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委内瑞拉民众走上街头要求民主Venezuelans Take to the Streets to Demand Democracy

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数千名抗议者周四下午走上委内瑞拉街头,要求举行总统选举,并呼吁流亡在外的诺贝尔奖得主、反对派领导人玛丽亚·科里娜·马查多回国。

Thousands of protesters took to the streets in Venezuela on Thursday afternoon to demand presidential elections and call for the return of exiled Nobel Prize-winning opposition leader María Corina Machado.

在首都加拉加斯,抗议者聚集在委内瑞拉广场,要求尽早安排总统选举,最早定于2027年举行,并释放该国所有政治犯。

In the capital, Caracas, protesters gathered in Plaza Venezuela and called for presidential elections to be scheduled as early as 2027, as well as the release of all political prisoners in the country.

据独立本地新闻机构“萤火虫效应”报道,参加抗议的前国会议员皮耶罗·马伦表示:“我们将很快举行总统选举,由玛丽亚·科里娜担任总统。”由马查多领导的活动团体“委内瑞拉前进”发起了此次抗议,导致加拉加斯部分街道封闭。新埃斯帕尔塔州、塔奇拉州和苏利亚州也举行了抗议活动。

“We will have presidential elections very soon with María Corina as president,” said former congressman Piero Maroun, who attended the protests, according to independent local news organization Efecto Cocuyo. The Machado-led activist group Vente Venezuela spearheaded the protests, which led to the closure of some streets in Caracas. Others also staged protests in the states of Nueva Esparta, Táchira, and Zulia.

代理总统德尔西·罗德里格斯所属的执政党——委内瑞拉统一社会党,也在加拉加斯反对派示威者附近举行了一场集会,不过是为了乳腺癌防治月的妇女游行。

The ruling party that acting President Delcy Rodríguez belongs to, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, also staged a gathering near the opposition demonstrators in Caracas, though for a women’s march for Breast Cancer Awareness Month.

据国际公民社会联盟“公民社会观察”称,自尼古拉斯·马杜罗总统任期被迫结束以来,抗议已成为不满的委内瑞拉人的常态。马杜罗及其前任乌戈·查韦斯曾严厉镇压政治异见。但自马杜罗于1月被美军驱逐以来,抗议者走上街头的频率“日益增加”,该组织引用委内瑞拉社会冲突观察站的数据称,仅9月一月就记录了1101起抗议活动,即每天约37场示威。不过,这些抗议不一定规模巨大。

Protesting has become common for disgruntled Venezuelans since the forced end of Nicolás Maduro’s presidency. Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chávez heavily cracked down on political dissent. But since Maduro’s removal in January by U.S. forces, protesters have taken to the streets “with increasing frequency,” according to the international civil society alliance CIVICUS, citing data from the Venezuelan Observatory of Social Conflict, which recorded 1,101 protests during just the month of September, or about 37 demonstrations per day. These protests, however, have not necessarily been large.

直到本周。路透社将周四的抗议描述为“近两年来首次全国性反对派抗议”,其发生时间与反对派总统初选三周年相吻合,马查多在该初选中获胜。

Until this week. The Thursday protests, which Reuters described as “the first nationwide opposition protest in nearly two years,” coincided with the third anniversary of the opposition’s presidential primary elections, in which Machado emerged victorious.

马查多仍是反对派在向民主政府过渡过程中最显眼的领军人物:在为彭博新闻社进行的 AtlasIntel 民调中,马查多获得 52% 的支持率,而罗德里格斯仅得 19%。但马查多面临的任务依然艰巨。

Machado is still the opposition’s most prominent figurehead in the transition toward a democratic government: in an AtlasIntel survey conducted for Bloomberg News, Machado received 52% support, compared with 19% for Rodríguez. But Machado has her work cut out for her.

抗议活动发生之际,罗德里格斯正在委内瑞拉总统府内与迪诺拉·菲格拉会面。菲格拉是美国国务院支持的反对派代表,正参与政治过渡谈判。美国支持委内瑞拉政府与菲格拉派系进行的三轮会谈,迄今未能就选举达成协议。

The protests also happened as Rodríguez met with Dinorah Figuera, the opposition representative backed by the U.S. State Department in negotiations for a political transition, inside the Venezuelan presidential palace. The three rounds of U.S.-backed talks between the Venezuelan government and Figuera’s faction have yet to yield an agreement on elections.

据《国家报》报道,会后罗德里格斯在一份声明中似乎提到了反对派抗议,用西班牙语表示:“仍有一些非常、非常小的群体在抵抗,他们认为试图让国家陷入火海、封锁街道是委内瑞拉前进的道路。我认同那些通过这场对话推动必要变革的好委内瑞拉人。”

In a statement reported by El País after the meeting, Rodríguez appeared to reference the opposition protests, saying in Spanish: “There are still very, very small groups that resist and believe that trying to set the country ablaze and block streets is the way for Venezuela to move forward. I recognize the good Venezuelans who, through this dialogue, are promoting necessary changes.”

自 1 月在一次非同寻常的军事行动中逮捕马杜罗以来,美国一直在与由罗德里格斯领导的临时政府合作,罗德里格斯曾是马杜罗的副手。罗德里格斯和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普都表示,该国最终将举行选举,尽管特朗普 9 月底对《时代周刊》说:“现在局势太原始了,你知道,我只觉得时机还不成熟。” 为何选举迟迟未能定期?

