新加坡：10月16日，在全球指数提供商明晟（MSCI）提议将印尼股市从新兴市场降级为“独立市场”（standalone）状态后，印尼股市的市值蒸发了约650亿美元。
SINGAPORE: About US$65 billion was wiped off the value of Indonesian stocks on Oct 16 after global index provider MSCI proposed downgrading the country's stock market from emerging market to "standalone" status.
在这一公告发布后，雅加达综合指数暴跌11.6%，创下自1998年亚洲金融危机以来的最大单日跌幅。
Jakarta Composite plunged 11.6 per cent following the announcement, marking its biggest one-day fall since the 1998 Asian financial crisis.
这一提议让投资者措手不及，因为它比明晟在1月份发出的、关于印尼可能被降级为“前沿市场”状态的最初警告更为严厉。
The proposal caught investors by surprise, as it went further than MSCI’s initial warning in January that Indonesia could be demoted to “frontier market” status.
如果付诸实施，这一降级可能会引发数十亿美元的资金从这个东南亚最大经济体外流，尽管印尼当局正在推行旨在解决市场透明度和交易惯例相关担忧的改革。
If implemented, the downgrade could trigger billions of dollars in foreign outflows from Southeast Asia's largest economy, even as Indonesian authorities pursue reforms aimed at addressing concerns over market transparency and trading practices.
但降级并非已成定局。明晟已给予印尼时间，以便在明年做出最终决定之前，证明其实现了实质性和持久的改善。
But the downgrade is not yet a done deal. MSCI has given Indonesia time to demonstrate meaningful and lasting improvements before reaching a final decision next year.
什么是独立市场状态？为什么明晟会考虑如此剧烈的降级？它又将如何影响印尼股市？
What does a standalone status mean, why is MSCI considering such a drastic downgrade, and how could it affect Indonesia’s stock market?
明晟的影响力 原名为摩根士丹利资本国际（Morgan Stanley Capital International）的明晟是全球最大的指数提供商之一，与富时罗素（FTSE Russell）和标普道琼斯指数（S&P Dow Jones Indices）等竞争对手齐名。
THE INFLUENCE OF MSCI MSCI, originally known as Morgan Stanley Capital International, is one of the world's largest index providers, alongside rivals such as FTSE Russell and S&P Dow Jones Indices.
其影响力在于全球基金经理对其基准的广泛使用，他们依靠这些基准来指导投资配置并衡量其投资组合的表现。
Its influence lies in the widespread use of its benchmarks by global fund managers, who rely on them to guide investment allocations and measure the performance of their portfolios.
约有10万亿美元的资产以明晟新兴市场指数为基准，这使得它关于将哪些国家和公司纳入指数的决定，可能对投资流向产生重大影响。
About US$10 trillion in assets are benchmarked against MSCI's Emerging Markets Index, making its decisions on which countries and companies to include potentially consequential for investment flows.
因此，一个国家被纳入或排除在这些指数之外，可能会影响有多少外资流入或流出其股市。
A country's inclusion in or exclusion from these indexes can therefore influence how much foreign capital enters or leaves its stock market.
降级为独立市场意味着什么 明晟将全球股票市场分为四个类别：发达市场、新兴市场、前沿市场或独立市场。前沿市场比新兴市场规模更小、发展程度更低或更难进入。
WHAT A STANDALONE DOWNGRADE MEANS MSCI classifies global equity markets into four categories: developed, emerging, frontier or standalone. Frontier markets are smaller, less developed or less accessible than emerging markets.
要符合资格，一个市场必须至少有一家公司满足 MSCI（明晟）的最低规模和流动性要求等标准，并展现出一定程度的对外国投资者的可及性。该类别中的亚洲市场包括越南、巴基斯坦、斯里兰卡和孟加拉国。
To qualify, a market must have at least one company meeting MSCI’s minimum size and liquidity requirements, among other criteria, and demonstrate a degree of accessibility to foreign investors Asian markets in this category include Vietnam, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
与此同时，独立市场处于 MSCI 的已开发、新兴和前沿市场指数体系之外。
Standalone markets, meanwhile, sit outside MSCI’s developed, emerging and frontier market indexes.
它们大体可分为两类：新符合条件的市场，以及此前归类于已开发、新兴或前沿市场类别的市场。
They are broadly classified into two groups: newly eligible markets and markets previously classified under the developed, emerging or frontier market categories.
根据 MSCI 的说法，如果一个市场的可及性、规模或流动性严重恶化，可能会被重新归类为独立市场。
According to MSCI, a market may be reclassified as standalone if there is a severe deterioration in its accessibility, size or liquidity.
