上周，奈飞（Netflix）在好莱坞展开了一轮令人想起昆汀·塔伦蒂诺（Quentin Tarantino）电影的大清洗。这家流媒体巨头解雇了约6%的员工，这是自2022年以来规模最大的一轮裁员，并清洗了一些最高层的创意高管。毫无疑问，此举旨在缓解投资者对热门节目匮乏影响其营收的担忧。然而，正如昆汀的电影那样，剧情变得愈发复杂。
Last week Netflix unleashed a round of bloodletting in Hollywood reminiscent of a Quentin Tarantino film. The streaming giant fired about 6% of its staff, the biggest round of lay-offs since 2022, and purged some of its most senior creative executives. The aim, no doubt, was to assuage investors’ concerns about the effect of a drought of hit shows on its revenue. But alas, à la Tarantino, the plot thickens.
其10月20日发布的季度财报显示了奈飞当前的低迷状态。该公司报告称，截至9月份的季度里，同比增长率为11.8%，并预测在今年最后三个月中，这一数字将降至11.5%，低于2025年同期的17.6%（见图表）。该消息导致奈飞股价下跌。在过去一年里，其市值已经缩水了近一半。
Its quarterly results on October 20th showed what a funk Netflix is in. The company reported year-on-year revenue growth of 11.8% in the quarter ending in September, and forecast that in the final three months of the year the figure would fall to 11.5%, down from 17.6% in the same period in 2025 (see chart). The news sent Netflix’s shares sliding. Its market value has fallen by almost half in the past year.A company that once looked so unstoppable that it was valued as a tech firm now disappoints shareholders with the regularity of a stodgy media company.
这家曾因势不可挡而被估值为科技公司的企业，如今却像一家沉闷的传统媒体公司那样，频频让股东失望。一些人甚至怀疑它接下来是否会打破承诺，即在2027年之前保持营收实现两位数增长。更大的问题在于，其联席首席执行官泰德·萨兰多斯（Ted Sarandos）和格雷格·彼得斯（Greg Peters）是否有能力改写剧本。
Some wonder whether it will next break its promise to keep revenue growing by double digits into 2027. The bigger question is whether its co-chief executives, Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters, are capable of changing the script.
面对收视率乏力、缺乏引发时代潮流的节目以及在全美电视艾美奖上表现疲软的一年，他们的应对之策是将责任归咎于下属。奈飞的内容主管贝拉·巴贾里亚（Bela Bajaria）遭解雇，另有两名高级高管也一同离职。在奈飞工作了近十年的巴贾里亚被曾供职于福克斯（Fox）和迪士尼（Disney）的新人彼得·赖斯（Peter Rice）所取代。
Their approach to a year of anaemic viewership, a shortage of zeitgeisty shows and a weak showing in American television’s Emmy Awards is to blame their underlings. Bela Bajaria, Netflix’s head of content, got the sack, along with two other senior executives. Ms Bajaria, who spent nearly ten years at Netflix, was replaced by Peter Rice, a newcomer formerly at Fox and Disney.
奈飞将寄希望于赖斯能够提升其节目在美国观众中的走红比率。然而，问题在于萨兰多斯仍然对公司的内容战略负总体责任。“为什么要解雇贝拉而不是泰德？”分析机构LightShed Partners问道。
Netflix will be hoping that Mr Rice can raise the flagging hit rate of its shows with American viewers. The trouble, however, is that Mr Sarandos still holds overall responsibility for the company’s content strategy. “Why fire Bela and not Ted?” asked LightShed Partners, a firm of analysts.
内容平平并不是导致投资者不满的唯一原因。在过去的一年中，奈飞曾试图收购好莱坞巨头华纳兄弟探索公司（Warner Bros Discovery）的电影和电视工作室但以失败告终，输给了规模较小的同城竞争对手派拉蒙天舞（Paramount Skydance）。一些人认为，这一举动是一次被误导的干扰，表明人们对奈飞的前景缺乏信心。
Lacklustre content is not the only reason for investors’ disgruntlement. During the past year Netflix tried and failed to acquire the film and TV studios of Warner Bros Discovery, a Hollywood colossus, losing out to Paramount Skydance, a smaller Tinseltown rival. Some consider the endeavour to have been a misguided distraction that signalled a lack of confidence in Netflix’s prospects.
