
伊斯兰堡/伊斯坦布尔——随着中东地缘政治紧张局势加剧,土耳其、巴基斯坦、印度尼西亚和卡塔尔本周签署了一项防御协议,扩大了涉及沙特阿拉伯的麦加同盟的能力。
ISLAMABAD/ISTANBUL -- Turkey, Pakistan, Indonesia and Qatar signed a defense agreement this week that expands the capabilities of the Mecca alliance involving Saudi Arabia, as geopolitical tensions rise in the Middle East.
专家表示,这四个国家周三在多哈签署的“巴德尔”条约旨在提供资金和军事技术,以补充包含土耳其、巴基斯坦和沙特阿拉伯在内的麦加同盟。
The Badr pact signed among the four countries in Doha on Wednesday aims to provide the funding and military technologies to complement the Mecca alliance that comprises Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, experts said.
澳大利亚迪金大学名誉研究员扎希德·沙哈布(Zahid Shahab)表示,中小型大国正在努力应对其安全关切,并将与盟友合作视为前进的道路。鉴于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普政府的不可预测性,这些国家还旨在摆脱对美国支持和武器的完全依赖。
Middle and small powers are struggling to address their security concerns and see cooperation with allies as the way forward, said Zahid Shahab, an honorary fellow at Deakin University in Australia. These countries are also aiming to move away from a complete reliance on the U.S. for support and weapons, particularly given the unpredictability of the administration of President Donald Trump.
沙哈布说,这些国家“不仅在重新审视其现有的安全同盟和双边伙伴关系,还在探索新的伙伴关系”。“(巴德尔协议)需要从这个角度来看待。”
The countries "are not only revisiting their existing security alliances and bilateral partnerships but also exploring new ones," Shahab said. "The [Badr agreement] needs to be viewed from that perspective."
位于伊斯兰堡的智库萨诺贝尔研究所(Sanober Institute)执行主任卡马尔·切马(Qamar Cheema)对《日经亚洲》表示:“如果我们通过巴基斯坦、土耳其和沙特阿拉伯的视角来看,麦加条约关乎防御,而巴德尔条约则关乎为麦加条约提供技术和工业支持。”然而,印度尼西亚战略防务研究所(Lembaga Keris)的防务与军事分析师哈尼夫·拉哈迪安(Hanif Rahadian)表示,这取决于巴德尔协议是否能带来具体的落实、有意义的技术转让以及联合项目的开发。
Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Sanober Institute, an Islamabad-based think tank, told Nikkei Asia that "the Mecca pact is about defense, while the Badr pact is about providing technological and industrial support to the Mecca pact, if we look at it through the lens of Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia." That is, however, dependent on whether the Badr deal leads to concrete implementation, meaningful technology transfer and the development of joint projects. according to Hanif Rahadian, defense and military analyst at Strategic Defense Studies (Lembaga Keris) in Indonesia.
对沙特阿拉伯而言,这种需求十分迫切。伊朗支持的胡塞武装本周继续对该王国发动袭击,袭击了利雅得国际机场和国营石油生产商沙特阿美,导致航班、会议和能源运输被取消。
For Saudi Arabia, the need is acute. Iran-backed Houthis continued their assault on the kingdom this week, attacking Riyadh's international airport and state-controlled oil producer Saudi Aramco, resulting in the cancellation of flights, conventions and energy shipments.
8月签署的麦加协议中的一项条款要求,如果任何成员国遭到袭击,必须采取集体防御行动,这很像北约的第五条。为此,北约成员国土耳其正在寻求议会批准,向沙特阿拉伯部署军事装备和部队,以防御胡塞武装的打击。
A clause in the Mecca agreement, signed in August, requires collective defensive action if any member is attacked, much like NATO's Article 5. To this end, NATO member Turkey is in the process of seeking parliamentary approval to deploy military equipment and forces to Saudi Arabia to defend against Houthi strikes.
一位熟悉巴德尔协议内容的土耳其消息人士称,所有四个国家都将参与防御装备的生产并贡献研究。在资金方面,几位分析师指出,卡塔尔可能是支持武器生产的首选伙伴,以此换取更快获得土耳其开发的武器。
A Turkish source familiar with the content of the Badr agreement said all four countries will be involved in defense equipment production and will contribute research. In terms of funding, several analysts pointed to Qatar as possibly the go-to partner to back arms production, in exchange for quicker access to weaponry developed by Turkey.
伦敦智库皇家联合军事研究所(Royal United Services Institute)中东、北非和土耳其项目负责人兼高级研究员布尔库·奥兹切利克(Burcu Ozcelik)表示:“土耳其很可能会满足卡塔尔一些最紧迫的防务需求,正如美伊冲突期间所暴露的那样,包括提供以及可能最终联合生产低空防空系统和反无人机技术。”
"It is likely that Turkey could meet some of Qatar's most pressing defense requirements, as exposed during the U.S.-Iran conflict, including the provision and possible eventual joint production of low-altitude air defense systems and counter-drone technologies," said Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow and head of the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey Program at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London.
