今年两场关键参议院初选中，一些把票投给落败候选人的选民仍在纠结是否要在选举日支持本党提名人，这对明年谁掌控参议院多数席位有着重大影响。密歇根州民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德和得克萨斯州共和党人肯·帕克斯顿都在试图在激烈的初选之后，为各自党派的战场竞选重新团结阵营。两个焦点小组——一个由曾支持民主党众议员海莉·史蒂文斯失败的参议院竞选的人士组成，另一个由在初选中支持共和党参议员约翰·科宁的得州人组成——揭示了部分普通选民如何在个人对提名人的担忧与对党忠诚的愿望之间艰难取舍。
Some voters who backed losing candidates in two key Senate primaries this year are still wrestling with whether to support their party’s nominee on Election Day, with massive implications for who controls the Senate majority next year. Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Texas Republican Ken Paxton are both trying to stitch their parties back together for battleground races after divisive primaries. Two focus groups — one with Michiganders who supported Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens’ unsuccessful Senate bid, and another with Texans who backed Republican Sen. John Cornyn in that primary — reveal how some rank-and-file voters are struggling to process personal concerns about the nominees alongside a desire to be loyal to their party.
这两个焦点小组由雪城大学以及研究公司Engagious和Sago制作，并由NBC新闻旁听观察。结果显示，科宁的选民认为帕克斯顿腐败，但又犹豫是否要把一个参议院席位拱手让给民主党人。在密歇根州，史蒂文斯的选民则担心埃尔-赛义德是否过于极端——一些人表示他们对他的穆斯林信仰及其忠诚对象感到担忧。这两种说法都呼应了他们在大选中的对手——密歇根州共和党参议院提名人、前众议员迈克·罗杰斯和得克萨斯州民主党参议院提名人、州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科——试图给他们塑造的形象。
The focus groups, produced by Syracuse University and the research firms Engagious and Sago and observed by NBC News, showed Cornyn voters who see Paxton as corrupt but are hesitant to hand Democrats a Senate seat. In Michigan, the Stevens voters worried about whether El-Sayed is too extreme — and some said they were concerned about his Muslim faith and his allegiances. Both narratives echo how their general election opponents — former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican Senate nominee in Michigan, and state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic Senate nominee in Texas — have sought to define them.
“我左右为难。在这种情况下，我真的觉得自己是在两害相权取其轻，而我不确定哪一个更轻，”来自得克萨斯州科马尔县62岁的共和党人凯瑟琳·S说。与民调不同——民调使用统计方法来展示更大群体的感受——焦点小组则深入探究少数几个人对关键问题的具体看法。在这两场90分钟的对话中，科宁的选民更愿意抛开对得克萨斯州总检察长帕克斯顿的道德担忧。
“I’m split down the middle. In this instance, I really feel that I am looking at the lesser of two evils and I’m not sure which that is,” said Kathleen S., a 62-year-old Republican from Comal County in Texas. Unlike a poll, which uses statistical methods to demonstrate how a larger population feels, focus groups dig into deeper detail about how a handful of people feel about key questions. In these two 90-minute conversations, the Cornyn voters were more open to looking past ethical concerns about Paxton, the Texas attorney general.
与此同时，在史蒂文斯市的选民中，独立选民的比例较高；这些选民对于支持埃尔-赛义德（El-Sayed）这一前密歇根州公共卫生官员的意愿较为犹豫。参与讨论的Engagious公司总裁里奇·陶（Rich Thau）表示：“在密歇根州，我注意到那些尚未做出决定的选民对埃尔-赛义德越来越感到不安；而在德克萨斯州，一些原本支持塔拉里科（Talarico）的选民为了表达对共和党的忠诚而改变了自己的选择。”
The Stevens voters, meanwhile, included more political independents, and they were more hesitant to back El-Sayed, a former public health official in Michigan. “In Michigan, I heard undecided Stevens voters growing nervous with El-Sayed, and in Texas I heard Cornyn voters abandoning their preferred candidate, Talarico, in order to put loyalty to the GOP first,” said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the groups.
这些尚未做出决定的选民在努力为自己的决定找借口时显得非常纠结，因为他们担心自己日后会后悔这个决定。
“These undecided voters truly contorted themselves as they struggled to justify a choice they feared they’d later regret.”
