
您在竞选路上听到的很多内容纯属不实,甚至有点荒唐可笑。唐纳德·特朗普总统几乎不是唯一的说谎者。
Much of what you’re hearing on the campaign trail is flatly untrue, if not a tad preposterous. President Donald Trump is hardly the lone prevaricator.
民主党候选人正在许下与分裂政府现实完全脱节的承诺。而随着特朗普的白宫任期将持续到2029年初,这种分裂局面将继续存在,即便共和党在即将到来的中期选举中在国会失去全部席位。把密歇根州民主党参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛耶德单独挑出来批评并不完全公平,他的“全民医保”口号反映了草根自由派的幻想;许多候选人正在许下类似的承诺。
Democratic candidates are making promises completely divorced from the realities of divided government. And with Trump’s White House stay reserved through early 2029, divided it shall remain, even if Republicans are swept from power in Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. It’s not entirely fair to single out Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, whose “Medicare for All” slogan reflects the fantasies of grassroots liberals; many candidates are making similar promises.
但根本没有可行的途径来制定、更不用说通过满足他医疗承诺的联邦立法——甚至包括“让金钱远离政治”这一承诺。即便众议院的民主党多数派能够动员通过议程投票,且民主党控制参议院,共和党也将使用阻挠议事直接击毙任何直接挑战其党内核心原则的法案,甚至可能得到两党协助的支持。而另一件不会改变的事情是什么?
But there’s simply no viable path to enactment, never mind passage, of federal legislation fulfilling his healthcare commitment — or this one: to “get money out of politics.”Even if a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives musters the floor votes and Democrats control the Senate, Republicans would filibuster to death any bills directly challenging their party’s key tenets, possibly with bipartisan assistance. And guess what else won’t change?
参议院克服阻挠议事所需的60票超多数门槛——以及由此通过大多数立法的门槛。这是一种强制妥协的议会策略。
The 60-vote, supermajority threshold required to quash a filibuster — and clear most legislation — in the Senate. It’s a parliamentary tactic that enforces compromise.
还有那些“废除ICE”的民主党人,尤其是但不仅限于左翼人士和社会主义者。他们誓言要拆解移民和海关执法局。遏制导致死亡——甚至美国公民死亡——的过度激进手段的愿望是可以理解的。但拆解ICE不过是童话故事罢了。别说共和党人;民主党内部也存在分歧。得克萨斯州民主党参议员候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科反对废除ICE。他主张改革而非废除。
Then there are the “abolish ICE” Democrats, especially but not limited to left-wingers and socialists. They’re vowing to dismantle the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. The desire to rein in overzealous tactics that have resulted in killings — even of US citizens — is understandable. But dismantling ICE is the stuff of fairy tales. Forget Republicans; Democrats are divided. James Talarico, Texas Democrats’ Senate nominee, opposes abolishing ICE. He favors reform instead.
税收上调针对企业和所谓的富人?祝你好运。特朗普和国会共和党人不太可能屈服,基本上废除总统在其第一个和第二个任期内签署成为法律的减税措施,就像奥巴马总统和民主党人在2010年中期选举惨败后被迫废除《平价医疗法案》(即奥巴马医改)时一样。这种不切实际(且至今未实现)的竞选承诺是名人堂级别的。但特朗普一如既往地夸张,拒绝被超越。
And tax hikes on corporations and the so-called wealthy? Good luck with that. Trump and congressional Republicans are no more likely to cave and essentially repeal tax reductions signed into law during the president’s first and second terms than were President Barack Obama and the Democrats when pressured to undo the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) after 2010’s midterm blowout. That unrealistic (and still unrealized) campaign promise is a hall-of-famer. But Trump, melodramatic as ever, refuses to be outdone.
随着公共和民意调查显示民主党有望夺回众议院,甚至可能夺回曾经遥不可及的参议院,总统在警告称如果共和党被赶下台,国家将面临灾难时,已经达到了新的尖锐程度。
With public and private polls showing Democrats poised to flip the House, and possibly the once-out-of-reach Senate, the president has hit a new level of shrill in his warnings that the country would face calamity if Republicans are thrown out.
我们先放下他那荒唐的宣言——即如果他的党在11月3日被横扫,他将成为有史以来最后一位共和党总统。这是典型的特朗普式夸张。我们来看看他本月在田纳西州的竞选集会上的这些言论:“如果民主党获胜,你们将面临1929年式的经济大萧条。”还有,他在俄亥俄州十月份类似活动中的言论,当时特朗普认为民主党占多数将“掠夺你们的财富,将税收增加5万亿美元”,并“毁掉你们的边界”,以及“给2500万非法移民特赦”。这些说法背后的谬误值得关注。
Let’s set aside his absurd declaration that he would be the last Republican president — ever — should his party get swept on Nov. 3. That’s typical Trumpian hyperbole. Let’s instead address these comments, from a campaign rally this month in Tennessee: “If the Democrats win, you will have a 1929-style, economic depression.”And this, from a similar October event in Ohio, during which Trump argued that Democratic majorities would “loot your wealth, raise your taxes by $5 trillion” and “annihilate your borders” and “give 25 million illegal aliens amnesty.”The fallacies underlying these claims deserve attention.
