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瑞典造王者将商业策略用于政治僵局Sweden’s Kingmaker Applies Business Playbook to Political Deadlock

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10月22日,伊丽莎白·坦德·林奎斯特在斯德哥尔摩。摄影:埃里克·弗莱格/彭博社Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist in Stockholm, on Oct. 22. Photographer: Erik Flyg/Bloomberg

坦德·林奎斯特(Thand Ringqvist)掌握着瑞典下届政府的命运。现在,最困难的部分来了:她需要找到一个她的政党能够真正支持的联合政府。

Thand Ringqvist holds the key to Sweden’s next government. Now comes the hard part: finding a coalition her party can actually support.

在上个月的大选中,坦德·林奎斯特领导的中间党(Center Party)的选票结果成为了决定社会民主党领袖玛格达莱娜·安德森(Magdalena Andersson)能否重返总理职位,或是中右翼现任总理乌尔夫·克里斯特松(Ulf Kristersson)能否连任的关键因素。

After a general election last month, the votes of Thand Ringqvist’s Center Party emerged as pivotal to whether Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson returns to the premiership or center-right incumbent Ulf Kristersson gets a second term.

在议会主席的请求下,这位54岁的前麦肯锡咨询顾问开始尝试打破政治僵局。她表示,她会利用自己在商业领域的经验来协调瑞典各政党之间的分歧与诉求。

After being asked by parliament’s speaker to try to break the political deadlock, the 54-year-old former McKinsey & Co. consultant says she is drawing on her business career to navigate the competing demands of Sweden’s parties.

“这有点像在复杂情况下担任顾问:需要分析各种选项,从所听到和看到的信息中得出结论,并提出正确的问题,”她在周四瑞典议会的一次采访中说道。

“It’s a bit like being a consultant in a complex situation: exploring the options, being able to draw conclusions from what you hear and see, and asking the right questions,” she said in an interview at the Swedish parliament on Thursday.

她在麦肯锡的工作经历教会了她如何“明确问题的本质并对其进行结构化分析”,以及如何“与人进行有效沟通并倾听他们的意见”。她认为这些技能在当前的工作中非常有用。凭借中间党25名当选议员的支持,安德森一方拥有176个议席,而代理总理克里斯特松一方则拥有173个议席。坦德·林奎斯特表示,她更倾向于让玛格达莱娜·安德森成为总理人选。

Her time at McKinsey had taught her to “define and structure problems” as well as “interview and listen to people,” she said. “I’m finding that extremely useful in what I’m doing right now.”With the support of Center’s 25 elected lawmakers, Andersson’s side has 176 seats versus 173 for acting premier Kristersson’s, and Thand Ringqvist has said the Social Democrat leader is her preferred choice for prime minister.

根据瑞典的选举制度,在必须举行新的选举之前,可以对总理候选人进行最多四次投票。其中一次投票已经进行过,结果安德森落败了。要想组建由她领导的政府,就必须找到一种办法来调和中间党与左翼政党之间的矛盾与分歧。

Under the Swedish system, four votes can be held on prime ministerial candidates before a new election must be called. One vote has already been held on Andersson, which she lost. A route to a government led by her would require finding a way around the Center and Left parties’ conflicting red lines.

然而,中间党自身以及其潜在盟友都设定了严格的立场与红线,导致组建新政府的谈判陷入了停滞。另一方面,中间党由于坚持自由市场政策,因此无法与安德森所在的左翼政党达成联合政府的协议。

But the Center has been boxed in by its own red lines and those of potential allies, leaving talks over forming a new government largely stalled. e side, its focus on the free market prevents the formerly agrarian force from agreeing to a coalition with Andersson’s allies in the Left Party.

坦德·林奎斯特(Thand Ringqvist)表示,在支持左翼政党执政方面,她已经做出了“明确的决定”(即不再继续支持左翼)。当被问及如何才能消除这一障碍时,她回答说:“这是不可能的。”她解释说:“这不仅仅是因为党派政治或个人利益的原因,而是因为我们认为这对瑞典来说会是非常有害的。”她列举了左翼政党推行的增税政策以及废除私有化措施等作为主要原因。

Thand Ringqvist said it was a “hard stop” when it came to supporting the Left in government. Asked what it would take to remove that obstacle, she said: “It is not possible.”“It’s not just for party-political, self-interested reasons, but because we think it would be really bad for Sweden,” she said, listing their drive for more taxes and unwinding privatizations as key reasons.