她表示,人们认为美国在补充某些库存方面速度较慢,但也指出,地区合同的总价值无法与卡塔尔对美防务采购协议的价值相比。
She said the U.S. is seen to be slower in replenishing some stockpiles, but also pointed out that regional contracts do not add up to the value of Qatar's defense procurement deal with the U.S.
尽管如此,中东全球事务委员会高级非常驻研究员、卡塔尔大学伊恩·卡尔敦中心助理教授阿里·巴基尔(Ali Bakir)表示,巴德尔条约“解决了西方产出在满足对防御性拦截器日益增长的需求方面的局限性”。
Nonetheless, the Badr pact "addresses the limitations of Western outputs in meeting the increasing demand for defensive interceptors," said Ali Bakir, a senior nonresident fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs and assistant professor at Qatar University's Ibn Khaldon Center.
土耳其的低空防空系统已在几个海湾国家使用。在此基础上,该国最近推出了“钢穹”(Steel Dome),旨在最终在不同高度建立多层综合防空网。
Turkey's low altitude air defense systems are already in use in several Gulf countries. Adding to those, it recently launched its Steel Dome aimed at eventually developing a multilayered integrated air defense umbrella at various altitudes.
对于最大的穆斯林国家印度尼西亚而言,在成为土耳其制造的KAAN战斗机的首个国际客户之后,该协议为其深化与安卡拉和伊斯兰堡的防务合作提供了机遇。雅加达还与土耳其达成了一项购买导弹、无人机、坦克和护卫舰的协议。
For Indonesia, the largest Muslim country, the agreement provides an opportunity to deepen defense cooperation with Ankara and Islamabad after it became the first international customer of the Turkish-produced KAAN fighter jet. Jakarta also has a deal to buy missiles, drones, tanks and frigates from Turkey.
但拉哈迪安表示,巴德尔条约的伙伴必须视印度尼西亚不仅为最终用户,而且为平等伙伴,这对其实业才有意义。该协议还必须符合包括国营企业和私营公司在内的国内制造商的能力和就绪状态。
But Badr pact partners must treat Indonesia not just as an end-user but an equal for it to be meaningful for its industry, said Rahadian. The pact must also match the capabilities and readiness of domestic manufacturers, including state-owned enterprises and private companies.
他说:“确保印度尼西亚的参与不仅停留在简单的组装或基本零部件的生产上至关重要,”并补充说,参与应逐步增强技术技能、技术专长和国内工程能力。
"It is crucial to ensure that Indonesia's involvement does not stop at simple assembly or the production of basic components," he said, adding that participation should progressively strengthen technical skills, technological expertise and domestic engineering capacity.
对于拥有超过66万人口、军队规模大于土耳其的核武器国家巴基斯坦而言,成为这两项协议的伙伴有助于塑造其作为穆斯林世界领导者的形象。
For Pakistan, a nuclear power with an army larger than Turkey's at over 660,000 people, being a partner in both agreements helps to project its image as a leader in the Muslim world.
沙哈布说:“我们最近通过其成为和平委员会成员、与科威特和沙特阿拉伯的双边防务协议、在美伊之间的斡旋、三边协议以及现在的四边防务条约,看到了这一点。”
"We have recently seen this through its membership in the Board of Peace, bilateral defense agreements with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, mediation between the United States and Iran, trilateral agreements, and now a quadrilateral defense pact," Shahab said.
一名巴基斯坦官员表示,巴基斯坦的武装部队及其军事能力“受到海湾国家的高度追捧”。该官员补充说:“我们的海湾盟友在危机时期总是向我们伸出援手。巴基斯坦将在力所能及的范围内,竭尽全力协助防御海湾盟友。即使这意味着加入多个军事同盟。”一些分析人士表示,这两项协议稍后有可能合并为一个大的合作协议。
A Pakistani official reflected that Pakistan's armed forces and its military capabilities are "in high demand from Gulf countries." The official added: "Our Gulf allies have always come to our help during times of crisis. Pakistan will go to all possible extents, within its means, to help defend its Gulf allies. Even if it results in joining multiple military alliances." There is a chance that the two pacts could merge into one big cooperation agreement later on, some analysts said.
阿德南·阿米尔(Adnan Aamir)是特约撰稿人。伊斯米·达玛扬蒂(Ismi Damayanti)亦有贡献。
Adnan Aamir is a contributing writer. Additional reporting by Ismi Damayanti.