华盛顿——在中期选举前的最后几周，特朗普总统一直试图说服选民，在他执政期间经济正在蓬勃发展。
WASHINGTON—In the final weeks before the midterms, President Trump has been trying to convince voters that the economy is booming on his watch.
“你们人均收入比我国历史上任何时候都要高，”他在上周亚利桑那州布尔黑德城的集会上对人群说道。据统计，自7月中旬以来，C-SPAN电视网至少已有84次播出他谈论经济的画面。
“You’re making more money per individual than at any time in the history of our country,” he told a crowd last week in Bullhead City, Ariz., rally. It was at least the 84th time since mid-July that C-Span broadcast him discussing the economy.
但根据《华尔街日报》对数千个TikTok视频、播客节目、有线新闻片段以及最激烈国会竞选中投放的电视广告的分析，除了他自己的集会之外，他的这一论调几乎到处引来的批评多于支持。在《华尔街日报》审查的TikTok切片中，质疑特朗普经济主张的视频数量是支持视频的约16倍，而在势均力敌的竞选中，共和党广告谈论经济时几乎不提及他。
But his message is drawing more criticism than support almost everywhere else, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of thousands of TikTok videos, podcast episodes, cable-news segments and TV ads running in the most competitive congressional races. On the slice of TikTok reviewed by the Journal, videos disputing Trump’s economic claims outnumber supportive ones about 16 to one, and Republican ads in close races barely mention him when they talk about the economy.
随着国会控制权悬而未决，最胶着竞选中的共和党人正在减少对总统的提及。共和党正在捍卫其在众议院微弱的多数优势和参议院53比47的优势，因此风向的微小变动就可能让民主党夺得一院或两院的控制权，随之获得传票权力并得以阻挠总统的议程。
With control of Congress up for grabs, Republicans in the closest races are talking less about the president. The GOP is defending a slim House majority and a 53-47 Senate edge, so a modest swing could hand Democrats one or both chambers, along with subpoena power and the ability to stall the president’s agenda.
这种转变在经济议题上最为明显：《华尔街日报》发现，在54个最具竞争力的众议院和参议院竞选中，仅有一条谈论经济的共和党广告提到了特朗普，而根据AdImpact的数据，约五分之一的民主党经济广告点名了他。
The shift is starkest on the economy: In the 54 most competitive House and Senate races, only one Republican ad on the topic mentions Trump, the Journal found, while Democratic economy ads name him in about one in five spots, according to AdImpact data.
《华尔街日报》最近的一项民调显示，半数无大学学历的白人选民——这一群体曾助推特朗普赢得第二个任期——认为他的经济政策让经济变得更糟，仅28%的人认为政策让经济变得更好。劳工部本月公布，截至9月的12个月里，消费者价格上涨了3.7%，涨幅较8月的3.4%有所加快。
Half of white voters without a college degree—a bloc that helped propel Trump to a second term—say his economic policies made the economy worse, while only 28% say they made it better, a recent Journal poll shows. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months through September, accelerating from 3.4% in August, the Labor Department said this month.
《华尔街日报》审视了自6月下旬以来发布的2万多条提及特朗普和经济的TikTok视频。其中约6250条实质性地讨论了他在演讲中经常重复的九项经济主张中的至少一项。汽油价格——目前全国平均约为每加仑4.27美元——是这些视频中超过三分之一的主题，且大多数视频反驳了他的说法。自8月以来，特朗普还承诺，一旦与伊朗的战争结束，能源价格将“非常迅速”下跌。
The Journal examined more than 20,000 TikTok videos posted since late June that mentioned Trump and the economy. About 6,250 substantively discussed at least one of nine economic claims he often repeats in speeches. Gas prices—now averaging about $4.27 a gallon nationally—are the subject of more than a third of those, and most of them dispute him. Since August, Trump has also promised that energy prices will fall “very rapidly” once the war with Iran ends.
其他经济言论的反响也很差。在1081条关于他“关税正在带来由其他国家支付的资金”这一主张的TikTok视频中，只有31条附和或为其辩护。他承诺如果共和党控制国会，将向每位成年公民发放5000美元的“特朗普红利”，引发的批评声量是支持声量的近九倍。而他“物价正在下降”这一主张是《华尔街日报》追踪的九项主张中反响最差的一项：2810条相关视频中，仅有58条持正面态度。
Other economic rhetoric fared poorly. Among the 1,081 TikTok videos about his claim that tariffs are bringing in money paid by other countries, only 31 echoed or defended it. His pledge of a $5,000 “Trump dividend” for every adult citizen if Republicans hold Congress drew nearly nine times as much criticism as support. And his claim that prices are coming down was the worst received of the nine claims the Journal tracked: Just 58 of 2,810 videos were positive.