该类别中的市场包括阿根廷、黎巴嫩、尼日利亚和乌克兰。亚太地区没有此类市场。
Markets in this category include Argentina, Lebanon, Nigeria and Ukraine. None are in the Asia-Pacific region.
对印度尼西亚而言，从新兴市场降级为独立市场地位，将意味着其股票被全球投资基金追踪的主要新兴市场指数剔除。
For Indonesia, a downgrade from emerging to standalone status would mean its stocks being removed from major emerging market indexes tracked by investment funds worldwide.
被动追踪这些指数或以这些指数为业绩比较基准的基金将被迫抛售其持有的印度尼西亚资产。以这些指数为业绩比较基准的主动管理型基金也可能减少其敞口。
Funds that passively track these indexes, or are ranked against them, would be forced to sell their Indonesian holdings. Actively managed funds benchmarked against them could also reduce their exposure.
如果印度尼西亚市场降级为独立市场地位，它将成为独立市场类别中经济体量最大的市场，规模是下一个最大市场阿根廷的两倍多。
If Indonesia’s market is downgraded to standalone status, it would become the largest economy in the standalone category, at more than twice the size of Argentina, the next largest.
对透明度和市场运作的担忧 分析师告诉 CNA，MSCI 的担忧超越了印度尼西亚股市的规模和流动性，延伸至关于其如何运作的更根本问题。
CONCERNS OVER TRANSPARENCY AND MARKET FUNCTIONING MSCI's concerns go beyond the size and liquidity of Indonesia's stock market to more fundamental questions about how it operates, analysts told CNA.
Allspring Global Investments 的投资组合经理 Gary Tan 表示，该指数编制机构的核心担忧集中在印度尼西亚市场的透明度、价格形成机制以及监管执法的公信力上。
Allspring Global Investments' portfolio manager Gary Tan said the index provider's core concerns centre on Indonesia's market transparency, price formation and the credibility of regulatory enforcement.
同样，Eastspring Investments 表示，MSCI 拟议的降级反映了对印度尼西亚交易机制的完整性和公信力的质疑。
Similarly, Eastspring Investments said MSCI's proposed downgrade reflects questions about the integrity and credibility of Indonesia's trading mechanisms.
今年1月，明晟（MSCI）首次发出警告称，印度尼西亚可能会失去其新兴市场地位，并指出印尼存在不透明的股权结构、涉嫌协同交易活动以及执法不足等问题。
In January, MSCI first warned that Indonesia could lose its emerging market status, citing opaque share ownership structures, suspected coordinated trading activity and inadequate enforcement.
该公司表示，其客户曾对市场数据的可靠性表达担忧，特别是关于可供公众交易的股份比例（即自由流通股）以及股东分类的信息。这些问题使得投资者难以确定究竟有多少股份可真正用于交易。
It said its clients had flagged concerns about the reliability of market data, particularly information on the proportion of shares available for public trading, known as free float, and how shareholders were classified. These made it difficult for investors to determine how many shares were genuinely available for trading.
明晟表示，部分股票价格可能受到人为支撑的担忧，也引发了对市场价格可靠性以及监管监督有效性的质疑。
Concerns that some stock prices may have been artificially supported also raised questions about the reliability of market prices and the effectiveness of regulatory oversight, MSCI said.
然而，印尼官员对明晟评估的依据提出了质疑，并呼吁其提高方法的透明度。
Indonesian officials, however, have questioned the basis of MSCI's assessment and called for greater transparency over its methodology.
总统普拉博沃·苏比托（Prabowo Subianto）本周早些时候向其内阁表示，这家全球指数编制公司正试图“恐吓”该国。
President Prabowo Subianto told his Cabinet earlier this week that the global index provider was trying to "intimidate" the country.
负责监督财政事务的国会委员会成员、来自民族觉醒党的哈尼夫·达基里（Hanif Dhakiri）呼吁明晟的方法应当透明、客观，并在各国之间保持一致的应用。
Hanif Dhakiri of the National Awakening Party, who sits on the parliamentary committee overseeing finance affairs, called for MSCI's methodology to be transparent, objective and consistently applied across countries.
他在接受路透社采访时表示：“在面对批评时，我们不应采取防御姿态，但我们也不应在不检查其依据和客观性的情况下接受评判。”
"We should not be defensive in the face of criticism, but neither should we accept judgements without examining their basis and objectivity," he told Reuters.
