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美联储打喷嚏,新兴市场却尚未感冒Fed sneezes, but emerging markets aren't catching a cold yet

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新兴市场已发展出更强的免疫系统。美国债务动态正在恶化,美联储已开始加息,但新兴市场似乎无需跟进。美国打了喷嚏,但新兴市场并未因此染上惯常的感冒。

Emerging markets have developed stronger immune systems. US debt dynamics are deteriorating and the Federal Reserve has started hiking interest rates, yet EM appears under no pressure to follow suit. The US has sneezed, but EM isn't catching the proverbial cold.

历史上,当美联储开始收紧政策时,新兴经济体往往被迫跟进加息,即使其国内经济不足以证明此举合理,原因在于货币担忧和债务动态。这催生了另一个市场陈词滥调:美联储是世界的中央银行。

Historically, when the Fed starts tightening policy, emerging economies are forced to hike as well, even if their domestic economies aren't strong enough to warrant it, due to currency concerns and debt dynamics. This has given rise to another market cliche: the Fed is central banker to the world.

但今年新兴经济体出人意料的强劲经济增长、更稳健的财政基本面,以及相对较高的利率和债券收益率,正在为新兴市场央行提供一定的灵活性。这可能使它们明年开始降息,或者至少,能让它们在美联储收紧政策时不必完全跟随。利率缓冲新兴市场——如同其发达市场同行一样——目前面临着源于地缘政治冲突、贸易摩擦、能源价格冲击以及人工智能泡沫担忧的诸多风险。

But surprisingly resilient economic growth across emerging economies this year, sturdier fiscal fundamentals, and relatively high interest rates and bond yields are offering EM central banks a degree of flexibility. That could allow them to start cutting rates in the next year, or, at the very least, enable them not to follow the Fed in lockstep as it tightens.RATE BUFFEREmerging markets - like their developed peers - are currently beset by a host of risks stemming from geopolitical strife, trade frictions, the energy price shock, and AI bubble fears.

但尽管一些新兴市场国家尤其脆弱,要么面临持续高企的能源价格,要么面临人工智能交易突然、无序地退出,快速收紧货币政策的威胁大多不存在。

But even though some EM countries are particularly vulnerable, either to persistently high energy prices or a sudden, disorderly unwind of the AI trade, the threat of rapidly tightening monetary policy is mostly absent.

这很大程度上是因为新兴市场大部分地区的政策利率已经处于高位。据State Street称,截至9月底,新兴市场10年期债券的加权平均收益率接近6.45%,为五年来的最高点。与此同时,新兴市场平均实际收益率(通胀调整后)也处于历史高位,接近3%。

高企的政策利率已帮助恢复新兴市场央行的信誉,支撑汇率,并创造实际利率缓冲。

This is largely because policy rates are already elevated across much of EM. The weighted average 10-year emerging bond yield at the end of September was around its highest point in five years at nearly 6.45%, according to State Street. Average inflation-adjusted EM yields, meanwhile, are also historically high, close to 3%.Lofty policy rates have helped restore EM central bank credibility, support exchange rates, and create a real rate buffer.

美国银行策略师表示,新兴市场利率曲线前端的利率已大幅超调,以至于明年隐含的政策利率将在除中国以外的所有主要新兴经济体中进入紧缩区域。道富策略师本月早些时候写道,普遍收紧似乎不太可能。虽然新兴市场看起来出奇地平稳、强劲且有吸引力——印尼等一些显著例外除外——但其发达市场同行则不能这么说。

Bank of America strategists say EM rates at the front end of the curve have materially overshot to such an extent that implied policy rates next year will be in restrictive territory in all major emerging economies except China. Widespread tightening seems unlikely, State Street strategists wrote earlier this month. While EMs look surprisingly calm, robust, and attractive - with some notable exceptions like Indonesia - the same cannot be said of their developed-market peers.

虽然许多新兴国家似乎正在加强其经济基本面,但投资者对美国、日本、大部分欧元区和英国财政轨迹的担忧,已使工业化世界各地的收益率升至数十年来的最高水平。引起兴趣投资者正相应地进行部署。摩根大通上周在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织/世界银行会议期间对投资者的一项调查显示,33%的人偏好新兴市场股票,而26%的人偏好发达市场股票。

While many emerging countries appear to be strengthening their economic fundamentals, investors' concern over the fiscal trajectory in the US, Japan, much of the euro zone, and the UK has sent yields across the industrialized world to the highest in decades.PIQUE INTERESTInvestors are positioning accordingly. A JPMorgan survey of investors at the International Monetary Fund/World Bank meetings in Bangkok last week showed that 33% favor EM stocks, compared with 26% who prefer developed market equities.