这组由七名史蒂文斯市初选选民组成的讨论小组并非坚定的民主党支持者——其中五人为独立选民（其中四人曾在2024年投票给唐纳德·特朗普），两人是民主党成员。他们对埃尔-赛义德的犹豫态度，或许反映了普通选民在选举中的真实想法，而非民主党基层选民的普遍立场。不过在这七人中，只有两人表示倾向于投票给埃尔-赛义德；另外两名民主党选民则在埃尔-赛义德和罗杰斯（Rogers）之间难以抉择。史蒂文斯本人也公开表示支持埃尔-赛义德。
Worries about El-Sayed The group of seven Stevens primary voters were not dyed-in-the-wool Democrats. The group included five independents (four of whom voted for President Donald Trump in 2024) and two Democrats. Their hesitance about El-Sayed may reflect how general election swing voters are digesting their choice, rather than the Democratic base. But overall, only two of those seven said they were leaning toward voting for El-Sayed. The two Democratic voters split between El-Sayed and Rogers. Stevens herself has endorsed El-Sayed.
29岁的艾萨克·W（Isaac W）来自奥克兰县，他在2024年投票给了当时的副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris），他表示自己更倾向于罗杰斯，但希望其他州的选举结果能导致民主党控制参议院。他认为埃尔-赛义德的胜选“几乎不可避免”，并希望通过自己的投票传达一个信息：像埃尔-赛义德这样的政治人物并不像国务卿乔斯林·本森（Jocelyn Benson）那样受到选民的欢迎。
Isaac W., a 29-year-old Democrat from Oakland County who voted for then-Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, said he is leaning toward Rogers but hopes other states deliver a Democratic-controlled Senate. Isaac views an El-Sayed victory as “almost inevitable” and is hoping to send a message with his vote that El-Sayed’s brand of politics isn’t as popular with voters as other Democrats like Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who is running for governor.
艾萨克说：“我希望人们通过选举结果看到，埃尔-赛义德的得票率远远落后于本森，从而明白：对于大多数问题来说，一个立场稳健的民主党人才是更好的选择；而那些年轻、有魅力但行为不端、喜欢与极端分子打交道且不愿回答选民问题的政治人物，最终很难取得成功。”
“I want people to see when they look at the election results that El-Sayed was running far behind Benson, so they can see that a normal Democrat is going to be the better choice for most things, and that a young, charismatic, slippery politician who will flirt with extremists and not answer questions is not going to succeed as well,” he said.
艾萨克表示，埃尔-赛义德回应了他最关心的问题，即人工智能兴起带来的“生存风险”，并且他明白参议院中更多的民主党选票将对特朗普形成制衡，他形容特朗普政府腐败。但在批评埃尔-赛义德过于极端的同时，艾萨克赞扬了罗杰斯最近决定在关税问题上与特朗普决裂，称这改变了他对这位共和党人的看法。“在那之前，我认为他只是一个步调一致的共和党人，像其他所有人一样追随特朗普的脚步，但后来他愿意说出真实且显而易见的情况，我因此尊重他，”他说。
Isaac said El-Sayed has addressed his top concern, the “existential risk” prompted by the rise in artificial intelligence, and he understands that more Democratic votes in the Senate would push back on Trump, whose administration he described as corrupt. But while criticizing El-Sayed as too extreme, Isaac praised Rogers’ recent decision to break with Trump on tariffs, saying it helped to change his mind about the Republican. “Up to that point, I thought he was just a lockstep Republican following Trump’s lead like all the rest of them, but then he was willing to say what is true and obvious, and I respect him for that,” he said.