明晟在给路透社的一封电子邮件回复中表示，其决策遵循透明且基于规则的方法。
MSCI, in an emailed response to Reuters, said its decisions follow transparent and rules-based methodologies.
明晟为何正考虑进行更严厉的降级 上周，明晟进一步表示，将印尼市场降级为前沿市场可能无法充分反映这些问题的严重性。
WHY MSCI IS CONSIDERING A MORE SEVERE DOWNGRADE Last week, MSCI went a step further, saying that demoting Indonesia’s market to frontier status might not adequately reflect the severity of these problems.
这家全球指数编制公司表示，印尼当局未能取得“足够进展”以证明其持续落实市场改革及其实际产生的持久影响。该公司还补充说，执法不力依然是一个令人担忧的问题。
The global index provider said Indonesian authorities had failed to make “sufficient progress” in demonstrating consistent implementation of market reforms and their sustained impact. Weak enforcement also remained a concern, it added.
谭先生表示，MSCI 可能担心，将印度尼西亚降级为前沿市场而非独立市场地位，只会把其未解决的深层市场问题转移到另一个 MSCI 指数中。
Mr Tan said MSCI may be concerned that downgrading Indonesia to a frontier market instead of a standalone status would simply transfer its unresolved underlying market issues into another MSCI index.
他补充道：“这将造成更大的冲击，因为印度尼西亚将退出（新兴市场指数），却没有前沿指数基金的资金流入来抵消。”
"This would be more disruptive, as Indonesia would leave (the emerging market index) without the offsetting inflows from frontier index funds," he added.
Aletheia Capital 的东盟专家 Angus Mackintosh 指出，MSCI 早前将几家印尼公司从其印尼指数中剔除，也可能影响了此次提案的严厉程度。他对 CNA 表示：“这可能影响了此次采取的严厉做法。”
Angus Mackintosh, an ASEAN specialist at Aletheia Capital, suggested that MSCI's earlier removal of several Indonesian companies from its Indonesia index may also have influenced the severity of its latest proposal. "This may have had a bearing on the severe approach this time around," he told CNA.
“MSCI 已经明确表示，除非印度尼西亚在制裁市场操纵方面取得进展，否则将对其进行降级，尽管它并未具体说明想要什么。”在 MSCI 提出建议后，印度尼西亚金融服务管理局公布了针对涉及交易违规的市场参与者的数百万美元罚款——其中包括 MSCI 此前从其指数中剔除的三家公司。
"MSCI has already made it clear that it will downgrade Indonesia unless it makes progress on its demands to sanction market abuse, although it has not been specific as to what it wants." Following MSCI's proposal, Indonesia's Financial Services Authority disclosed fines of millions of dollars for market participants involved in trading violations - including three of the companies MSCI had cut from its index.
可能引发数十亿美元资金外流 降级可能触发数十亿美元的资本外流，因为国际基金会抛售印尼股票，以使其投资组合与 MSCI 修订后的分类保持一致。
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN POTENTIAL OUTFLOWS A downgrade could trigger billions of US dollars in capital outflows as international funds sell Indonesian equities to align their portfolios with MSCI's revised classifications.
自 1989 年以来，印度尼西亚一直被归类为 MSCI 新兴市场。
Indonesia has been classified as an MSCI emerging market since 1989.
失去这一地位将标志着一个直到最近仍深受外国投资者青睐的市场发生重大变化。
Losing that status would mark a significant change for a market that was, until recently, a favourite among foreign investors.
Mackintosh 先生表示，就被动资金外流和主动资金外流而言，影响将相当严重。
The impact would be quite severe in terms of passive money outflows and active money outflows, Mr Mackintosh said.
银行估计，降级可能触发 30 亿至 60 亿美元的被动新兴市场基金资金外流。瑞银还警告称，主动投资者可能再撤出 150 亿美元。
Banks estimate that a downgrade could trigger US$3 billion to US$6 billion in outflows from passive emerging market funds. UBS also warned that active investors could withdraw another US$15 billion.
除了直接的抛售压力外，降级还可能影响国际投资者对印尼资产的评估。
Beyond the immediate selling pressure, a downgrade could affect how international investors assess Indonesian assets.
麦金托什表示，这可能会对印尼货币产生负面影响，并增加该国的资本成本。
It could impact Indonesia's currency negatively and increase the cost of capital in the country, Mr Mackintosh said.
