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为什么美国企业需要在11月后为分裂的华盛顿准备一套统一策略Why corporate America needs one playbook for a divided Washington after November

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2月25日星期二,在华盛顿国会大厦的众议院台阶上,众议院少数党领袖、纽约州民主党人哈基姆·杰弗里斯(右)与马萨诸塞州民主党人、众议院少数党党鞭凯瑟琳·克拉克(中左)一同集会,反对共和党的预算计划。(美联社/J·斯科特·阿普尔怀特)House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., right, joined at center-left by Rep. Katherine Clark, D-Mass., the House minority whip, rallies Democrats against the Republican budget plan, on the House steps at the Capitol in Washington on Tuesday, Feb. 25. (AP/J. Scott Applewhite)

数据中心公司吃尽苦头才明白,赢得华盛顿并不等于赢得全国。他们拿到了许可证,有了相关部门的支持,还有一位警告说拒绝他们的城镇最终会变得“落后和贫穷”的总统。然后邻居们出现了。

Data center companies learned the hard way that winning Washington isn't the same as winning the country. They had the permits, the agencies and a president who warned that towns rejecting them would end up "backwards and poor." Then the neighbors showed up.

下个月的中期选举将陷入同样的陷阱。民调显示民主党可能赢得国会,而每个C层高管都可能产生一种错觉:把民主党控制的国会误认为是民主党控制的华盛顿。

Next month's midterms set the same trap. Polls show Democrats could sweep Congress, and the temptation in every C-suite would be to mistake a Democratic Congress for a Democratic Washington.

当企业传播与政府事务领导人紧密合作时,公司就能避免这种错误。企业传播人员知道,11月的投票无法告诉你利益相关者在未来两年内将出现的每个议题上持何种观点。政府事务人员知道,国会易手并不意味着唐纳德·特朗普总统失去了权力。

Companies avoid that mistake when corporate communications and government affairs leaders work hand in hand. Corporate communications staff know that November's vote won't tell you what stakeholders believe about each issue that comes up in the next two years. Government affairs workers know that Congress' flip doesn't mean President Donald Trump is out of power.

民主党认为蓝色浪潮正在形成。以下是可能阻止它的三股力量。毕竟,选民在2006年把共和党赶出了华盛顿,但乔治·W·布什总统仍在两个月后下令在伊拉克增兵,并在2008年解除了对近海钻探的行政禁令。巴拉克·奥巴马总统在共和党于2014年夺回国会之后,仍推动通过了移民命令、伊朗核协议以及关于性别认同的第九条指引。而乔·拜登总统的联邦贸易委员会在他任职最后几天仍在起诉企业。

DEMOCRATS THINK A BLUE WAVE IS BUILDING. HERE ARE 3 FORCES THAT COULD STOP IT After all, voters sent Republicans packing in 2006, but President George W. Bush still ordered the surge in Iraq two months later and lifted the executive ban on offshore drilling in 2008. President Barack Obama pushed through an immigration order, the Iran nuclear deal and Title IX guidance on gender identity after Republicans took Congress in 2014. And President Joe Biden's Federal Trade Commission kept suing corporations into his final days in office.

在这些案例中,国会权力掌握在总统的对手手中,但监管体系仍然掌握在总统手中。而特朗普的记录表明,他会利用这种权力。他在2018年失去众议院后,并未转向中间路线。他主导了一场持续35天的政府停摆,随后宣布国家紧急状态以资助边境墙。他会达成协议,但只会按自己的条件,而各机构将成为他最强的杠杆。任何假设他将在未来两年安静地当个跛脚鸭的计划,都是在指望一位从未存在过的总统。

In each case, congressional power belonged to the president's opponents while the regulatory regime stayed in his hands. And Trump's record shows that he'll use that power. After losing the House in 2018, he did not pivot to the center. He presided over a 35-day government shutdown and then declared a national emergency to fund the border wall. He will make a deal, but on his own terms, and agencies will be his strongest leverage. Any plan that assumes he will spend two years as a quiet lame duck is hoping for a president who has never existed.

李·卡特:特朗普仍能吸引注意力,但他能否转移选民对账单的关注?

LEE CARTER: TRUMP CAN STILL GET ATTENTION, CAN HE DISTRACT VOTERS FROM THEIR BILLS?

选民也没有改变阵营。投票给民主党并不让选民成为正式党员。白宫所在的政党在过去1900年以来的中间选举中仅四次赢得众议院席位,这意味着即使是适度损失也是常态。重大损失将是所有议题中最具非政治性的:经济,其中伊朗战争和关税导致美国人在每个加油站和每次购物时都要付更多钱。

Voters haven't changed sides, either. Voting for Democrats doesn't make voters card-carrying members. The party in the White House has gained House seats just four times in midterm elections since 1900, which means even modest losses are normal. Big losses will be about the most apolitical of all issues: the economy, where the Iran war and tariffs have raised what Americans pay at every gas station and with every grocery order.

