虽然“男性圈层”兄弟们曾是2024年民调机构关注的当红人口群体，且他们依然是备受争取的选民板块，但很可能是女性将决定2026年中期选举的结果。女性的投票率始终高于男性。2018年大选——唐纳德·特朗普总统上一届任内的中期选举——出现了自1978年以来任何中期选举中最大的性别差距。民调专家和策略师总在询问女性想要什么，用特定诉求吸引她们，并把这一群体视为一个整体，甚至每选举年都赋予其专属绰号。
While manosphere bros were pollsters’ demographic du jour in 2024, and they continue to be a coveted voting bloc, it is women who will likely determine the outcome of the 2026 midterms. Women consistently vote at higher rates than men. The 2018 elections, President Donald Trump’s previous midterm, saw the largest gender gap of any midterm since 1978. Pollsters and strategists are always asking what women want, targeting them with specific appeals and treating the bloc as a monolith, complete with election-year monikers. (Weighted vest women, anyone?)
（“负重背心女性”，有人听说过吗？）但如果看看将决定中期选举结果的各州选民构成，显然不同群体的女性可能在决定胜负中发挥超大作用。以下是我关注的四类：密歇根州的黑人女性。如果民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在参议院竞选中败给前众议员迈克·罗杰斯，民主党夺回多数席位将变得非常困难，那需要翻转五个共和党把持的席位。
But if you look at the state electorates that will decide the outcome of the midterms, it’s clear that distinct groups of women could have an outsized role in deciding the winner. Here are four I’m watching: Black women in Michigan. If Democrat Abdul El-Sayed loses the Senate race to former Congressman Mike Rogers, it becomes very difficult for Democrats to win the majority, which would require flipping five GOP-held seats.
值得关注的人口群体是黑人女性。回顾一下，在卡玛拉·哈里斯2024年落选后，沮丧的黑人女性曾选择自我关怀而非政治参与。但情况已经改变。
The demographic to watch is Black women. Recall that in the aftermath of Kamala Harris’ 2024 defeat, dispirited Black women were choosing self-care over political engagement. Well, that’s changed.
《高地项目》9月对700名黑人女性进行的全国民调发现，77%有动力参加中期选举投票。据民调专家称，这是奥巴马时代以来的热情高度，源于在特朗普时代保护和捍卫自己社区的愿望。在经济上，黑人女性承受了特朗普政策的主要冲击，黑人女性失业率飙升。
A national poll of 700 Black women from The Highland Project in September found that 77% are motivated to vote in the midterms. This is Obama-era enthusiasm, according to the pollster, driven by a desire to protect and defend their communities in the Trump era. Economically, Black women have borne the brunt of Trump’s policies, and the unemployment rate for Black women has spiked.
罗杰斯正试图争取黑人选票，因为埃尔-赛义德在初选中对阵海利·史蒂文斯时，在黑人选民中的表现不佳。但罗杰斯将面临艰难战斗。2024年，18%的黑人男性但只有8%的黑人女性支持罗杰斯。要想这次获胜，他必须在黑人女性中表现得更好。
Rogers is making a play for the Black vote because El-Sayed underperformed among Black voters in his primary fight against Haley Stevens. But Rogers is going to face an uphill battle. In 2024, 18% of Black men but only 8% of Black women backed Rogers. To win this time, he’ll have to do better with Black women.
俄亥俄州的白人工人阶级女性。这个“七叶树州”拥有竞争激烈的参议员和州长选举。在州长选举中，一则卑鄙的广告搅动了选情和共和党阵营。共和党人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米花费数百万美元推广一则广告，广告中出现了民主党人艾米·阿克顿的生母——阿克顿12岁时，这位生母失去了对阿克顿的监护权，并曾指控阿克顿的继父性虐待。
White working-class women in Ohio. The Buckeye State has competitive Senate and governor’s races. In the governor’s race, a despicable ad has roiled the race and the GOP. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy has spent millions promoting an ad featuring Democrat Amy Acton’s estranged mother — who lost custody of Acton when the future candidate was 12 and had accused her stepfather of sexual abuse.
福克斯新闻在该广告播出前进行的一项民调显示，双方支持率打成平手，拉马斯瓦米50%对阿克顿48%，阿克顿在误差范围内领先。然而在同一民调中，在没有大学学历的白人女性中，阿克顿以44%对53%落后于拉马斯瓦米。拉马斯瓦米的广告将关注点，或许还有同情心，引向了阿克顿贫困潦倒的童年，她克服了这些磨难成为了一名医生。她应当大力宣扬自己逆境求生的动人故事，这与亿万富翁拉马斯瓦米形成鲜明对比，后者的肮脏政治手段凸显了其道德缺失。
A Fox News poll taken before the ad shows the race tied, 50% to 48%, with Acton holding a margin-of-error lead. Yet in the same poll, Acton lagged Ramaswamy 53% to 44% among White women without a college degree. Ramaswamy’s ad draws attention, and perhaps sympathy, to Acton’s squalid childhood, which she overcame to become a doctor. She should lean into her compelling story of surviving hardship, a stark contrast to the billionaire Ramaswamy whose dirty politics highlights a moral failing.