不过，瀚亚投资警告称，最终的影响将取决于指数提供商的最终决定、任何重新分类如何实施，以及投资者如何应对印尼正在进行的资本市场改革。
However, Eastspring Investments cautioned that the eventual impact would depend on the index providers’ final decisions, how any reclassification is implemented and how investors respond to Indonesia's ongoing capital market reforms.
预计的资金外流也只是估算，而非保证会被撤资，实际抛售可能取决于投资组合的构成以及任何指数调整的时间。
The projected outflows are also estimates rather than guaranteed withdrawals, with actual selling likely to depend on the composition of investment portfolios and the timing of any index changes.
该公司表示，在近期内，围绕此次重新分类评估的不确定性可能会延长印尼股市的波动期，尤其是在国内催化剂有限和外部压力持续的背景下。
In the near term, uncertainty surrounding this reclassification review may prolong volatility in Indonesian equities, particularly amid limited domestic catalysts and persistent external pressures, it said.
瀚亚投资补充说，在MSCI于明年6月之前做出最终决定之前，市场可能会在未来六到九个月内面临一个漫长的不确定期。
The market could face a prolonged period of uncertainty over the next six to nine months, until MSCI reaches its final decision before June next year, Eastspring Investments added.
避免降级的窗口期 分析人士表示，印尼仍有机会保留其新兴市场地位，但需要证明其改革正在对市场行为和透明度带来持久的改善。
A WINDOW TO AVERT A DOWNGRADE Analysts said Indonesia still has an opportunity to retain its emerging market status, but will need to demonstrate that its reforms are producing lasting improvements in market conduct and transparency.
MSCI已给该国留出时间来解决投资者提出的担忧，并证明其改革正在市场透明度、行为和执法方面带来持久的改善。
MSCI has given the country time to address the concerns raised by investors and demonstrate that its reforms are delivering lasting improvements in market transparency, conduct and enforcement.
该指数提供商将与机构投资者进行咨询，直至明年4月，预计将于6月做出最终决定。
The index provider is consulting institutional investors until next April, with a final decision expected by June.
麦格理集团东盟股票研究主管杰登·万塔拉基斯对亚洲新闻台表示，监管机构必须采取充分行动，解决各方对市场行为的担忧，并说服机构投资者反对拟议的重新分类。
Macquarie Group's head of ASEAN equity research Jayden Vantarakis told CNA that regulators must take sufficient action to address concerns over market conduct and convince institutional investors to oppose the proposed reclassification.
同样，陈先生表示，印尼必须在透明度、交易惯例和执法方面展现出切实的改善。
Similarly, Mr Tan said Indonesia must demonstrate tangible improvements in transparency, trading practices and enforcement.
陈先生解释说：“归根结底，MSCI需要有信心相信，这些措施在当前的指数冻结解除后依然会持续有效。”
Ultimately, MSCI will need confidence that these measures will remain effective after the current index freeze is lifted," Mr Tan explained.
自 MSCI 于 1 月首次提出担忧以来，印尼当局已推出一系列措施。
Indonesian authorities have already introduced a series of measures since MSCI first raised its concerns in January.
高层官员被市场广泛认知且信任的人物取代。其金融监管机构和证券交易所出台了更严格的措施，并采取了旨在降低市场操纵风险的改革。
Top officials were replaced by figures widely known and trusted by markets. Its financial regulator and stock exchange introduced tighter measures and adopted reforms intended to reduce the risk of market manipulation.
在 MSCI 发布最新公告几小时后，印尼金融监管机构还对与市场操纵行为有关的实体共计处以 2.1 万亿盾（约 1.1641 亿美元）罚款。印尼当局还要求警方调查“资本市场涉嫌违规或犯罪行为”。
Hours after MSCI’s latest announcement, Indonesia’s financial regulator also imposed a total of 2.1 trillion rupiah (US$116.41 million) in fines against entities linked to market manipulation practices. Indonesian authorities have also asked the police to investigate “alleged violations or criminal acts in the capital market”.
麦金托什承认印尼推出了许多政策措施，但表示当前的重点是确保这些措施得到严格执行。
Mr Mackintosh acknowledged that Indonesia had introduced numerous policy measures, but said the priority now was to ensure they were strictly implemented.
他说：“应对协调交易和股价操纵负责的人，应通过罚款或监禁予以惩罚。”
"Those responsible for coordinated trading and share manipulations should be punished through fines or prison terms," he said.
罕见举措，鲜有先例 从新兴市场直接降级为独立市场地位极不寻常。
RARE MOVE WITH FEW PRECEDENTS A direct downgrade from emerging market to standalone status is highly unusual.
