本周的美国通胀报告引发全球市场震荡,但认为它会促使美联储在本月末加息的押注正在减弱。全球债券价格出现不错的反弹,传统派发放股息的股票也同样如此。期货指向本周以温和涨幅收盘。关注我们的实时市场数据和报道。“把它扔进火里。”
This week’s hot U.S. inflation report sent a shudder through global markets, but bets that it would nudge the Federal Reserve to raise rates at the end of this month are fading. Bond prices worldwide have enjoyed a nice bounce and old-school dividend paying stocks have too. Futures point to modest gains to end the week. Follow our live markets data and coverage. “Throw it in the fire.”
法国下一任总统的主要左翼候选人提出了一项应对其失控债务的方案——要求欧洲央行直接取消近半万亿欧元的债务。
The leading left-wing candidate to be France’s next president has a proposal for tackling its runaway debt—asking the European Central Bank to just cancel nearly half a trillion euros’ worth of it.
让-吕克·梅朗雄的这一简单而诱人的想法,正合数千名在法国城市示威的民众以及数百万受益于该国不可持续社会安全网的人的心意。给他鼓劲,不是因为独创性,而是因为大胆:意大利、西班牙和希腊的政客们也曾有过类似的脑洞。
Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s seductively simple idea is music to the ears of thousands of people demonstrating in French cities and millions more who benefit from the country’s unsustainable social safety net. Give him points for audacity, not originality: Politicians in Italy, Spain and Greece have had similar brain waves.
美国人摇头叹息欧洲的挥霍无度很容易理解,但法国只是即将波及其他西方政府(包括美国)的财政危机的前沿。全球投资者都应理解为何取消债务的想法反复出现,以及它将意味着什么。
It’s tempting for Americans to shake their heads at European profligacy, but France is just the bleeding edge of a fiscal crisis approaching other Western governments, including the U.S. Investors everywhere should understand why the idea of canceling debt keeps cropping up and what it would mean.
这是阻力最小的路径。无需增税或削减福利,那为何不抹掉央行持有的一些债券呢?从技术上说,政府本来就欠自己这笔钱。
It’s the path of least resistance. No taxes have to be raised or benefits cut, so why not erase some bonds held by a central bank? It’s technically money that the government owes itself anyway.
因为天下没有免费的午餐。评论员们常说,当美联储或其他央行购买债券时是在“印钞票”,但实际上并非如此。只有当临时创建的银行准备金变成永久性时,才会真正转化为印钞。
Because nothing is free. Pundits often say that the Fed or other central banks are “printing money” when they buy bonds. They actually aren’t. It would turn into money printing if the temporary bank reserves created became permanent.
由此产生的通胀将对储蓄者不利,也会削弱投资者对任何尝试此举的政府再次贷款的信心。更重要的是,梅朗雄式的想法并非仅属于社会主义者甚至欧洲人所独有。
The resulting inflation would be bad for savers. It would also erode investors’ trust in lending again to any government that tried it. What’s more, ideas like Mélenchon’s aren’t the sole province of Socialists or even Europeans.
考虑到这个想法看似简单,这不应该令人惊讶。2011年,共和党总统候选人罗恩·保罗通过《债务危机解决法案》提出了这一想法。随后,2016年,时任候选人唐纳德·特朗普曾设想就国家债务达成“交易”,但很快就收回了话头。“我爱债务。我喜欢玩弄它。”
That shouldn’t come as a surprise given the idea’s seeming simplicity. Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul proposed it via the Debt Crisis Resolution Act in 2011. Then candidate Donald Trump mused in 2016 about making “a deal” on the national debt before quickly backtracking. “I love debt. I love playing with it.”
在通胀高企时期,对美联储降息的政治压力也有助于改善山姆大叔的财政状况,因为这会使“真实的”——即通胀调整后的成本降低。这种缓慢的消耗,即所谓的财政主导,比直接焚烧债券争议性小,但对储户和消费者的影响可能相同。
Political pressure on the Fed to lower rates at a time of high inflation also can help Uncle Sam’s finances because it makes the “real,” inflation-adjusted cost lower. That slow burn, so-called fiscal dominance, is less-controversial than just torching bonds, but it can have the same effect on savers and consumers.
