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如何解决胡塞武装这样的难题?How do you solve a problem like the Houthis?

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目前,沙特阿拉伯——和过去多年一样——正面临一个棘手问题:胡塞武装的移动式导弹发射装置。这些装置会袭击沙特目标或红海南部的船只,随后在遭到反击前迅速撤离。人们总是希望先击倒射箭者,而非射出的箭,但这并非易事。

At the moment, Saudi Arabia – as it has for quite a few years now – has a problem with mobile Houthi missile launchers, which mount strikes against Saudi targets, or against shipping in the southern Red Sea, and then move off before they can be counter-struck. One would always want to shoot the archer rather than the arrow, but this is not an easy thing to achieve. This is not just a problem for the Saudis.

这不仅仅是沙特阿拉伯的问题。全球经济尚未陷入全面危机,其中一个原因在于,石油可以通过沙特东西向输油管道输送至红海北部的延布港,而无需经过霍尔木兹海峡——前提是该管道未遭袭击。从延布港出发,石油可通过油轮运往全球市场。

One reason there has not been a full-blown global economic crisis is that oil can move out of the Gulf without going through the Strait of Hormuz, via the Saudis’ east-west pipeline to Yanbu in the northern Red Sea – provided the pipeline has not been struck. From Yanbu the oil can move by tanker out into the global market. But if the tanker is to head north for the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean, it must be a “Suezmax” vessel, one able to fit through the canal.

但如果油轮要北上进入苏伊士运河和地中海,就必须是“苏伊士型”(Suezmax)船只,即能够顺利通过运河的船型。苏伊士型油轮大约可装载100万桶石油,而全尺寸的超大型原油运输船(VLCC,即行业术语中的超级油轮)的载油量则超过其两倍。不过,苏伊士型油轮的运输效率不如VLCC。

Suezmax tankers can carry, say, a million barrels of oil. Full-size Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs, the industry term for supertankers) can carry more than twice as much. Suezmax tankers are not as efficient as VLCCs.

然而,若想通过延布管道运输一整船VLCC级别的石油,这艘船就必须穿越红海南端胡塞武装控制区的重重封锁。

But if you want to take a VLCC-load of oil from the Yanbu pipeline, that ship has to run the gauntlet past the Houthis at the southern end of the Red Sea.

总而言之,胡塞武装对“泪之门户”——巴布-埃尔曼德布海峡(红海南部出口)的控制,正在推高油价,并在全球范围内引发通货膨胀及相关的经济问题。但像胡塞武装这样的组织,究竟该如何应对?

In sum, Houthi control of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, the “Gate of Tears”, the southern exit from the Red Sea, is pushing up oil prices and causing inflation and related economic woes all over the world. But how do you solve a problem like the Houthis?

胡塞武装的导弹和无人机部队并非那些安安稳稳驻扎在营房或整齐排列在机场的传统目标。它们是流动的、分散的,而且几乎在发射后就能迅速隐匿于复杂地形之中——而这些地形往往遍布平民,包括城市区域。

Houthi missile and drone teams are not conventional targets sitting conveniently in barracks or lined up on an airfield. They are mobile, dispersed and capable of disappearing into difficult terrain – often urban terrain packed with civilians – almost as soon as they have fired.

试图仅靠空袭和昂贵的精确制导导弹来摧毁它们,可能会变成一场打空气的徒劳。美国“战斧”导弹和JASSM等远程精确制导导弹飞抵目标需要很长时间,且更换速度缓慢、成本高昂。更便宜的武器大多必须从目标上空的飞机上投放,这会让飞行员面临被击落和俘虏的风险——这是任何西方领导人都希望避免的,尤其是即将在美国国内参加中期选举的唐纳德·特朗普。

Trying to destroy them exclusively with air strikes and expensive precision missiles can become an exercise in punching smoke. Long-range precision missiles like the US Tomahawk and JASSM take a long time to fly in to their targets. They can be replaced only slowly and at great cost.

还有另一个选择:派遣地面部队寻找并摧毁导弹部队。这在政治和军事上都是一个危险得多的选择。但如果西方国家认真想要终结威胁,而非仅仅是控制威胁,他们可能不得不考虑一个不舒服的现实:有些目标无法从空中消除。我认为,这不应该是用正规军队占领领土:需要的是能够在敌对领土秘密行动的特种作战部队。

Cheaper weapons must mostly be released from aircraft above the target, exposing airmen to the risk of being shot down and captured: something any Western leader would wish to avoid, especially Donald Trump as he heads into the midterm elections at home. There is another option: putting boots on the ground to find and destroy the missile units. It is a far more dangerous proposition, politically as well as militarily. But if we are serious about ending the threat rather than merely managing it, Western governments may have to consider the uncomfortable reality that some targets cannot be neutralised from the air.