过去十年间，有五个市场被移至独立市场地位，而自 1997 年以来，共有八个市场被降级为该类别。
Over the past decade, five markets have been moved to standalone status, while eight have been downgraded to that category since 1997.
其中，仅有三个市场在该时期内经历了从新兴市场直接降级为独立市场地位的情况。
Of these, only three have experienced a direct downgrade from emerging market to standalone status over that period.
最著名的例子包括阿根廷，该国于 2021 年因实施资本管制而被降级；以及俄罗斯，该国于 2022 年因西方在其入侵乌克兰后实施制裁、实际上将其与全球金融市场切断联系，而被移至独立市场地位。
Among the most prominent examples are Argentina, which was downgraded in 2021 after imposing capital controls, and Russia, which was moved to standalone status in 2022 after Western sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine effectively cut it off from global financial markets.
但谭先生表示，印尼的情况不同，并补充称，此案的核心在于对市场运作、治理和执法的担忧。
But Indonesia's situation is different, Mr Tan said, adding that the case centres on concerns over market functioning, governance and enforcement.
麦金托什还指出，此前没有因极少数市场参与者的行为或透明度担忧而导致市场被降级为独立市场地位的先例。
Mr Mackintosh also noted that there were no precedents of markets being downgraded to standalone status because of the actions of a relatively small number of market participants or concerns over transparency.
他对亚洲新闻台（CNA）表示：“在大多数衡量指标上，印度尼西亚的表现都相当不错，足以经受住新兴市场同行的考验，这也是这最新举措令人费解的原因。”尽管如此，评级下调带来的潜在财务影响仍可能是巨大的。
"Indonesia stands up well against its emerging market peers on most measures, which is what makes this latest move perplexing," he told CNA. The potential financial impact of a downgrade could nevertheless be substantial.
据摩根大通（JPMorgan）称，印尼在摩根大通新兴市场指数（MSCI's emerging market index）中所占权重为百分之0.46。这意味着，在追踪该指数的基金中，每投资1000亿美元，就会有大约4.6亿美元被配置到印尼股票上。
According to JPMorgan, Indonesia accounts for 0.46 per cent of MSCI's emerging market index. This means that for every US$100 billion invested in funds tracking that index, about US$460 million would be allocated to Indonesian stocks.
相比之下，阿根廷被从该指数剔除时，其权重仅为百分之0.12。
By comparison, Argentina had a weight of just 0.12 per cent when it was removed from the index.
机构投资者影响力的局限性 此次拟议的评级下调还引发了一场争议，即大型机构投资者能否对全球指数提供商施加影响。
LIMITS OF INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR INFLUENCE The proposed downgrade has also sparked controversy over whether major institutional investors can influence global index providers.
在摩根大通宣布这一消息后，印尼前贸易部长穆罕默德·卢特菲（Muhammad Lutfi）周二指控，新加坡国家投资者淡马锡（Temasek）和新加坡政府投资公司（GIC）曾参与施压摩根大通，要求其向印尼发出警告。
Following MSCI’s announcement, former Indonesian trade minister Muhammad Lutfi on Tuesday alleged that Singapore state investors Temasek and GIC had been involved in pressuring MSCI to issue the warning to Indonesia.
新加坡政府投资公司和淡马锡均已驳斥了这些指控。新加坡政府投资公司表示，其投资决策并非由指数分类或对市场的自上而下观点驱动，而是着眼于公司层面或资产层面的基本面。那么，主权财富基金究竟能对指数提供商施加多大的影响力？
Both GIC and Temasek have rejected the allegations GIC said its investment decisions are not driven by index classifications or top-down views of a market. Instead, it looks at the fundamentals at a company level or asset level. So how much influence can sovereign wealth funds wield over index providers?
谭先生表示，包括主权财富基金在内的大型机构投资者可以在摩根大通的咨询过程中提交证据和反馈。
Mr Tan said large institutional investors, including sovereign wealth funds, can submit evidence and feedback during MSCI's consultation process.
不过，他强调，指数提供商最终需要维护其方法论的独立性和信誉。
However, he stressed that index providers ultimately need to safeguard the independence and credibility of their methodologies.
他补充说，主权财富基金的投资通常也比被动追踪指数的基金更具机械性，其资产配置更多是由投资基本面而非基准权重驱动。最终的分类决定权在于指数提供商。
Sovereign wealth funds also typically invest less mechanically than passive index-tracking funds, with their allocations driven more by investment fundamentals than benchmark weightings, he added. The final classification decision rests with the index provider.