尤其是在最近债券收益率和联邦利息成本飙升,以及对短期借款依赖增加之后,财政部希望美联储保持其控制范围内的利率低位。当然,货币政策应当保持政治独立。
Especially after the recent jump in bond yields and federal interest costs—and increasing dependence on short-term borrowing—the Treasury would love for the Fed to keep rates it controls low. Monetary policy is supposed to be politically independent, of course.
与法国不同,美国更容易操纵这种关系,因为法国不再拥有自己的货币。欧元区最大的借款国需要谨慎行事,因为实际上取消债券也会惩罚其他许多国家的储户。他们的诱惑相似,但美国政客通常知道不能把内心的想法说出口。
Fudging that relationship is easier for the U.S. than France, which no longer has its own currency. The eurozone’s biggest borrower needs to tread a delicate political path because actually canceling bonds would punish savers in many other countries too. Their temptations are similar, but American politicians usually know not to say the quiet part out loud.
CoreWeave:由于昨日的反弹证明只是短暂的,该计算服务提供商的股票在盘前交易中下跌4%。本周股价承压,因为投资者担心更高的利率将如何影响这家高负债公司。
CoreWeave: Shares of the compute provider fell 4% premarket as yesterday’s rebound proves short-lived. The stock has come under pressure this week as investors fret over how higher interest rates will impact the highly-indebted company.
特斯拉:电动汽车制造商的股票在盘前交易中上涨近5%。特斯拉昨日揭晓了备受期待的第二代Roadster,该公司将其描述为世界上首款飞行汽车。其火箭技术支撑该车辆的SpaceX股票也在盘前交易中上涨。
Tesla: Shares of the EV maker climbed nearly 5% premarket. Tesla yesterday revealed its long-awaited second-generation Roadster, which it describes as the world’s first flying car. Shares of SpaceX, whose rocket technology underpins the vehicle, also rose premarket.
J.B. Hunt:该物流公司股票在盘前交易中下跌1.3%。该公司报告称,最新季度的利润和收入均超过了华尔街的预期,但警告称,更高的燃油价格和其他成本正在对业务造成压力。
J.B. Hunt: Shares fell 1.3% premarket. The logistics company reported profit and revenue that topped Wall Street’s expectations in the latest quarter, but warned higher fuel prices and other costs are weighing on the business.
Alcoa:铝生产商报告称其最新季度利润和收入增长,盘前股价上涨超过2%。
Alcoa: Shares rose more than 2% premarket after the aluminum producer reported higher profit and revenue in its latest quarter.
AI代理正在介入企业与客户之间的关系。这可能对消费者和开发这些代理的科技公司有利,但对许多被夹在中间的电子商务企业构成挑战。
AI agents are inserting themselves into relationships between businesses and customers. That could be a win for consumers and the tech companies behind the agents, but it poses challenges for many e-commerce players caught in the middle.
2001年这一天,安然因与投资贬值相关的季度亏损达6.18亿美元而令投资者震惊。在与分析师的通话中,董事长兼首席执行官肯尼斯·莱还透露,公司已将股东权益削减12亿美元,意味着安然突然价值大幅下降。该公司不到两个月后便申请了破产保护。
On this day in 2001, Enron surprised investors by reporting a $618 million quarterly loss connected with write-downs of soured investments. In a call with analysts, Chairman and Chief Executive Kenneth Lay also divulged that the company had cut its shareholder equity by $1.2 billion, meaning Enron was suddenly worth a lot less money. The company filed for bankruptcy less than two months later.
华尔街日报|买方:基于我们对成本、保障特性及其他因素的分析,查看最佳汽车保险公司。
WSJ | Buy Side: See the best car insurance companies based on our analysis of costs, coverage features and more.
商业与金融长期吸引着我。在撰写此通讯之前,我曾十年担任《华尔街日报》“街头耳语”团队编辑,撰写过两本投资书籍,并在一家全球投资银行管理过一支股票分析师团队。
Business and finance have fascinated me for a long time. Before writing this newsletter, I edited The Wall Street Journal’s Heard on the Street team for a decade, wrote two investment books and managed a team of stock analysts at a global investment bank.
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