英国在这方面有很多可以提供的。英国特种空勤团(SAS)和特种舟艇团(SBS)在敌后行动、寻找难以捉摸的目标以及在常规部队难以发挥作用的地方发动打击方面,拥有光荣的历史。从亚丁战役到第一次海湾战争,英国特种部队展示了今天可能证明有用的那种技能。

I would argue that this should not be a matter of occupying ground with regular troops: what is wanted is special operations forces able to operate covertly in hostile territory. Britain has plenty to offer here. The SAS and SBS have a proud history of operating behind enemy lines, locating elusive targets and striking where conventional forces struggle.

在1991年海湾战争期间,SAS巡逻队在沙漠中搜寻伊拉克的“飞毛腿”导弹发射装置,试图防止萨达姆·侯赛因将其发射到以色列和联军部队,包括本人在内的目标上。装甲第1师的英国坦克车组作为联军的一部分被部署,其中包括第14/20轻骑兵团B中队——我有幸在该战争中服役于该单位。化学弹头的威胁使这次任务尤其紧迫。

From the Aden campaign to the First Gulf War, British special forces have demonstrated precisely the kind of skills that could prove relevant today. During the 1991 Gulf War, SAS patrols hunted Iraqi Scud missile launchers across the desert, seeking to prevent Saddam Hussein from firing them at Israel and coalition forces, including yours truly. British tank crews of the 1st Armoured Division were deployed as part of the coalition, including B Squadron, 14th/20th Hussars – the unit with which I had the honour to serve in that war.

技术已经改变,但根本挑战依然相同:寻找机动发射装置并将其摧毁。

The threat of chemical warheads made the mission particularly urgent.

不过可以想象,如果要求英国特种空勤团的成员们冒着生命危险去营救一个对自身战略决策后果漠不关心的美国政府,位于赫里福德郡的特种空勤团基地会作何反应。

The technology has changed, but the essential challenge remains the same: finding mobile launchers and taking them out.

对英国政府而言还有一个更深层次的问题:政府如何能指望本国最精锐的士兵为盟友执行危险任务,却任由那些曾在伊拉克、阿富汗及北爱尔兰与恐怖主义作战的退伍军人屡次被送上法庭?多年来的法律与政治纷争让这些老兵们心生疑虑:在关键时刻,这个他们曾为之效力的国家是否还会站在他们身后?

But one can imagine the response at Credenhill, the SAS’s Herefordshire home, if soldiers were asked to risk their lives at least in part to rescue an American administration seemingly oblivious to the consequences of its own strategic choices. There is a deeper question for the British Government.

我并非主张特种部队可以凌驾于法律之上。他们绝不应如此。我所主张的是:只有正规的战争法才应适用于士兵——即《日内瓦公约》,而非那些过度扩张的人权法规;同时,那些需要做出生死抉择的人应当依据证据并在具体情境下得到公正评判。

How can ministers expect our most elite soldiers to undertake dangerous operations for an ally while allowing those who fought terrorism in Iraq, Afghanistan and Northern Ireland to be dragged repeatedly through the courts? Years of legal and political battles have left veterans wondering whether the country they served will stand behind them when it matters. I am not arguing that special forces should be above the law.

尤其值得一提的是,如今是时候终止针对北爱尔兰战争退伍军人的“法律战”了。鉴于许多已知的爱尔兰共和军恐怖分子都获得了可使其免受法律追究的“豁免函”,这种做法就显得尤为恶劣。

They should not. I do argue that only the proper laws of war should apply to soldiers – the Geneva Conventions, not the various overweening forms of human-rights law – and that those making life-and-death decisions must be judged fairly, on the evidence and in context.

回到当前局势:英国特种部队此前曾在伊拉克打击受伊朗支持的威胁势力。他们的实战经验对于打击胡塞武装的支援网络或许大有裨益。

In particular it is time to end the lawfare being waged against the veterans of Northern Ireland, which is particularly egregious given the fact that many known IRA terrorists have received “letters of comfort” conferring immunity on them. Coming back to the problem of today, British special forces have operated against Iranian-backed threats in Iraq.

然而,我宁愿继续支付高昂的汽油与柴油费用,也不愿看到又一代英国军人远赴海外拼上一切,回国后却要面对多年的法律迫害。

Their experience could prove invaluable against the networks sustaining the Houthis.

唐纳德·特朗普总统或许终将意识到:对他而言最有效的武器并非造价数百万美元的导弹,而是那些深谙如何猎杀难以捉摸之敌的盟友部队的经验。问题在于:他是否明白请求这些部队协助所需付出的代价?而英国又是否有勇气在事后全力支持自己的士兵?

However, I would rather continue paying through the nose for my petrol and diesel than watch another generation of British troops risk everything abroad, only to face years of legal persecution at home. President Donald Trump may yet discover that his most effective weapons are not multi-million-dollar missiles, but the experience of an ally whose soldiers know how to hunt an elusive enemy. The question is whether he understands the price of asking for their help and whether Britain has the courage to stand behind its soldiers afterwards.