这一切意味着通信和政府事务团队需要重新考虑各组别通常单独处理的利益相关方。数据中心展示了当他们不这样做时会发生什么。我们在十月早些时候为Proven Media Solutions的Insider Insights报告研究该行业时发现,政府事务团队多年一直在争取州和联邦机构的许可以及各级政府当选官员的支持。企业传播似乎直到本地社区——被排除在重大参与者之外——发挥关键作用、导致今年计划开业的40%数据中心推迟开业。

All of this means that communications and government affairs teams need to think through the stakeholders each group normally tackles alone. Data centers show what happens when they don't. When we studied the industry for Proven Media Solutions' Insider Insights report earlier in October, government affairs teams had spent years winning permits from state and federal agencies and support from elected officials at every level of government. Corporate communications seemed to have been left out of the loop until local communities – passed over for the big important players – played a key role in slowing 40% of data centers that were due to open this year.

数据中心忽视了消费者——这可能使美国在人工智能竞赛中付出代价 当前数据中心是热点话题,但还有其他问题需要企业、分部和区域层面的双重职能在选举结果公布后予以考虑。

DATA CENTERS FORGOT THE CONSUMER — AND THAT COULD COST AMERICA THE AI RACE Data centers are the issue du jour, but here are some others that should be considered by both functions at the corporate, division and regional levels once election results are known.

关于多元化、公平和包容(DEI)。企业早已因应相对温和的反对声量而削弱了其最具争议和政治性的方面,但特朗普2025年早期行政命令将该议题推回聚光灯下数月之久。政府承包商受到的打击尤为严重,因为诸如“平等”这类词汇被从网站中删除——这对合同有利,却破坏了员工关系,许多员工认为多元化被利润所取代。

Take DEI. Corporations had already long backed off on their most controversial and political aspects with relatively modest pushback, but Trump's early 2025 executive orders put the issue back in the spotlight for months. Government contractors were especially hard hit as words like "equity" were erased from websites – good for contracts but horrible for employee relations, as many felt that diversity had been traded for profit.

共和党新晋激进议员将全球咨询巨头列为目标,指责其“明显违法”的多元化、公平与包容(DEI)做法。民主党是否应该传唤部分大型政府承包商,就这些变化作证,或公开指控其存在种族主义行为?游说或幕后握手根本解决不了任何问题。在听证会通知下达之前,企业传播部门必须通过所有可能的渠道,与所有利益相关者建立信任,尤其是少数族裔合作伙伴、投资者和员工。

GOP FRESHMAN FIREBRAND TARGETS GLOBAL CONSULTING GIANT OVER 'PLAINLY ILLEGAL' DEI PRACTICES Should Democrats call some of the large government contractors to testify about these changes, or accuse them publicly of racist behavior, lobbying or behind-the-scenes handshakes won't solve a thing. Corporate communications is going to have to build trust with all stakeholders, especially minority partners, investors and employees – through every possible messenger – before the hearing notice arrives.

再看看移民问题,酒店连锁企业因向美国移民和海关执法局(ICE)特工提供住宿而承受着压力。今年1月,由于明尼阿波利斯地区的一家特许经营酒店拒绝为ICE特工提供房间,美国总服务管理局(GSA)将该酒店从联邦住宿计划中除名。几周后,抗议者又因相反的问题占领了曼哈顿希尔顿酒店的大堂。

Or look at immigration, where hotel chains have been under pressure over lodging ICE agents. In January, the General Services Administration removed a Minneapolis-area hotel from federal lodging programs after a Minneapolis-area franchise refused agents rooms. Weeks later, protesters occupied a Manhattan Hilton lobby over the opposite complaint.

这些连锁企业大多成功化解了当地的争议,通常是因为它们明智地先发布声明,然后保持沉默。但一旦国会介入,这种做法可能行不通。要应对这些挑战,既需要与国会各委员会和机构建立政府事务关系,也需要企业传播部门准确把握客户、员工和特许经营权持有者的态度。

The chains largely shook off the local controversies, often because they smartly issued statements and then went quiet, but that may be impossible once Congress is involved. It's going to take government affairs relationships with the committees and agencies, combined with corporate communications' read on customers, employees and franchise owners, to navigate these waters.

正因如此,选举后的计划必须是一份由双方团队共同制定的统一行动指南,明确公司处于弱势的领域、拥有影响力的领域,以及今天的盟友中哪些可能成为明天的批评者。政府事务团队了解无论谁获胜,哪些监管机构、政府雇员和任命官员都将发挥关键作用。企业传播团队则了解客户、员工和社区——他们将评判公司所说的任何话。为某一群体撰写的信息终将被另一群体解读,因此每次传达的信息必须保持一致。

That is why the post-election plan needs to be a single playbook, built by both teams, that maps where the company is vulnerable, where it has leverage and which of today's allies could become tomorrow's critics. Government affairs teams know the regulators, agency staff and appointees who will matter no matter who wins. Corporate communications staff know the customers, employees and communities who will judge whatever the company says. A message written for one group will be read by the other, so it has to be the same story every time.

民主党本应在2004年和2024年之后变得无关紧要,共和党同样也应在2012年和2020年之后如此——据说,2026年也是如此。那些希望口袋里多些钱、又不想让数据中心建在自家后院附近的选民并不会更换政党,而那些按此逻辑进行规划的公司,最终只能与一个并不存在的国家对话。

Democrats were supposed to be irrelevant after 2004 and 2024, and the GOP likewise after 2012 and 2020 – and, allegedly, 2026. Voters who want more money in their pockets and data centers nowhere near their backyards are not changing parties, and companies that plan as if they were, will be talking to a country that doesn't exist.