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拉丁美洲正在拥抱以色列Latin America is embracing Israel

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“拉丁美洲正在发生一件了不起的事,”以色列处境艰难的总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡10月14日笑着说。“一切都在回归!伟大的友谊。”他是在哥伦比亚驻耶路撒冷新大使馆开馆后说这番话的。哥伦比亚已成为第四个——也是迄今为止人口最多的——承认这座圣城为以色列首都的拉丁美洲国家。它不太可能是最后一个。

“Something remarkable is happening in Latin America”, grinned Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s embattled prime minister, on October 14th. “It’s all coming back! The great friendship.”He was speaking following the opening of Colombia’s new embassy in Jerusalem. Colombia has become the fourth—and so far the most populous—Latin American country to recognise the holy city as Israel’s capital. It is unlikely to be the last.

由于加沙战争,以色列变得更加孤立。然而,拉丁美洲的保守派领导人——其中许多人新近当选——正在大幅加强与以色列的关系。阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱最为热切。今年早些时候,他告诉《经济学人》,他认为内塔尼亚胡是一位“超级巨星”。奇怪的是,他本人还声称自己是“世界上最犹太复国主义的总统”。今年4月,米莱宣布了“艾萨克协议”,这是一个旨在加强以色列与该地区接触的模糊框架。布宜诺斯艾利斯与特拉维夫之间的新直飞航班将于下个月开通。

Israel has grown more isolated as a result of the war in Gaza. Yet conservative leaders in Latin America—many of them newly elected—are dramatically stepping up ties. Javier Milei, Argentina’s president, is the keenest. Earlier this year he told The Economist he thought Mr Netanyahu was a “superstar”. He himself has claimed, oddly, to be the “most Zionist president in the world”. In April Mr Milei announced the “Isaac Accords”, a vague framework for closer engagement between Israel and the region. A new direct flight between Buenos Aires and Tel Aviv launches next month.

巴西总统选举的领跑者弗拉维奥·博索纳罗誓言,如果他在10月25日获胜,将把巴西大使馆从特拉维夫迁至耶路撒冷。他最近访问约旦河西岸时表达了对以色列定居者的“全力支持”;他和米莱都曾在西墙前祈祷。除了迁移大使馆外,哥伦比亚还在8月成为除美国之外唯一表示支持以色列对戈兰高地主张的国家。“我们从未如此重视与以色列的关系,”波哥大安第斯大学的桑德拉·博尔达说。

Flávio Bolsonaro, the frontrunner in Brazil’s presidential election, has vowed to relocate his country’s embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem if he wins on October 25th. He expressed his “full support” for Israeli settlers during a recent visit to the West Bank; both he and Mr Milei have prayed before the Western Wall. As well as moving its embassy, Colombia in August became the only country other than the United States to say it supported Israel’s claim to the Golan Heights. “We have never paid so much attention to our relationship with Israel,” says Sandra Borda of the University of the Andes in Bogotá.

在玻利维亚的罗德里戈·帕斯、智利的何塞·安东尼奥·卡斯特尔以及洪都拉斯的纳斯里·阿斯富拉都致力于加强本国与前任政府之间的外交关系;他们的前任政府曾因加沙地区的暴力事件而削弱了与以色列的外交联系。委内瑞拉的临时总统德尔西·罗德里格斯也缓和了该国长期以来的反以色列立场。在6月卡拉卡斯附近发生大地震后,她接受了以色列提供的救援队援助,并恢复了与以色列的外交关系。

Rodrigo Paz in Bolivia, José Antonio Kast in Chile and Nasry Asfura in Honduras have all bolstered diplomatic ties that their predecessors had downgraded in response to the bloodshed in Gaza. Delcy Rodríguez, the interim president of Venezuela, has softened the chavista regime’s longstanding hostility towards Israel. After big earthquakes near Caracas in June she accepted Israel’s offer to send rescue teams and resumed consular ties.

哥伦比亚犹太社区联合会的马科斯·佩克尔称:“拉丁美洲正在逐渐成为一个‘支持和平与友好的大陆’(即一个倾向于与以色列建立友好关系的地区)。”

“Latin America is becoming a blue continent,” says Marcos Peckel of the Confederation of Jewish Communities in Colombia, referring to Israel’s blue-and-white flag.

该地区的一些领导人是出于个人信念而采取这些行动的。例如,米莱先生以与拉比一起学习《托拉》(犹太教经典)而闻名;《经济学人》杂志在8月访问他的办公室时,发现他的桌上放着一本希伯来文书籍。他在2025年对以色列议会的演讲中誓言要“捍卫西方文化”。不过,政治考量显然也是他们决策的重要因素。对于拉丁美洲的新右翼势力来说,与以色列建立更紧密的关系是一种争取美国共和党以及唐纳德·特朗普支持的方式。

Some of the region’s leaders are motivated by strong personal convictions. Mr Milei is known to study the Torah with a rabbi. When The Economist visited his office in August, a Hebrew text sat on his desk. In a speech to Israel’s parliament in 2025, he vowed to “defend Western culture”. Yet political calculations are plainly central, too. Moving closer to Israel is one way for the new right in Latin America to curry favour with America’s Republican Party, and with Donald Trump.

