俄亥俄州扬斯敦 — 约翰·博奇耶里在俄亥俄州东北部的政治生涯，是民主党衰落的一个缩影，尤其是在州议会层面。
YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio — John Boccieri’s tour through northeast Ohio politics is a microcosm of the Democratic Party’s decline, especially in state legislatures.
2008年，博奇耶里放弃俄亥俄州参议员席位，成功翻转了一个共和党把持的联邦众议院席位。他在2010年共和党大胜的浪潮中失去了该席位，这使共和党掌控了重新划分选区的权力，导致他原本的选区变得遥不可及。2015年，民主党任命他担任一个安全的州众议员席位，但他于2018年放弃该席位竞选州参议员。然而他在那场竞选中失利，随后重返飞行员岗位工作。
In 2008, Boccieri left his seat in the Ohio state Senate to flip a Republican-held House seat. He lost it in the 2010 GOP wave, which gave the party control over redistricting and put his old district out of reach. Democrats appointed him to a safe state House seat in 2015, though he left it to run for state Senate in 2018. But he lost that race, and went back to work as a pilot.
今年，博奇耶里决定再次角逐州众议员席位。他押注共和党的连胜势头无法在特朗普的第二个中期选举中延续，当时维韦克·拉马斯瓦米领衔共和党在俄亥俄州的竞选名单。
This year, Boccieri decided to try again for a seat in the state house. He bet that Republicans’ winning streak couldn’t survive a second Trump midterm, with Vivek Ramaswamy leading their Ohio ticket.
“我竞选的这个席位仍然经过精心杰利蝾螈划分，”他上周对Semafor表示。“但我们需要有人在艾米·阿克顿当选州长时帮助她，反击不受监管、不受约束的数据中心，并确保州议会的腐败画上句号。”博奇耶里如今体现了民主党政治的一股新趋势：在中期选举前的最后几周，该党试图说服捐助者，“蓝色浪潮”蔓延范围可能比预期更广——前提是他们的资金不全花在少数几场联邦众议院和参议院竞选上。
“The seat that I’m running in is still gerrymandered,” he told Semafor last week. “But we need someone who’s going to help Amy Acton, when she’s the governor, to push back on unregulated, unchecked data centers, and make sure that the state house corruption ends.”Boccieri now exemplifies a new trend in Democratic politics: In the final weeks before the midterms, the party is trying to convince its donors that a “blue wave” could spread even farther — if their money isn’t all spent on a handful of House and Senate races.
“民主党在州议会层面总是处于这种‘本可以、本该、早该’的境地，”专注于民主党州立法竞选支出的非营利组织“前进多数派”首席执行官莱斯利·马特斯表示。该组织已警告捐助者，在双方重点争夺的州级竞选中，共和党仍处于领先地位。
“Democrats are always in this spot of this ‘coulda, woulda, shoulda’ with state legislatures,” said Leslie Martes, the CEO of Forward Majority, a nonprofit that spends on Democratic state legislative campaigns. The group has warned donors that Republicans are still ahead in both parties’ top target races at the state level.
“人们认为这些领衔候选人会带动整张选票，但事实并非如此，”马特斯解释道。“2008年我在北卡罗来纳州工作，当时贝拉克·奥巴马在该州获胜，但我们在罗利一个席位也没赢下。要提高我们州立法机构候选人的知名度，还有大量工作要做。”去年，争夺州立法机构控制权的斗争愈演愈烈，此前总统唐纳德·特朗普敦促共和党在他们控制的各州重绘国会选区地图，以尽可能消除民主党在众议院的席位。
“There’s this idea that these top-of-the-ticket candidates are going to lift the whole ticket, but that’s not the case,” Martes explained. “I worked in North Carolina in 2008, when Barack Obama was winning the state, and we didn’t pick up a single seat in Raleigh. There’s a lot of work to increase the name ID of our candidates at the state legislative level.”The fight to control state legislatures intensified last year, after President Donald Trump urged Republicans to draw new congressional maps in the states they control that eliminate as many Democratic House seats as possible.