美国银行最新的基金经理调查显示,受访者中净34%的人超配新兴市场股票,略低于9月份的38%,但远非看跌。

Bank of America's latest fund manager survey shows that a net 34% of those polled are overweight in EM stocks, down slightly from 38% in September, but hardly bearish.

投资者对新兴市场是否过于乐观?也许如此。做多新兴市场股票的头寸是美国银行调查中最拥挤的交易之一,表明还有很大空间进一步减仓。

Could investors be too optimistic about EM? Perhaps. The long EM equities position is one of the most crowded trades in BofA's survey, suggesting there is still plenty of room for it to be trimmed further.

当然,新兴市场债券收益率更高,是因为新兴市场债务仍比发达市场产品更具风险,尤其是传统上被视为无风险的美国国债。但值得注意的是,根据iShares新兴市场债券和国债ETF的基准,新兴市场债券的已实现波动率在过去几年中一直低于国债。

Of course, EM bond yields are higher because EM debt is still a riskier proposition than developed market offerings, especially traditionally risk-free US Treasuries. But it is notable that realized volatility in EM bonds has been lower than that of Treasuries for a few years, according to iShares benchmark EM bond and Treasuries ETFs.

可以肯定的是,新兴经济体的债务负担正在上升,与高度负债的发达经济体之间的差距正在缩小。但新兴市场平均债务与GDP比率仍似乎可控。

To be sure, emerging economies' debt burden is rising, narrowing the gap with highly indebted advanced economies. But the average EM debt-to-GDP ratio still appears manageable.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测,今年新兴市场经济体的整体债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比为77.2%,五年后将升至86.2%;相比之下,发达经济体今年的这一比率预测为108.2%,五年后将升至114.8%。尽管新兴市场国家的债务与GDP风险阈值较低,因为这些经济体通常缺乏韧性,但鲜有警报拉响。事实上,新兴市场债务的上升相当缓慢,表明政策制定者决心将其控制在可控范围内。

The IMF projects an overall EM debt-to-GDP ratio this year of 77.2%, rising to 86.2% in five years, compared with forecasts for advanced economies of 108.2% this year, rising to 114.8%.While the debt-to-GDP risk threshold in EM countries is lower because these economies are typically less resilient, few alarm bells are being rung. Indeed, the rise in EM debt has been quite gradual, suggesting policymakers are determined to keep it under control.NOT A MONOLITHRising Fed rates and US market turbulence will always affect EM economies, especially those carrying more dollar-denominated debt.

并非铁板一块美联储加息和美国市场动荡始终会影响新兴市场经济体,尤其是那些背负较多美元计价债务的经济体。而且,总会有一些新兴市场特有的困境案例,就像我们目前在印度尼西亚看到的那样。但此类事件通常与更广泛的新兴市场叙事关系不大。剔除印度尼西亚实际上可能会使新兴市场股票指数对投资者更具吸引力。

And there will always be idiosyncratic EM distress stories, like we're currently seeing in Indonesia. But events like this typically bear little relation to the broader emerging market narrative. Removing Indonesia could actually make EM equity indices more attractive to investors.

同样重要的是要记住,新兴市场范围广泛,各经济体之间差异巨大。在一些核心通胀相对较低且预期稳固的新兴市场国家,如巴西和墨西哥,政策制定者正在降息;而在另一些国家,如南非和韩国,则在加息以抵消货币疲软或通胀。还有一些国家可能倾向于保留政策选择权。

It's also important to remember that the EM universe is wide, and the differences between economies are vast. Policymakers in some EM countries where core inflation is relatively low and expectations are anchored, like Brazil and Mexico, are cutting rates, and some, like South Africa and South Korea, are raising them to offset currency weakness or inflation. Others may prefer to keep their options open.

但美联储似乎不再像过去那样主导新兴市场的节奏,如果上周巴克莱银行在曼谷举办的新兴市场大会出席人数创纪录是个迹象的话,这对投资者来说可是天籁之音。

But the Fed doesn't appear to be calling the EM tune like it used to, and if the record attendance at Barclays' EM Conference in Bangkok last week is any guide, that's music to investors' ears.

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