔士埃尔维斯节的内容。
The healing touch was the result of algae, which corals need to survive, moving from the healthy corals to the struggling ones.
当日治愈之触 珊瑚的康复之触 加利福尼亚州的研究人员发现了一种治疗气候变化导致珊瑚礁受损的有趣新方法。在一次实验中,他们观察到,当病珊瑚与健康珊瑚直接接触时,病珊瑚出现了恢复迹象。这种愈合作用源于珊瑚赖以生存的藻类——从健康珊瑚向受困珊瑚迁移。
MORNING READ My colleague Andrew Higgins returned to China last year for a six-month assignment after decades away. He marveled at how much had changed in the country, with its high-speed trains and dazzling, modern cities. But the bubble burst after a call from an old friend, who canceled their planned get-together because state security officers had paid him a visit. “China suddenly appeared not so much amazing as alarming,” Andrew wrote.about his return to a richer, more paranoid China.
晨读 我的同事安德鲁·希金斯在离开中国数十年后,去年返回中国进行为期六个月的任务。他惊叹于这个国家的巨变——高速铁路和璀璨的现代城市层出不穷。
AROUND THE WORLD Cast adrift: These boat dwellers face eviction For decades, dozens of boat dwellers lived rent-free on a bay just north of San Francisco. To many, the bay was a refuge in one of the most expensive places to live in the U.S. But for some officials and residents, the boats are more like a floating homeless encampment.
但气泡在一位老朋友的来电后破裂了,这位朋友因国家安全官员上门拜访而取消了原定的聚会。“中国突然让人感觉不再那么令人惊叹,而是令人警惕,”安德鲁写道,关于他回到一个更富裕、更多疑的中国。
Officials say the area, known as Richardson Bay, will be cleared of the last “illegally anchored vessels” by today. Chad Wycliffe is one of the final holdouts. “I’ve lived this way for so long that I don’t really know how to live any other way,” he said.about why the boat dwellers prefer life on the water. RECOMMENDATIONS Ride: Some of the best lessons for living a longer life can be found on a surfboard.
环球漂流:这些船上居民面临驱逐数十年来,数十名船上居民一直免费居住在旧金山以北的一个海湾。对许多人来说,这个海湾是美国生活成本最高的地区之一中的一处避难所。但对一些官员和居民而言,这些船只更像是一个漂流的无家可归者聚居地。
Read: “The Sea-King and the Sorceress” dives into the distinct histories of the diverse people who called themselves Vikings. Shift: Is it time to break up with thrifting? Snack: Seaweed is uniquely nutritious, fresh or dried. RECIPE Crisp on the outside and custardy in the center, the pan-fried Japanese pancakes called okonomiyaki traditionally feature a filling of cabbage and pork belly. But the adaptable recipe is great for using up leftovers or other vegetables. WHERE IS THIS?
官员表示,被称为理查森湾的该地区将在今天清除最后的“非法停泊船只”。查德·威克利夫是最后的坚持者之一。“我已经这样生活了很长时间,以至于我不知道还能怎样生活,”他说,解释船上居民为何更喜欢水上生活。
TIME TO PLAY Here are today’s Spelling Bee, Mini Crossword, Wordle and Sudoku. Find all our games here. That’s it for today. See you tomorrow! — Katrin Amanda Taub was our guest writer today. lcome your feedback. Send us your suggestions at theworld@nytimes.com. Katrin Bennhold is the host of The World, the flagship global newsletter of The New York Times.