民主党无疑希望在选举第二天早上醒来,拥有特朗普希望共和党选民恐惧其对手所拥有的那种权力。但总统的论点有一个特别致命的缺陷:他本人。
Democrats would no doubt love to wake up the day after the election with the sort of power Trump wants Republican voters to fear their opponents will have. But the president’s argument has a particular fatal flaw: him.
行政部门的权力十分广泛 — — 包括对外关系和军事;关税和国际贸易;有时还包括对国会拨款的使用。后者在特朗普时期被放大,他主张拥有宪法赋予立法机关的权力。他对进口商品加征关税,重新安排国会拨款,并试图主导投票规则 — — 这一切都未获得国会山的批准。别忘了特朗普的否决笔。这些情况在1月3日不会改变,届时大约两周前选出的第120届国会将宣誓就职。当然,还有否决权的推翻。
The powers of the executive branch are vast — over foreign relations and the military; tariffs and international trade; and sometimes, the application of congressionally appropriated spending. The latter has been magnified under Trump, who has asserted authority the Constitution reserves for the legislative branch. He’s slapped tariffs on imports, reprogrammed congressional spending and attempted to dictate voting regulation — all without obtaining Capitol Hill’s approval. And don’t forget Trump’s veto pen. None of that changes on Jan. 3, when the 120th Congress, elected in roughly two weeks, is sworn in. There is, of course, the veto override.
但国会议员 — — 包括民主党人和共和党人 — — 对挑战自己所属政党的总统持抵触态度,即使这样做是维护其宪法特权所必需的。因此,如果民主党控制国会两院,并在一些共和党人的(不太可能的)帮助下,成功将他们的社会主义宣言递交到特朗普办公桌上,他所需要做的只是否决它。如果总统否决了一些有用的东西,比如阻止他忽视或篡夺国会权力的立法,那么共和党人几乎没有可能为民主党人提供足够的支持,以维持国会三分之二多数票推翻否决。
But members of Congress — both Democrats and Republicans — are allergic to challenging presidents of their own party, including in instances where doing so is necessary to preserve their constitutional prerogatives. So, should Democrats command both chambers of Congress, and with the (unlikely) help of some Republicans, manage to drop their socialist manifesto on Trump’s desk, all he’d have to do is veto it. In the event the president vetoes something useful, like legislation preventing him from ignoring or usurping congressional authority, there’s virtually zero chance Republicans provide Democrats with anywhere near enough support to sustain a two-thirds vote of Congress to override.
事实上,这就是2018年中期选举后民主党夺回众议院之后发生的事情。在随后的两年里,国会未能推翻特朗普的10次否决中的除一次以外的所有否决,唯一成功的推翻发生在2020年底,彼时总统已在连任选举中败给乔·拜登。中期选举中众议院和参议院的结果仍然具有重要意义。
Indeed, that’s what happened after Democrats captured the House in the 2018 midterms. Over the following two years, Congress failed to override all but one of Trump’s 10 vetoes, with the single successful override coming in late 2020, after the president had lost reelection to Joe Biden. The outcomes of midterm House and Senate contests are still consequential.
民主党夺取国会控制权将剥夺特朗普在其第二个总统任期内一直享有的共和党橡皮图章。白宫将不得不在一些关键事项上与民主党进行谈判,尽管这一过程可能令人不快。政府支出水平值得关注,医疗保健和社会安全网同样如此;农业优先事项以及国防政策的某些方面也需考虑。此外,通过掌握有影响力的国会委员会的议事权所带来的传唤权和调查能力也不容小觑,这既可能震慑,也可能揭露特朗普政府的不当行为。
A Democratic takeover would deprive Trump of the Republican rubber-stamp he’s enjoyed so far in Congress during his second presidency. The White House would have to negotiate with Democrats on some key matters, begrudging as the exercise might be. Government spending levels come to mind, so do health care and the social safety net; agriculture priorities and some aspects of defense policy. The subpoena power and investigatory muscle that comes from wielding gavels on influential congressional committees isn’t anything to downplay, either, and could both discourage and uncover Trump administration malfeasance.
这可能没有彻底改革美国竞选财政制度那样吸引人,也没有完全改革健康保险系统那样引人注目——或者让比你更富有人承担更高税单那样直接。而且,它可能也没有“激进疯狂的民主党人”将美国变成集体主义古拉格、永久奴役共和党人并让朝鲜领导人金正恩羡慕不已那样可怕。但我对本次中期选举重要性的看法之所以有价值,正是因为它是事实。也许如果两个政党的竞选纲领植根于准确性和可行之艺,选民在不可避免地未能兑现承诺时就不会如此失望。
That may not be as sexy as gutting the campaign finance regime in America or completely overhauling the health insurance system — or sticking people wealthier than you with a bigger tax bill. And it may not be as scary as the prospect of “radical lunatic Dumocrats” transforming the US into a collectivist gulag that would forever subjugate Republicans and make North Korea’s Kim Jong Un jealous. But my version of why this midterm election is important has the benefit of being true. Maybe if the two political parties campaigned on visions rooted in accuracy and the art of the possible, voters wouldn’t be so disappointed when they inevitably failed to deliver.
那么,也许,只是也许,选民会对他们如今同样持低评价的民主党和共和党有更好的看法。
And then maybe, just maybe, voters would think better of the Democratic and Republican parties they now hold in equally low esteem.