两党策略师表示，这种重划选区的争夺改变了筹款人对待州立法机构竞选捐款的方式——这些竞选很少是最大政治资金提供者首选的捐款去向。共和党州领导委员会发言人梅森·迪帕尔马表示，该组织开始警告捐款人，如果民主党在2026年横扫州级选举，可能会实施他们自己的杰利蝾螈式划区。
Strategists in both parties said that this redistricting scramble has changed how donors are being approached for state legislative races — rarely the first places where the largest political funders send their cash. Mason Di Palma, a spokesman for the Republican State Leadership Committee, said that his group began warning donors that Democrats could force their own gerrymanders if they swept state-level races in 2026.
实际上，这意味着如果民主党能在明尼苏达州扩大控制优势、夺取威斯康星州众议院控制权、并翻转宾夕法尼亚州参议院控制权，他们将获得在各州删除共和党选区的权力。
In practice, that meant that if Democrats could expand their control in Minnesota, capture Wisconsin’s Assembly, and flip Pennsylvania’s state Senate, they would gain the power to delete GOP districts in each state.
“如果民主党拿下‘三权合一’，什么能阻止他们重绘地图？”迪帕尔马说。“你的钱在州立法机构竞选中能发挥更大作用。”两党都加紧了对下层选票竞选的候选人招募，民主党受益于一种整体信心，认为他们将在中期选举中取得进展。在威斯康星州，他们看到了自2010年以来首次实现“三权合一”的机会，得益于新地图；在宾夕法尼亚州，民主党州长乔什·夏皮罗的声望已在助力他们逐步向参议院控制权迈进。
“If Dems get trifectas, what will stop them from redrawing maps?” said Di Palma. “Your dollar goes further in state legislative races.”Both parties have stepped up their recruiting for downballot races, with Democrats benefiting from an overall confidence that they’d make gains in the midterms. In Wisconsin they spotted a chance for their first trifecta since 2010 thanks to new maps; in Pennsylvania, the popularity of Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro was already helping them inch toward Senate control.
重划选区正在重塑许多州的政治前景，党派控制的可能性分为三类。
Redistricting is reshaping the political outlook in many states, with the possibilities for partisan control divided into three categories.
首先，有些州两党都认为无法打破对方的“三权独揽”局面：共和党在阿肯色州、田纳西州和印第安纳州毫无风险；民主党则不担心在纽约州、伊利诺伊州和加利福尼亚州失去州长职位或州议会控制权。
First, there are states where neither party thinks that they can break the governing trifecta: Republicans are at no risk in Arkansas, Tennessee, or Indiana; Democrats are not worried about losing either the governor’s office or the state legislature in New York, Illinois, and California.
“死区”包括在非大选年举行州立法机构选举的地方：路易斯安那州、密西西比州、新泽西州和弗吉尼亚州。
The dead zone includes places where state legislative elections are held in off-years: Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.
本周期拥有重量级立法机构争夺战的下一批州，呈现一方试图打破对方“三权独揽”，或至少终结执政党拥有的、令其更容易强行通过新选区地图的超级多数席位的局面。
The next crop of states with marquee legislative fights this cycle feature one party that’s trying to break a governing trifecta, or at least end a supermajority that makes it easier for the party in power to force new maps through.
这组州包括内布拉斯加州，那里“单一议院”中的共和党距离取消奥马哈所在的第2国会选区总统选举人票仅一票之遥。俄亥俄州也在其中——民主党认为无法翻转该州议会，但仍可能让阿克顿当选州长，并选出足够多的议员以维持她的否决权。
This group includes Nebraska, where Republicans in the “unicam” have been a vote away from eliminating the presidential electoral vote for Omaha’s 2nd Congressional District. Ohio, where Democrats don’t think they can flip the state legislature, is also in this batch — it could still make Acton governor and elect enough legislators to sustain her vetoes.
阿克顿上周对 Semafor 表示：“我很兴奋，我们可能在本次选举中打破超级多数。”
“I’m very excited that we may break the supermajority in this election,” Acton told Semafor last week.
