蒂姆观点 气候外交已严重失灵。联合国周三发布的最新严峻预测强调，十年前在巴黎通过的限制全球变暖的雄心目标几乎已无法实现，除非出现紧迫的经济和政治转向，而这种转向在眼下的前景中无处可寻。
Tim’s view Climate diplomacy is deeply broken. The latest dire United Nations projection, published on Wednesday, stressed that the ambitions to limit global warming adopted a decade ago in Paris are all but out of reach, absent an urgent economic and political pivot that appears nowhere on the horizon.
突破1.5℃升温已成定局，即便采用最离谱的技术手段试图将气温拉回，未来恐也难以将其恢复至该水平。报告称，升温轨迹显示本世纪将达到2.8℃。或许更令人担忧的是，报告发现，即使所有国家都兑现过去十年通过联合国谈判进程反复打磨的气候计划——这本身就是一个巨大的“如果”——升温也只能被限制在2.6℃。设定足够的目标，更不用说实现它们，显然本身就是不可能的任务。
Blowing past 1.5℃ of warming is inevitable, and even the most far-fetched techniques possible to claw temperatures back down probably won’t return it to that level in the future. Warming is instead on track to reach 2.8℃ this century, the report said. And, perhaps even more alarmingly, the report found that even if all countries fulfill the climate plans they’ve spent the past decade honing through the UN negotiating process — a very big if — warming will only be limited to 2.6℃. Setting adequate goals, nevermind achieving them, is itself apparently impossible.
毫不意外，报告将大量责任归咎于美国，其排放量在过去一年的增幅超过任何其他国家。但美国退出巴黎进程——该进程将在几周后于土耳其举行的COP31会议上继续——更深远的后果在于，其领导地位显然对维持一个强有力的集中化集体行动平台至关重要。欧亚集团分析师玛丽亚·何塞·瓦尔韦德本周撰文指出，谈判已碎裂成一团双边一次性交易的迷雾，这些交易整体上并不更有可能产生更强有力的气候成果，并导致“谈判日益低效”以及缔约方大会（COP峰会）“逐渐失去实质意义”，尤其是在各国政府和企业应对一连串级联式能源危机之际。
Unsurprisingly, the report lays a lot of blame on the US, which saw its emissions rise more than any other country in the past year. But the bigger consequence of the US withdrawal from the Paris process — which will continue with COP31 in Türkiye in a few weeks — is that its leadership was evidently important in maintaining a strong centralized platform for collective action. Instead, Eurasia Group analyst María José Valverde wrote this week, talks have splintered into a miasma of bilateral one-off deals that, collectively, are no more likely to produce stronger climate outcomes and that render “negotiations increasingly unproductive” and COP summits “progressively irrelevant,” especially as governments and companies grapple with a cascading series of energy crises.
土耳其有机会改变这一进程。安卡拉的优势在于，其为峰会设定的核心目标——加速电气化——也是能源安全的关键原则。但仅凭这一点，不足以让巴黎目标重回可及范围。
Türkiye has a chance to change the course. Ankara’s advantage is that its central goal for the summit — accelerating electrification — is also a key principle of energy security. But it’s not enough, on its own, to put Paris back within reach.
中国计划在即将召开的缔约方大会上，将针对其部分清洁技术的关税描述为全球气候行动的主要障碍。
Notable China is planning to frame tariffs against some of its clean technology as a major obstacle for global climate action in the upcoming COP summit.