针对《华尔街日报》的报道，白宫发言人表示：“这类报道证明，记者们宁愿在社交媒体上‘厄运浏览’，也不愿报道特朗普总统为修复乔·拜登留下的经济烂摊子所取得的进展。” TikTok已成为许多美国成年人的常规新闻来源。根据皮尤研究中心的数据，在18至29岁的美国人中，约有四成表示他们定期在那里获取新闻。
In response to the Journal’s reporting, a White House spokesman said: “Stories like this one prove that reporters would rather doomscroll social media than report on the progress President Trump has made to fix the economic mess that Joe Biden left behind.”TikTok has become a regular news source for many U.S. adults. Among Americans age 18 to 29, around four in 10 say they regularly get their news there, according to the Pew Research Center.
这使该平台成为了政治信息在关键选民群体中传播情况的早期观察窗口。民调和广告数据表明，《华尔街日报》所审视视频中表现出的不满情绪超出了这些视频本身的范围，尽管该分析并未涵盖TikTok的全部内容或其他平台。
That makes the platform an early read on how political messages are spreading among a key subset of the electorate. Polling and ad data suggest the disapproval in the videos the Journal reviewed reaches beyond the clips, though the analysis didn’t cover all of TikTok or other platforms.
这一模式出现在最接近的众议院和参议院竞选的政治广告中，共和党人并未推销总统的经济，有些甚至承认民众的困难。得克萨斯州共和党参议员候选人肯·帕克斯顿的一则广告称：“杂货、租金、保险，一切都在不断上涨。”（当然，该广告将责任归咎于“自由派政客”使情况更糟。）民主党的经济广告主要关于可负担性和汽油价格。
The pattern shows up in political ads in the closest House and Senate races, where Republicans aren’t selling the president’s economy, and some even acknowledge the hardship. An ad from Ken Paxton, the Texas Republican running for Senate, says, “groceries, rent, insurance, it all keeps climbing.” (To be sure, that ad blames “liberal politicians” for making it worse.) Democrats’ economic ads are mostly about affordability and gas prices.
一则由亲民主党的WinSenate投放的400万美元广告，攻击密歇根州共和党参议院候选人迈克·罗杰斯，列举了罗杰斯欢呼的政策中包括“让我们所有人都付出代价的特朗普关税”。
A $4 million ad from Democratic-aligned WinSenate attacking Mike Rogers, the Republican Senate nominee in Michigan, lists “Trump’s tariffs that are costing us all” among the policies Rogers has cheered.
对特朗普来说，有一个相对的亮点：他声称新的工厂投资正在创造就业。这一说法在TikTok上的九项说法中受到的批评最少，也是唯一一个共和党在电视广告上的支出超过民主党的主要经济主题，支出为6670万美元，而民主党为4200万美元。保守派播客主持人也接受了这一说法：他们讨论该说法时，88%持支持态度。
There’s one relative bright spot for Trump: his claim that new factory investment is creating jobs. It drew the least criticism of any of the nine claims on TikTok, and it’s the only major economic theme on which Republicans outspend Democrats on TV ads, $66.7 million to $42.0 million. Conservative podcast hosts embraced it, too: 88% of their discussions of the claim were supportive.
在播客上，一些支持特朗普的声音已经转冷。从6月下旬到7月中旬，《华尔街日报》审查的124个保守派节目主持人，以大约两比一的比例支持特朗普关于汽油和消费品价格下降的说法。在过去四周中，他们意见平分，批评略微领先。在所追踪的九项说法中，支持性节目与批评性节目的比例从大约2.8比1下降到大约1.7比1。
On podcasts, some Trump-friendly voices have cooled. From late June to mid-July, hosts on 124 conservative shows reviewed by the Journal backed his claims of falling gas and consumer prices by a margin of about two to one. Over the past four weeks they have split evenly, with criticism now edging ahead. Across all nine claims tracked, the ratio of supportive to critical episodes fell from about 2.8 to 1 to about 1.7 to 1.
主持人仍然大力支持特朗普关于减税、药品价格和创造就业投资的夸耀，但在价格和汽油方面，支持与批评的节目大致各占一半。《华尔街日报》早前的一项分析发现，保守派播客主持人在中期选举前夕总体上谈论特朗普的次数减少了。
Hosts still overwhelmingly back his boasts on tax cuts, drug prices and job-creating investment, but on prices and gas, episodes are roughly split between support and criticism. An earlier analysis by the Journal found that conservative podcasters were talking less about Trump overall in the run-up to the midterms.
在有线电视节目中，人们对这一事件的看法因电视台的不同而有所差异。在 MS NOW 电视台播出的 634 个关于他的言论的报道中，没有一个表示支持他的观点；相反，CNN 的报道几乎完全持反对态度（支持与反对的比例约为 1:9）。而福克斯新闻（Fox News）的报道中，支持他观点的次数是质疑他观点次数的三倍。
On cable, the verdict depends on the channel. Among 634 MS NOW segments about his claims, none was supportive. CNN’s coverage ran about nine to one against. Fox News segments backed his claims about three times as often as they disputed them.
如需联系杰克·吉勒姆（Jack Gillum），请发送邮件至 jack.gillum@wsj.com；如需联系杰奎琳·杰弗里-威伦斯基（Jaclyn Jeffrey-Wilensky），请发送邮件至 jjw@wsj.com。
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