在参议员竞选中，同一民调还显示，前参议员谢罗德·布朗以52%对47%、五个百分点的优势领先现任参议员乔恩·赫斯特德。在非大学学历女性中，两人以49%打平，这显示出布朗与工人阶级选民长期以来的紧密联系。他的经济民粹主义品牌在俄亥俄州有着良好记录，他的优势有助于提升阿克顿在这一群体中的支持率。
In the Senate contest, the same poll also shows former Senator Sherrod Brown with a five-point edge over Senator Jon Husted, 52% to 47%. Among non-college women, the two are tied at 49%, a sign of Brown’s longstanding ties with working-class voters. His brand of economic populism has a good track record in Ohio and his strengths could help lift Acton with this group.
缅因州的年长女性。50至59岁的女性占缅因州居民的六分之一。正是这一群体在2020年挽救了现年73岁的参议员苏珊·柯林斯。关键问题是她们是否会再次这样做。《华盛顿波斯特》/沙尔学院的一项民调发现，在缅因州女性中，生活成本是最迫切的关切，44%的受访者点名该问题，这让柯林斯面临真正的弱势。该民调还发现，民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊在总体上和在女性选民中（52%对44%）均领先柯林斯。
Older women in Maine. Women between 50 and 59 make up 1 out of 6 Maine residents. This is the group that saved Senator Susan Collins, 73, in 2020. The key question is whether they will again. A Washington Post/Schar School poll found that among women in Maine, the cost of living is the most pressing concern, with 44% naming that issue, leaving Collins with a real vulnerability. The poll also found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Collins both overall and with women (52% to 44%).
杰克逊并非一位强有力的竞选者，但在其中一场辩论中，他抛出了几句有力的反驳，试图削弱柯林斯关于其经验价值的核心论点。当柯林斯谈到争取道路盐关税豁免时，他回应道：“我们不能吃道路盐。”（特朗普周五宣布进一步豁免关税，显示出共和党多么渴望赢得这场竞选。）杰克逊还抨击柯林斯支持最高法院大法官布雷特·卡瓦诺，后者投下了推翻堕胎权的关键一票。这表明，在重大议题上，她并非一位温和派——这一政治身份一直是她在这个蓝州取得成功的关键。
Jackson is not a strong campaigner, but had some good lines in one of the debates which sought to blunt Collins’ key argument about the value of her experience. “We can’t eat road salt,” he responded to Collins when she talked about getting tariff exemptions on road salt. (Trump, in a sign of how badly Republicans need to win this race, announced further tariff exemptions on Friday.) Jackson has also attacked Collins’ support for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who voted to overturn abortion rights. It shows that on the big issues, she hasn’t been a moderate, a political identity that has been key to her success in the blue state.
德克萨斯州的拉美裔女性。在竞选名单的最顶端，民主党州众议员吉娜·伊诺霍萨正在竞选，力争成为该州首位拉美裔女州长。民调显示伊诺霍萨与州长格雷格·阿博特的竞争十分胶着，不过考虑到阿博特的地面竞选机器和巨大的筹款优势，很难想象他会在争取第四个任务的竞选中失利。尽管如此，伊诺霍萨出现在竞选名单上可能会激励新选民，特别是拉美裔选民前往投票站。这可能有助于民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科在与共和党人肯·帕克斯顿的激烈参议院竞选中获胜。
Latinas in Texas. At the top of the ticket, Democratic State Representative Gina Hinojosa is running to become the state’s first Latina governor. Polls show a close race between Hinojosa and Governor Greg Abbott, though, and given Abbott’s ground game and massive fundraising edge, it’s hard to imagine him losing his bid for a fourth term. Still, Hinojosa’s presence on the ticket could drive new voters, particularly Latinos, to the polls. And that could help Democrat James Talarico in his tight Senate race against Republican Ken Paxton.
塔拉里科在三月的民主党初选中获胜，得益于拉美裔选民的支持，他们占选民的20%，其中60%投给了塔拉里科。最近的一项福克斯新闻民调显示，双方支持率均为49%，塔拉里科获得了64%的拉美裔选票，帕克斯顿获得34%。要比2018年参议院竞选中以微弱劣势落败的贝托·奥罗克更具竞争力，塔拉里科必须做得比这更好。特别是拉美裔女性可能会助他一臂之力，但前提是她们的投票率要比以往更高。
Talarico won the Democratic primary in March on the strength of Latino voters, who were 20% of the electorate and voted for Talarico at 60%. A recent Fox News poll, which has the race tied at 49%, shows Talarico getting 64% of the Latino vote, with Paxton at 34%. To be more competitive than Beto O’Rourke, who narrowly lost his 2018 Senate race, Talarico will have to do even better than that. Latinas in particular could help him, but only if they turn out in higher numbers than they have before.
在爱荷华州、阿拉斯加州和堪萨斯州等其他势均力敌的竞选中，女性也将成为关键因素，这样的选战不在少数。在这些地方以及其他地区，女性要么会引发一场“蓝色浪潮”，要么会在阻止这场浪潮中发挥作用。无论哪种情况，这都将为两党在展望2028年大选时，提供关于信息传递和动员选民的经验教训。
There is no shortage of other toss-up races where women will be a factor, including in Iowa, Alaska and Kansas. Here and elsewhere, women will either trigger a blue wave or have a hand in stopping one. Either way, it will provide a lesson on messaging and mobilization for both parties as they look to 2028.