64岁的民主党人丹尼·S.持不同意见，并坚定支持埃尔-赛义德。“他似乎比罗杰斯更透明。我认为罗杰斯只是趁机跳出来，纯粹是个投机分子，”他说，并补充道，罗杰斯“上一次什么也没做”，指的是这位共和党人七届众议员任期于2014年结束。五位支持史蒂文斯的独立选民中有四位表示倾向于支持罗杰斯。他们觉得埃尔-赛义德太极端，这呼应了罗杰斯及其盟友花费数千万美元在电视广告中反复抨击的信息。
Danny S., a 64-year-old Democrat, disagreed and emphatically backed El-Sayed. “He seems more transparent than Rogers does. I think Rogers is just jumping on, just an opportunist,” he said, before adding that Rogers “didn’t do nothing last time,” a reference to the Republican’s seven-term stint in the House that ended in 2014. Four of the five pro-Stevens independents said they’re leaning toward backing Rogers. They felt El-Sayed was too extreme, echoing the message that Rogers and his allies have spent tens of millions of dollars to hammer on the airwaves.
“埃尔-赛义德永远得不到我的选票。他太极端了，我们不需要华盛顿再多一个极端分子，尤其是来自我曾经所属的民主党。我只是认为罗杰斯是更好的候选人，”52岁的独立选民希瑟·S.说，她在2024年投了特朗普的票。36岁的独立选民布列塔尼·E.也在2024年投了特朗普的票，她表示，虽然她之前倾向于埃尔-赛义德，但此后转而更倾向于罗杰斯，因为她不确定埃尔-赛义德是否能发挥作用。
“El-Sayed would never get my vote. He’s way too extremist and we don’t need another extremist in Washington, D.C., especially from the Democratic Party that I used to belong to. I just think Rogers is a better candidate,” said Heather S., a 52-year-old independent who voted for Trump in 2024. Brittany E., a 36-year-old independent who also voted for Trump, said that while she had previously been leaning toward El-Sayed, she’s since shifted more toward Rogers because she isn’t sure if El-Sayed can be effective.
她接着说，埃尔-赛义德在竞选中花费大量时间为自己辩护，以至于她不确定他相信什么，也不确定“他将如何带来改变”。“我只想告诉他，要更诚实，在面对批评时要更开放，不要生气，”她说。
She went on to add that El-Sayed has spent so much of the campaign defending himself from attacks that she isn’t sure what he believes or “how he’s going to make change.”“I would just tell him to be more honest and open to criticism without anger,” she said.
其中一些选民反复质疑埃勒-赛义德能否充分代表整个密歇根州——比如51岁的独立选民迈克尔·D，他在2024年支持哈里斯，如今却倾向于罗杰斯。“我觉得他有点，我不想说他是极端分子，因为他不是。我只是觉得他的观点基本上不能代表整个党，”他说。“我认为这是因为它更关注某一个特定群体，而不是基本上所有人，”迈克尔·D说，随后澄清他指的是美国穆斯林。
A handful of these voters repeatedly questioned whether El-Sayed would adequately represent all of Michigan — like Michael D., a 51-year-old independent voter who backed Harris in 2024 but is now leaning toward Rogers. “I think he’s kind of, I don’t want to say an extremist because he’s not. I think his just views are not basically representative of this entire party,” he said. “I think it’s because it’s more focused on one particular group where it’s not just basically the everybody,” Michael D. said, later clarifying that he was referring to Muslim Americans Michael D. was not the only voter to suggest that El-Sayed, who would be the first Muslim senator if elected, would not represent all Michiganders Heather S., a 52-year-old independent who voted for Trump in 2024, said she’s supporting Rogers because she believes he’s “not as extreme” and “even though he is a Trumpster, that maybe he can bring something else to the party, be able to work with both parties.”
迈克尔·D并非唯一暗示埃勒-赛义德不会代表所有密歇根州人的选民——埃勒-赛义德若当选，将成为首位穆斯林参议员。52岁的独立选民希瑟·S在2024年投票给特朗普，她说自己支持罗杰斯，因为她认为他“没那么极端”，而且“尽管他是个特朗普的人，但也许他能给党带来一些别的东西，能够与两党合作。”“我觉得埃勒-赛义德只会代表迪尔伯恩，”她说，指的是密歇根州这座穆斯林人口众多的城市。
“I think El-Sayed would just represent Dearborn,” she said, referencing the Michigan city with a significant Muslim population.