伦敦智库查塔姆研究所(Chatham House)的克里斯托弗·萨巴蒂尼指出,这些政治举措的成本相对较低。皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的一项调查显示,超过一半的阿根廷人、巴西人、哥伦比亚人和秘鲁人对以色列持负面看法——这一比例远低于英国的69%和西班牙的78%。在拉丁美洲的大多数国家,与以色列和巴勒斯坦相关的问题远不如打击犯罪和促进经济发展重要。

The political costs are relatively low, says Christopher Sabatini of Chatham House, a think-tank in London. A survey by Pew, a pollster, finds that a little over half of Argentines, Brazilians, Colombians and Peruvians have an unfavourable view of Israel—much lower than the 69% reported in Britain and 78% in Spain. In most of Latin America, questions related to Israel and Palestine matter far less to voters than fighting crime and boosting the economy.

该地区还有一个增长迅速的支持以色列的群体——福音派基督徒。许多人认为犹太人回归以色列是圣经预言的实现。这些福音派基督徒在推动右翼领导人上台方面发挥了重要作用。在哥伦比亚大选之前,福音派选民为最终获胜的阿贝尔拉多·德·拉·埃斯普里埃拉(Abelardo de la Espriella)举行了祈祷活动;此人曾是无神论者,后来成为虔诚的天主教徒。在巴西大选的第一轮投票中,福音派基督徒也积极支持博索纳罗(Bolsonaro)。

The region also has a swift-growing constituency that encourages outspoken support for Israel: evangelical Christians. Many believe the Jewish return to Israel fulfils biblical prophecy. Born-again Christians have been effective in getting right-wing leaders into power. Before Colombia’s election evangelical voters held prayer vigils for Abelardo de la Espriella, the eventual winner, who was once an atheist but is now a fervent Catholic. Evangelicals also mobilised behind Mr Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil’s election.

该地区的许多领导人在上任时都承诺将对贩毒集团采取强硬措施。各国政府希望借助以色列提供的武器和技术支持来推进自己的反毒计划。2022年,谋杀率是拉丁美洲平均水平三倍的厄瓜多尔表示,将花费约6500万美元购买以色列制造的装甲车。厄瓜多尔的暴力问题根源在于邻国哥伦比亚——德·拉·埃斯普里埃拉最近一直在哥伦比亚境内对武装组织发动轰炸。

Many of the region’s leaders took office promising to take a tough line on drug gangs. Governments are counting on weapons and advice from Israel to give their plans a boost. In 2022 Ecuador, which has a murder rate three times the Latin American average, said it would spend around $65m buying Israeli armoured vehicles. The violence in Ecuador has its roots in neighbouring Colombia, where Mr de la Espriella has recently been bombing armed groups.

但2015至2018年担任哥伦比亚军队领导人的阿尔贝托·何塞·梅希亚(Alberto José Mejía)将军指出,厄瓜多尔的武装部队需要以色列提供的情报和无人机技术才能有效打击犯罪。

But the armed forces need Israeli intelligence and drone technology to act effectively, says General Alberto José Mejía, who led Colombia’s military services in 2015-18.

2024年,时任总统古斯塔沃·佩特罗(Gustavo Petro)切断了与以色列的关系,并停止了哥伦比亚军队长期以来依赖的武器采购。梅希亚将军表示,哥伦比亚的武器储备已经严重枯竭。目前,哥伦比亚的各类反政府武装组织拥有超过2.8万名战斗人员,这一数字几乎是佩特罗上任时的两倍。一位哥伦比亚情报专家评论道:“以色列的国防产业肯定会从本届政府手中获得大量订单。”

In 2024 Gustavo Petro, the president at the time, severed ties with Israel and halted purchases of arms and other equipment that Colombia’s army had long relied on. The country’s weapons stocks were depleted, says General Mejía. Colombia’s various rebel groups now rally more than 28,000 fighters, almost double the figure when Mr Petro took office in 2022. “The Israeli defence complex will have a field day with this government,” says a Colombian intelligence expert.

与以色列的亲密关系能否持续?11月的美国中期选举与此相关。如果共和党人受挫,拉美领导人追随特朗普脚步的意愿可能会有所减弱。在智利,对以色列更友好的政策引发了反弹(该国有一个庞大的巴勒斯坦社群)。哥伦比亚此前亲巴勒斯坦政策的支持者也感到震惊。以色列自己于10月27日举行的选举又增添了不确定性。但至少就目前而言,拉美与以色列正享受着多年来最紧密的纽带关系。

Will the love-in with Israel endure? America’s midterms, in November, are relevant. If Republicans come out wounded, leaders in Latin America may grow a bit less inclined to follow Mr Trump’s lead. In Chile, a friendlier policy towards Israel has prompted a backlash (it has a large Palestinian community). Supporters of Colombia’s formerly pro-Palestinian policies are also aghast. Israel’s own election, on October 27th, adds uncertainty. But for now, at least, Latin America and Israel are enjoying their tightest bond in years.

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