2023年10月7日上午，哈马斯武装人员驾车穿过距加沙不到一英里的以色列城镇斯德罗特，向平民开枪射击。对以色列人而言，这座小城成了国家防御体系失灵程度的一个象征。在2022年的上一次选举中，该镇超过四分之三的选民把票投给了加入以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡联合政府的政党。但在该国下一次选举前九天，两大中右翼政党的领袖、内塔尼亚胡的主要挑战者加迪·艾森科特和纳夫塔利·贝内特来到此地，要向他问责。
On the morning of October 7th 2023 Hamas fighters drove through the Israeli town of Sderot, less than a mile from Gaza, shooting at civilians. For Israelis, the small city became a symbol of the extent to which their nation’s defences had failed. In the last election, in 2022, over three-quarters of its voters plumped for parties that joined the coalition government of Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister. But nine days before the country’s next election, Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett, the leaders of the two big centre-right parties and Mr Netanyahu’s main challengers, were there to hold him to account.
10月7日大屠杀三年后，内塔尼亚胡的对手们决心让这次选举成为对那一天的清算，也是对随后爆发的战争与流血冲突的清算。“任何承诺彻底胜利的人都是在蒙骗公众，”艾森科特在访问期间谈及内塔尼亚胡的战时口号时说道。“他没有什么可提供的。”听者低声表示赞同，但斯德罗特仍有更多许多人支持总理及其盟友。
Three years after the massacres of October 7th, Mr Netanyahu’s rivals are determined to make the election a reckoning for that day and the wars and bloodshed that have followed. “Whoever promises total victory is hoodwinking the public,” Mr Eisenkot said on his visit, in reference to Mr Netanyahu’s wartime slogan. “He has nothing to offer.”Those listening murmured in assent, but many more in Sderot still back the prime minister and his allies.
在以色列各地走访可以清楚看到，这个国家分歧严重。预计没有任何政党能赢得超过20%的选票。政治联盟正在变动。内塔尼亚胡及其盟友没有明显的掌权路径，但他那些争吵不休的对手或许也无法组建联合政府。
Travelling around Israel, it is clear that the country is deeply divided. No party is set to win over 20% of the vote. Political alliances are shifting. Mr Netanyahu and his allies have no obvious route to power but his squabbling foes may not be able to form a coalition either.
斯德罗特是内盖夫地区一个贫困的“开发城镇”，20世纪50年代，来自中东其他地区的犹太移民——米兹拉希人——被安置到这里居住。当地许多人认为国家由阿什肯纳兹（欧洲）犹太人主导的精英阶层把持，这种怨恨至今仍未消散，助推了选民对内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团及其盟友的支持。
Sderot is a hardscrabble “development town” in the Negev where in the 1950s Jewish immigrants from elsewhere in the Middle East, the mizrahim, were sent to live. Resentment towards what many there see as an elite dominated by Ashkenazi (European) Jews still lingers, fuelling votes for Mr Netanyahu’s Likud and its allies.
斯德洛特及类似城镇到处张贴着艾森科特的照片，上面写着“我们自己的总理”这一口号——这是摩洛哥阿拉伯语中一个富有感染力的词，意为“属于我们的”。如果他获胜，他将成为首位出身米兹拉希移民浪潮的总理。许多以色列人更希望由他或贝内特来领导国家。但这位总理已一次又一次地击败民调和预期。
Sderot and towns like it are plastered with pictures of Mr Eisenkot with the slogan “A prime minister dialna”, an evocative word in Moroccan Arabic that means “of us”. If he wins, he will become the first prime minister descended from the mizrahi wave of immigration. Many Israelis would prefer him or Mr Bennett to lead the country. But the prime minister has beaten the polls and expectations time and again.
从斯德洛特沿路二十分钟车程便是内蒂沃特，另一个联盟票仓。一家人气蒸粗麦粉餐馆的大多数顾客认为艾森科特落入“左翼”的掌控之中。三位正在吃午饭的承包商过去都投票给利库德集团。但只有一位——基菲尔·阿尔马西——说自己“继续支持比比”。另外两位对加沙战争没有明确结果感到失望。“比比对我来说太左翼了，”另一位纳维·科恩说。
Twenty minutes down the road from Sderot is Netivot, another coalition stronghold. Most of the customers at a popular couscous joint reckon Mr Eisenkot is in the clutches of “the left”. Three contractors eating lunch all voted Likud in the past. But only one, Kfir Almassi, says he’s “sticking with Bibi”. The other two are disappointed with the inconclusive outcome of the Gaza war. “Bibi is too left-wing for me,” says another, Nave Cohen.
他打算投票给犹太力量党。该党领袖伊塔马尔·本-格维尔目前是国家安全部长，他承诺如果继续留在政府中，将让加沙人口“自愿迁移”。第三位亚尼夫·马根打算投票给“以色列我们的家园”党，这是一个由阿维格多·利伯曼领导的反对党，利伯曼是一位民族主义者，他发誓要赶走内塔尼亚胡，但与其他反对派人士一样，拒绝加入一个由阿拉伯裔以色列政党支持的政府。
He plans to vote for the Jewish Power party. Its leader, Itamar Ben-Gvir, currently the national-security minister, promises to make the population of Gaza “voluntarily migrate” if he remains part of the government. The third, Yaniv Magen, plans to vote for Yisrael Beiteinu, an opposition party led by Avigdor Lieberman, a nationalist who has sworn to remove Mr Netanyahu but, like others in the opposition, refuses to join a government supported by Arab-Israeli parties.