“我不是种族主义者。埃勒-赛义德给人的印象是他只想代表穆斯林，而不是整个密歇根社区——甚至不只是民主党，只是穆斯林社区，”她说。她随后补充道：“如果他当选，我们都需要他。他本可以团结我们，但我不认为他能做到。他太极端了，他会把大部分时间花在争取团结我们上，而那将是浪费时间。”其他人则对这一说法提出异议，包括54岁的独立选民金伯利·C，她投票给了特朗普，但表示今年倾向于埃勒-赛义德。
“I’m not racist. El-Sayed, he comes across as he just wants to represent the Muslims and not the whole Michigan community — not even just the Democratic Party, just the Muslim community,” she said. She then added: “We all need him if he gets in there. And he could unify us, but I don’t think he can. He’s too extreme and he’s going to spend most of his time fighting to unify us, and it’ll be a waste of time.”Others took issue with that framing, including Kimberly C., a 54-year-old independent who voted for Trump but says she’s leaning toward El-Sayed this year.
“我认为人们对他止步不前，是因为他是穆斯林，他们没有超越那个观点去看待他，或者当他们看他时，”她说。“这对我来说和2024年卡玛拉·哈里斯竞选时是一样的，在我看来，感觉很多人不想投给她只是因为她是有色人种，”金伯利·C继续说道。
“I think that people stop short with him because he’s Muslim and they’re not looking beyond that viewpoint, or when they look at him,” she said. “It’s the same thing for me as in 2024 when Kamala Harris ran, and to me, it felt like so many people didn’t want to vote for her just because she was Black,” Kimberly C. continued.
“所以我认为，我们需要超越种族主义和偏见，努力让国家团结起来。”党派因素把选民拉向帕克斯顿在得克萨斯州，这组参与者大多为共和党人，他们在共和党初选中曾支持科宁，如今则更倾向于与党派立场保持一致。“很明显，如果这些选民是根据候选人素质来投票，他们会更青睐塔拉里科。但他们对共和党的偏好和忠诚，或者与民主党的分歧，才是更大的区分因素，”锡拉丘兹大学民主、新闻与公民研究所所长玛格丽特·塔莱夫说。
“So I think we need to look beyond the racism and prejudice and try to unify the country.”Partisan pull toward Paxton In Texas, the mostly Republican group of participants who had supported Cornyn in the GOP primary were much more inclined to toe the party line. “It’s clear if they were voting based on candidate quality these voters would favor Talarico. But their preference for and loyalty to the Republican Party or differences with Democrats is the bigger differentiator,” Margaret Talev, director of the Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship at Syracuse University, which hosts the focus group project.
该研究所主办了这个焦点小组项目。这个小组包括五名共和党人，其中两人计划支持帕克斯顿，两人倾向于支持他，另有一人倾向于支持塔拉里科。小组中唯一的一名独立选民也计划支持塔拉里科。尤其是这些共和党人，对帕克斯顿过去的争议颇感纠结。他于2023年因贿赂和腐败指控被弹劾，最终被宣告无罪。2015年，他因与证券欺诈相关的指控被起诉，后与检察官达成协议，避免了审判。
The panel included five Republicans, with two planning to support Paxton and two leaning his way, while one was leaning toward backing Talarico. The lone independent voter in the panel is planning to support Talarico, as well. The Republicans, in particular, wrestled with Paxton’s past controversies. He was impeached in 2023 on bribery and corruption charges and ultimately acquitted. In 2015, he was indicted on charges related to securities fraud and avoided a trial after reaching an agreement with prosecutors.
他还正在办理离婚，妻子称她是以“圣经依据”为由与他分居。但对其中一些人来说，对所属政党的忠诚压过了这些丑闻。小组中的五名共和党人都表示，如果塔拉里科是共和党人，他们会支持他，这凸显了他们的党派归属感影响之大。“现在我很不好意思说（我会投票给）共和党，因为帕克斯顿有太多见不得人的事。而我就是没法让自己跨过这道栅栏，转投另一个政党，”来自塔兰特县、63岁的共和党人露丝·L说。
He is also going through a divorce, with his wife saying she was separating from him on “biblical grounds.”But for some of them, allegiance to their political party trumped those scandals. All five Republicans in the panel said they would back Talarico if he was a Republican, underscoring how their party affiliation loomed large. “Right now I’m embarrassed of saying [I will vote] Republican, because Paxton has so many skeletons in his closet. And I just can’t make myself jump the fence and go to the other party,” said Ruth L., a 63-year-old Republican from Tarrant County.