另一方面,她指出中间党(Center Party)无法支持克里斯特松(Kristersson),除非他放弃与反对移民的瑞典民主党(Sweden Democrats)的联盟;坦德·林奎斯特认为,瑞典民主党的政策对“不同群体”抱有怀疑态度。在这种僵局下,议会发言人安德烈亚斯·诺伦(Andreas Norlén)于周一邀请坦德·林奎斯特牵头推动组建中间派联盟的谈判,尽管她本人并不谋求总理职位。根据瑞典的传统,联盟中最大政党的领袖应该担任总理,因此她并未主动提出自己担任这一职务。

On the other hand, she said Center can’t support Kristersson unless he ditches his alliance with the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats, a party Thand Ringqvist said has policies with “a feeling of suspicion about people who are different.”Amid the stalemate, parliament speaker Andreas Norlén on Monday asked Thand Ringqvist to lead talks on forming a centrist coalition, even though she is not herself vying for premiership. Swedish tradition dictates that the leader of the largest party in a bloc should be prime minister, and she was therefore not putting herself forward for the post, she said.

坦德·林奎斯特在20世纪90年代初曾在斯德哥尔摩经济学院(Stockholm School of Economics)学习,之后在麦肯锡(McKinsey)工作,后来创立了一家投资公司。

Thand Ringqvist studied at the Stockholm School of Economics in the early 1990s before working for McKinsey and later founding an investment company.

近年来,在北欧及其他地区,将商业思维引入政治领域的尝试取得了不同的结果:2015年,芬兰选举中间党领袖、科技富豪尤哈·西皮莱(Juha Sipilä)为总理,他承诺以更加创业型的方式管理国家。虽然他确实提升了国家的竞争力,但最终还是对政治决策的迟缓感到失望。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政治魅力在很大程度上也源于他作为“谈判专家”的形象。

The idea of bringing a business mindset to politics has had a mixed track record in the Nordics and beyond in recent years. Finland elected Center Party leader and tech millionaire Juha Sipilä to the premiership in 2015 on a promise to run the country with a more entrepreneurial approach. While he managed to boost competitiveness of the economy, he was ultimately frustrated by the sluggishness of political decision making. US President Donald Trump’s political appeal has also drawn heavily on his image as a dealmaker.

Thand Ringqvist表示,她能将商业敏锐度与长期的政治经验相结合。她20岁时成为家乡、位于农村地区的厄斯特松德市议会的候补成员,后来担任本党学生组织主席。她在2006年至2010年间担任党领袖顾问,并于2022年当选为议员。

Thand Ringqvist says she can combine her business acumen with lengthy experience in politics. She became a substitute member of the local council in her rural home town of Östersund when she was 20 and later chaired her party’s student organization. She was an adviser to the party leader between 2006 and 2010 and was elected to parliament in 2022.

在她试图探明各党看似不可动摇的立场是否真能松动之际,这些政治经验或许与她的咨询技能同样重要。

That political experience may be just as important as her consulting skills as she tries to establish whether any of the parties’ seemingly immovable positions can actually shift.

她承认,政治光谱左右两侧的观察人士都在“竭力击倒她的提议”,而她本周成功的机会“渺茫”。自由党是她提议的中间派集团五个成员党之一,已表示不会支持安德松出任首相;另一成员党基督教民主党则持高度怀疑态度。

She acknowledged that observers on both the left and right of the political spectrum were “doing their best to shoot her proposal down” and that her chances of success this week were “small.”The Liberals, one of five parties in her proposed bloc, have already said they won’t back Andersson as premier, while another, the Christian Democrats, are highly skeptical.

伊丽莎白·坦德·林奎斯特Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist

“我们仍认为尝试这样做有价值,”她说,并补充称将与所有七个政党的领袖交谈,以获取局势的“全貌”。

“We still think there’s value in trying this,” she said, adding that she would talk to the leaders of all seven parties to get “a full picture” of the situation.

她说,即使她本周未能赢得必要盟友的支持,她的想法或许可以在“稍后阶段”重提,届时将变得“切题”。

Even if she didn’t succeed in winning over the necessary allies this week, her idea could perhaps be returned to “at a later stage” when it would be “relevant,” she said.

中间党拒绝左翼党进入政府,而左翼党表示不会支持任何不包含自己的政府。

While Center rejects the Left being in government, the Left says it won’t back any government it isn’t part of.

Thand Ringqvist获准时间至下周一,就她尝试凝聚中间派替代方案的情况作出汇报。

Thand Ringqvist has been given until next Monday to report back on her attempts to bring together her centrist alternative.

前首相卡尔·比尔特周三警告称,除非“有人愿意从目前的立场上做出大翻身”,否则瑞典可能面临二次大选。

Former Prime Minister Carl Bildt warned on Wednesday that the country could be heading for a second election unless “someone is willing to perform a somersault” from their current position.

Thand Ringqvist表示,如果需要再次大选将是一种“失败”,并补充说她尚不清楚能否找到解决方案,因为她还没与所有党领袖交谈过。

Thand Ringqvist said it would be a “failure” if another election were needed, adding she didn’t yet know whether a solution could be found because she hadn’t spoken to all the party leaders.

“我的任务之一是探明那些红线有多硬,以及它们是否会随时间推移而淡化。”

“Part of my task is to gauge how firm those red lines are, and whether they might fade over time or not.”

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