然而，宗教和右翼选民之间的分裂威胁着总理对权力的掌控。内蒂沃特是沙斯党的票仓，该党是由阿里耶·德里领导的米兹拉希极端正统派政党，德里是内塔尼亚胡最老的政治盟友。但一个新的哈雷迪政党在那里异军突起。它不太可能跨过3.25%的选举门槛，但仍可能让沙斯党——进而让内塔尼亚胡阵营——失去一个席位。
And yet splits among religious and right-wing voters threaten the prime minister’s grip on power. Netivot is a stronghold of Shas, the mizrahi ultra-Orthodox party led by Arye Deri, Mr Netanyahu’s oldest political ally. But a new Haredi party has sprung up there. It is unlikely to cross the electoral threshold of 3.25% but it could still deny Shas, and thus the Netanyahu bloc, a seat.
另一个新成立的政党——“哈雷迪公共党”（Haredi Public）正在挑战那些长期与利库德党（Likud）保持紧密合作的、传统的极端正统派政党。这些传统政党长期以来一直获得大量政府资金，用于资助那些不教授数学、科学等科目的宗教学校。哈雷迪公共党代表的是那些希望自己的孩子能够掌握就业技能、甚至能够加入以色列国防军的年轻极端正统派犹太人。
Another new party, the Haredi Public, is challenging the established ultra-Orthodox parties. These have long been close partners of Likud and the recipients of lavish public funding for religious schools that fail to teach subjects such as maths and science. The Haredi Public represents young ultra-Orthodox Jews who want their children to have the skills to join the workforce and even enlist in the Israel Defence Forces.
一位在耶路撒冷举行的集会上的活动人士承认：“我们可能无法赢得选举，但我们的目标是推动社区变革，这才是最重要的。”内塔尼亚胡先生担心这个新政党会威胁到他的联合政府席位，因此曾试图说服哈雷迪公共党退出选举，但未能成功。
“We probably won’t cross the threshold,” admits one activist at a packed rally in Jerusalem. “But we’re founding a movement to change our community and that’s more important.”Mr Netanyahu, worried that they, too, will cost his coalition seats, has tried—unsuccessfully—to persuade the Haredi Public to withdraw.
与此同时，在以色列自由派聚集的特拉维夫咖啡馆里，世俗派以色列人感到必须谨慎地选择自己的投票对象。有些人支持“民主党”（The Democrats）——这个由两个陷入困境的左翼犹太复国主义政党合并而成的新党派——但他们认为埃森科特（Eisenkot）领导的“雅沙尔党”（Yashar）更有可能击败内塔尼亚胡先生，尽管该党的立场比他们所期望的更为右翼。
Meanwhile in the coffee-shops of Tel Aviv, Israel’s liberal bubble, secular Israelis feel the pressure to vote tactically. Some like The Democrats, a merger of the two struggling parties of the Zionist left, but reckon Mr Eisenkot’s Yashar is more likely to beat Mr Netanyahu, even if it is more right-wing than they would prefer.
许多关心以色列对待巴勒斯坦问题的人感到自己在政治上无处可归。“无论是‘民主党’还是埃森科特先生，都没有真正解决与巴勒斯坦的冲突，”莎拉·本-雅各布（Sarah Ben-Yaakov）说。她倾向于支持“拉阿姆党”（Ra’am）——这个在2021年成为首个加入执政联盟的阿拉伯政党。
Many who care about Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians feel politically homeless. “Neither The Democrats or Mr Eisenkot are addressing the conflict with the Palestinians,” says Sarah Ben-Yaakov. She’s leaning towards Ra’am, an Islamist party which in 2021 became the first independent Arab party to join a ruling coalition.
越来越明显的是，阿拉伯政党可能会在这次选举中起到决定性作用。在特拉维夫东部的阿拉伯小镇卡法卡斯姆（Kfar Qasim），一块巨大的利库德党广告牌上写着警告人们“埃森科特先生可能与阿拉伯政党结盟”的内容。“他们设置这块广告牌，就是为了让我们对改变现状失去希望，从而放弃投票，”工程专业的学生伊萨·阿默（Issa Amer）说道。
It is increasingly clear that the Arab parties could be the deciding factor in this election. In Kfar Qasim, an Arab town east of Tel Aviv, a large Likud billboard looms, warning of the danger of Mr Eisenkot joining Arab partners. “They put the sign there to make us despair of any chance to influence events and not vote,” says Issa Amer, an engineering student.
2022年，只有53%的阿拉伯人参与了投票；总体投票率为71%。民意调查专家预计，这次会有更多的阿拉伯人参与投票。阿拉伯政党有可能赢得比目前更多的席位（超过10个席位），甚至可能从内塔尼亚胡领导的联盟中夺取一些席位。不过，由于反对派的顾虑，这可能会增加艾森科特取代内塔尼亚胡的难度。
In 2022 only 53% of Arabs voted; general turnout was 71%. Pollsters expect many more Arabs will vote this time. The Arab parties could win more than their current ten seats. They might take seats from Mr Netanyahu’s bloc. But given the opposition’s qualms, they could make it harder for Mr Eisenkot to replace him.