最后，有些州一方可能赢得“三权独揽”，有时甚至能在2027年拥有绘制新地图的权力。威斯康星州和宾夕法尼亚州位居民主党名单榜首。亚利桑那州也在列——该党距离控制权仅几个席位之遥；而共和党表示，若他们自己赢得“三权独揽”，将重新审视该州的重划选区委员会。
Finally, there are states where one party could win a trifecta, sometimes in places where they’d have the ability to draw new maps in 2027. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania top that list for Democrats. It also includes Arizona, where the party is a few seats away from control — and where Republicans have said they’d use a trifecta of their own to revisit the state’s redistricting commission.
流入州立法机构竞选的总资金与共和党为守住得克萨斯州参议员席位所花费的巨资相比相形见绌。但“州项目组”（The States Project）——与“前进多数派”（Forward Majority）一样，旨在助民主党赢得更多议会——上月宣布筹得1亿美元；共和党州领导委员会（RSLC）则考虑在其目标州投入“5200万美元以上”。
The total money heading into state legislative campaigns pales in comparison to what Republicans have spent to hold Texas’ Senate seat. But the States Project — which, like Forward Majority, was created to help Democrats win more legislatures — announced a $100 million haul last month; the RSLC is looking at spending “north of $52 million” on its targets.
在关键州，民主党人表示他们仍处于劣势；在威斯康星州，当地共和党捐助者帮助摇摆选区的共和党州众议员花费了1130万美元，而民主党仅花费760万美元。
In key states, Democrats say that they remain outgunned; in Wisconsin, local GOP donors have helped swing-seat Republicans in the Assembly spend $11.3 million, compared with $7.6 million for Democrats.
“右翼在这方面已经耕耘了50多年，”The States Project执行董事曼达拉·梅耶斯说。“他们拥有根深蒂固的优势，共和党巨额捐助者仍在向个别竞选注资数百万美元。”现代州议会争夺战的故事，始于共和党在2010年的突破，随后是民主党16年来试图夺回一切能夺回的东西。他们从诉讼和投票倡议入手；在密歇根州、弗吉尼亚州和科罗拉多州，他们建立了党派色彩较淡的重划选区程序，使这两个州保持了竞争性，而非倾向某一党派。
“The right wing has been at this for more than 50 years,” said Mandara Meyers, the States Project’s executive director. “They have entrenched advantages and GOP megadonors are still pouring millions into individual races.”The story of modern state legislature battles is a Republican breakthrough in 2010, followed by 16 years of Democrats trying to claw back whatever they could. They started with lawsuits and ballot measures; in Michigan, Virginia, and Colorado, they created less partisan redistricting processes that kept both states competitive, not slanted toward one party.
特朗普在全国范围内的重划选区推动迅速改变了他们的策略，每两年面临新选区地图的威胁帮助两党为2026年筹集了更多资金。Forward Majority要求最后注资200万至500万美元以避免被对手在开支上超过，此前共和党捐助者通过该党其他政治行动委员会为关键的共和党州议会竞选提供了资金。
Trump’s national redistricting push quickly changed their strategy, and the threat of new maps every two years helped both parties raise more money for 2026. Forward Majority’s ask for a final $2-5 million to avoid being outspent came after Republican donors to the party’s other PACs funded the key GOP state legislative campaigns.
人们私下议论特朗普的低支持率是否能像2010年奥巴马拖累其党那样重创共和党。现在的开支情况完全不同：民主党捐助者发誓永不再忽视州级竞选，而共和党捐助者从未停止对州级竞选的投入。民主党仍不确定能否在共和党绘制选区地图已有10年、并自信这些选民已永久重组的非城市、非郊区地区实现突破。
There’s table talk about whether Trump’s low approval ratings can hurt his party as much as Obama hurt his party’s in 2010. The spending picture is completely different now: Democratic donors pledged never to neglect state-level races again, and Republican donors never stopped investing in them. Democrats are still not sure whether they can break through in the sorts of non-urban, non-suburban areas where Republicans have been drawing maps for 10 years, confident that these voters are permanently realigned.