当被问及她想对正试图赢得她选票的塔拉里科说些什么时，露丝说：“换党吧。”来自科林县、67岁的共和党人史蒂夫·F说，他计划支持帕克斯顿，“主要是因为党派”，并对共和党可能失去参议院控制权表示担忧。
Asked for her message to Talarico as he tries to win her vote, Ruth said, “Change parties.”Steve F., a 67-year-old Republican from Collin County, said he was planning to back Paxton “mostly because of the party,” voicing concerns about the GOP losing control of the Senate.
“塔拉里科作为民主党人，他的价值观和我并不一样。至少这个党派的价值观和我不一样，”史蒂夫说，并指出他对塔拉里科过去在移民和性别问题上的言论有所担忧。“我确实尊重他这个人。我认为他很有正直品格。”另一些人对塔拉里科仍不确定，这位37岁的州议员在本轮选举周期中一举成名。凯瑟琳·S是一名共和党人，她在塔拉里科和帕克斯顿之间左右为难，认为这是在“两个恶人中选较轻的那个”，她形容帕克斯顿“非常腐败”，并担心塔拉里科只是在说选民想听的话。
“Talarico as a Democrat, he doesn’t share my same values. At least the party doesn’t share my values,” Steve said, noting he had concerns about Talarico’s past comments on immigration and gender. “I do respect him as a person. I think he has a lot of integrity.”Others were still unsure about Talarico, a 37-year-old state legislator who shot to prominence this election cycle. Kathleen S., the Republican who was torn between Talarico and Paxton as a choice between “the lesser of two evils,” described Paxton as “very corrupt” and raised concerns that Talarico is saying what voters want to hear.
“如果是今天，我大概会选帕克斯顿，因为我宁愿选我了解的那个恶人，也不选我不了解的那个恶人，”她说。但并非所有人都倾向于帕克斯顿。48岁的共和党人格雷格·D在2024年支持特朗普，他说自己倾向于支持塔拉里科。“咱们换个样子，来点不一样的，”他说。“我是说，我们多少已经那样做过了。我们跟着特朗普回到了老路，所以也许该来点新鲜血液，进去做点不一样的事。”
“If it was today, I would probably pick Paxton because I would rather go with the evil I know than the evil I don’t,” she said. But not everyone was leaning toward Paxton. Greg D., a 48-year-old Republican who supported Trump in 2024, said he is leaning toward supporting Talarico. “Let’s change it up, get something different,” he said. “I mean, we’ve kind of done that. We went back to the old with Trump, so just maybe some new fresh blood, get in there and do something different.”
格雷格·D还提到他会听乔·罗根的播客。虽然格雷格没有把塔拉里科和罗根联系起来，但塔拉里科确实在2025年上过这档播客，而且给主持人留下了深刻印象，罗根还鼓励塔拉里科竞选总统。唯一一位独立选民是来自科林县的丹妮尔·S，她说自己在2024年“勉强”投给了哈里斯，今年则参加了共和党参议院初选投票，因为她认为这场选举更重要。
Greg D. also noted he listens to Joe Rogan’s podcast. While Greg did not connect Talarico and Rogan, Talarico did appear on the podcast in 2025, impressing the host so much that Rogan encouraged Talarico to run for president. The lone independent voter, Danielle S. from Collin County, said she “begrudgingly” voted for Harris in 2024 and voted in the GOP Senate primary this year because she saw the race as more important.
她说，尽管她本人不信教，但塔拉里科作为一名长老会神学生谈论基督教的方式也吸引了她。“据我所知、所见、所听，塔拉里科就是正直的化身。几乎和肯·帕克斯顿完全相反。帕克斯顿不是一个正直的人，”丹妮尔·S谈到自己支持这名民主党人的决定时说。
She said that even though she herself is not religious, she was also drawn to how Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, talks about Christianity. “Talarico is, from what I know, what I’ve seen, what I’ve listened to, integrity on legs. Pretty much the opposite of what Ken Paxton is. He’s not a man of integrity,” Danielle S. said of her decision to support the Democrat.