“他们从未真正给出一个好理由，”媒体研究公司Enders Analysis的汤姆·哈灵顿（Tom Harrington）表示，“如果你想要更多电影，那就多拍电影。你不需要买下这个庞然大物。”
“They never really gave a good reason for it,” says Tom Harrington of Enders Analysis, a media-research firm. “If you want more movies, just make more movies. You don’t need to buy this giant thing.”
萨兰多斯在财报电话会议上尽最大努力说服投资者，尽管增长放缓且奈飞尝试了一笔巨额收购，“但根本没有必要彻底改变战略”。然而，娱乐行业正处于剧变之中。作为流媒体的先驱，奈飞过去常常为他人设定发展步伐。如今，YouTube取而代之。据市场研究公司尼尔森（Nielsen）统计，在过去的四年里，在电视上观看YouTube的人数一直超过奈飞。
Mr Sarandos tried his best on the earnings call to persuade investors that, despite weakening growth and Netflix’s attempt at a colossal acquisition, there was “no need for a fundamental shift in strategy”. Yet the entertainment business is in the midst of upheaval. As the pioneer of streaming, Netflix used to set the pace for others to follow. Now YouTube does. According to Nielsen, a market-research firm, for the past four years more people have streamed YouTube than Netflix on their TVs.
随着这个视频分享平台上最成功的创作者向高端市场迈进，他们正日益侵蚀奈飞的领地。而在移动端，YouTube、TikTok和Instagram各自吸引的注意力都远超奈飞。
As the video-sharing platform’s most successful creators move up market, they are increasingly invading Netflix’s territory. And on mobile, YouTube, TikTok and Instagram each grab far more attention than Netflix.
与其他流媒体服务（如Disney+）一样，奈飞正在作出反应。它推出了适合智能手机竖屏格式的短视频，拉拢了一些YouTube创作者，并正在扩大其在包括体育在内的现场娱乐领域的投入。然而，奈飞想要脱颖而出变得越来越难，它对新竞争的反应也显得日益混乱。“这是YouTube引发的恐慌，”Enders的哈灵顿说。
Like other streaming services, such as Disney+, Netflix is reacting. It has introduced short-form videos suitable for the vertical format of smartphones, has wooed some YouTube creators and is expanding its efforts around live entertainment, including sports. But it is getting harder for Netflix to stand out, and its response to the new competition looks increasingly haphazard. “It’s YouTube panic,” says Mr Harrington of Enders.
尽管如此，奈飞的最大优势在于其从流媒体中赚钱的能力。正如另一家研究公司Omdia的玛丽亚·鲁阿·阿古蒂（Maria Rua Agouti）所言：“人们观看YouTube，但他们为奈飞付费。”目前，YouTube的订阅业务规模仍然相对较小。
For all that, Netflix’s great strength is its capacity to make money from streaming. As Maria Rua Agouti of Omdia, another research firm, puts it: “People watch YouTube but they pay for Netflix.”For now, YouTube’s subscription business is still relatively small.
奈飞对其在2022年上一次低谷期开始启动的广告销售业务也抱有很高的期望。然而，这项由彼得斯负责的副业最近却令人失望。在财报电话会议上，彼得斯表示，由于新广告产品的采用出现延迟，他预计今年的广告收入为27亿美元，低于此前预测的30亿美元。如果YouTube和其他平台继续争夺观众的注意力，实现这些目标只会变得更加艰难。和他的联席CEO一样，彼得斯也没有表现出要改变方法的迹象。最终，投资者可能会要求另一种形式的大清洗。
Netflix also still has high hopes for its effort to sell ads, which it initiated during its previous slump in 2022. Yet that sideline—which is Mr Peters’ responsibility—has lately been disappointing. On the earnings call Mr Peters said that he expects ad revenue of $2.7bn this year, below the $3bn previously forecasted, owing to delays in the adoption of new ad products. If YouTube and others continue to steal viewers’ attention, hitting such targets will only get tougher. Mr Peters, like his co-chief, offered no indication of a shift in approach. Eventually investors may demand a different kind of bloodletting.