Since arresting Maduro in an extraordinary military operation in January, the U.S. has been working with an interim government led by Rodríguez, Maduro’s former deputy. Rodríguez and U.S. President Donald Trump both have said elections will eventually be held in the country, though Trump told TIME in late September: “It’s so raw now, you know that I just think it’s too soon.”Why has an election not yet been scheduled?

马杜罗倒台后的政府于 8 月与由菲格拉领导的反对派派系展开会谈,菲格拉是委内瑞拉 2015 年国民议会议长,旨在帮助该国实现民主过渡。但预计变革需要时间。

The post-Maduro government opened talks in August with the opposition faction led by Figuera, the president of Venezuela’s 2015 National Assembly, to help the country achieve a democratic transition. But the changes are expected to take time.

国内反对派和国际观察人士长期以来严厉批评马杜罗在2018年和2024年的连选连任缺乏透明度和公正性,对结果提出异议,并主张马查多的代理人埃德蒙多·冈萨雷斯·乌鲁蒂亚在后者中实际获胜。这引发了对最高法院和委内瑞拉国家选举委员会独立性的质疑,这两个机构均由政权忠诚者把持。

Domestic opposition and international observers have long slammed Maduro’s 2018 and 2024 re-elections for lacking transparency and fairness, disputing the results and arguing that Machado’s proxy, Edmundo González Urrutia, actually won in the latter. This raised questions about the independence of the Supreme Court and Venezuela’s National Electoral Council, which have been packed with loyalists of the regime.

为了过渡,建制派和反对派正试图敲定改革法院和委员会的细节。即使做到这一点,专家告诉路透社,当局仍需更新选民名册,并确保各党派能就后续选举如何运作达成共识。

For the transition, the establishment and the opposition are trying to iron out details of reforming the court and the council. Even if this happens, experts told Reuters that authorities will still need to update voter rolls and ensure that parties can reach a consensus on how subsequent elections would work.

6月袭击委内瑞拉的两次地震造成严重破坏,也使该国走向稳定的努力更加复杂化。

The twin earthquakes that struck Venezuela in June and caused extensive damage also complicated efforts toward stability in the country.

但美国也设定了一些先决条件,可能影响选举能多快举行。特朗普总统和国务卿鲁比奥概述称,他们寻求在委内瑞拉实现稳定、经济复苏和民族和解,此外还要实现政治过渡。《Axios》报道称,这是一个多步骤过程:改变法院组成、改革选举委员会,然后宣布选举日期。鲁比奥还宣布了其他要求,包括真正自由的新闻媒体。

But the U.S. has also set certain prerequisites that could affect how soon elections could happen. President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined that they seek stabilization, economic recovery, and national reconciliation in Venezuela, on top of a political transition. Axios reported that it’s a multi-step process: change the court makeup, reform the electoral commission, and then announce an election date. Rubio also announced other requirements, including a truly free press.

“如果有人当选,却继承了一场彻底的灾难——经济和社会层面的灾难,那么整个项目就会陷入危险,因为现在什么事都可能发生,这才会威胁委内瑞拉一个持久的共和国,”鲁比奥在9月23日特朗普与罗德里格斯在纽约会晤后表示。“我们想同时做两件事。”批评人士认为,特朗普政府的立场将马查多领导的反对派阵营边缘化,转而优先考虑石油协议和经济稳定,而非委内瑞拉的民主过渡。

“What would threaten an enduring republic in Venezuela would be that someone is elected and they inherit a complete catastrophe, economic and social, and then the whole project is endangered because now anything can happen,” Rubio said on Sept. 23, following Trump’s meeting with Rodríguez in New York. “We want to do two things at the same time.”Critics argue that the Trump Administration’s position sidelines the opposition faction led by Machado and instead prioritizes oil agreements and economic stabilization over Venezuela’s democratic transition.

8月,特朗普宣布华盛顿同意与加拉加斯达成一项协议,称这将使美国获得对超过650亿桶石油储备的多数控制权,约占委内瑞拉石油储备的五分之一。

In August, Trump announced that Washington agreed to a deal with Caracas, saying it would give the U.S. majority control over more than 65 billion barrels or about a fifth of Venezuela’s oil reserves.

巴西佩洛塔斯联邦大学政治学教授达亚娜·费尔南德斯-马托斯上个月告诉西班牙广播电视台(RTVE),委内瑞拉大选并非特朗普的优先事项,因为他的“主要利益在于石油,以及控制世界最大已探明原油储备的地缘政治权力。”

Dhayana Fernández-Matos, a professor of political science at the Federal University of Pelotas in Brazil, told Spain’s broadcaster RTVE last month that an election in Venezuela is not a priority for Trump, as his “primary interest lies in oil and the geopolitical power of controlling the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves.”

《时代》杂志9月对特朗普的采访暗示,美国可能因经济利益而倾向于推迟大选:在表示委内瑞拉现在举行大选为时过早后,总统说,“我们赚了很多钱,但委内瑞拉也赚了很多钱,我们完全控制着他们所有人。”

TIME’s September interview with Trump hinted at the U.S.’s potential financial bias for a delayed election: after saying that it would be too soon for Venezuela to hold an election, the President said, “A lot of money is being made by us, but a lot of money is also being made by Venezuela, and we have complete control of all of them.”

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