在约旦河西岸的60号公路上，穆亚亚德·侯赛因在路边经营了约30年的小摊位上感到自己处于围困之中，该摊位夹在巴勒斯坦村庄卢班·沙尔基耶和犹太人定居点埃利之间。首先，定居者纵火烧毁了摊位。接着他们抢走了他的货物。然后，就在这个月，偏偏是在10月7日，他们在警察注视下，将以色列国旗像灌木丛一样、深达六到十层，钉满了他店铺的正面和两侧。
On Route 60 in the West Bank, sandwiched between the Palestinian village of Al Lubban Ash Sharqiya and the Jewish settlement of Eli, Muayyad Hussein feels under siege in the roadside kiosk he’s run for some 30 years. First, settlers set the unit on fire. Then they robbed his stock. Then, this month, on Oct. 7 of all days, they hammered a thicket of Israeli flags six-to-ten deep across his shop front and to either side as police looked on.
“真正让我担心的是，我有四个儿子，总有一天定居者来的时候他们会在这里，”这位50岁男子一边说，一边转过身去，泪水涌上眼眶。“他们无法眼睁睁看着父亲受辱而保持沉默。”侯赛因不是哈马斯圣战分子，他的儿子们也不是，其中一名正在我们交谈时摆放商品。在定居者——更不用说国家——当前这波暴力行径中，在约旦河西岸到处栽种蓝白相间的以色列国旗森林，并非最恶劣的行径。
“What really worries me is that I have four sons, and one day they might be here when the settlers come,” said the 50-year-old, turning away as he teared up. “They won’t be able to watch their father humiliated and stay quiet.”Hussein is not a Hamas jihadist and neither are his sons, one of whom was stacking products as we spoke. Nor is the campaign to plant forests of blue and white Israeli flags all over the West Bank the worst in the current wave of settler — let alone state — violence.
但如果以色列人明天选出一个不同的政府，它要做的第一件事之一就应该是清除这些旗帜。这些不是爱国主义的象征。它们是抹除和仇恨的象征。
But if Israelis elect a different government tomorrow, one of the first things it should do is remove the flags. These are not symbols of patriotism. They are symbols of erasure and hate.
以色列社会因哈马斯2023年10月7日袭击的野蛮行径而备受创伤，这深深烙印在民众的DNA中，并将塑造此次选举以及未来数年。人口结构变化和对1993年《奥斯陆协议》长期失败的挫败感，早已导致以色列政治舆论在几十年前开始发生深刻的右倾转向。
Israel’s is a society traumatized by the savagery of Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, assault, which reached deep into the population’s DNA and will shape this vote and the years ahead. Demographic change and frustration with the drawn-out failure of the 1993 Oslo Accords already had led to a profound rightward shift in Israeli political opinion that began decades ago.
研究员贝丝·奥本海姆最近在为欧洲对外关系委员会进行的一项大型项目中，梳理了这条通向宗教民族主义的道路。她得出的结论是，这为外交政策或巴勒斯坦问题上的变革留出的空间有限，即使反对派联盟在极不可能的情况下以绝对多数获胜也是如此。她说，欧洲必须认识到它面对的是“一个新的以色列”，并相应地制定应对策略。
The researcher Beth Oppenheim recently traced this journey toward religious nationalism in an extensive project for the European Council on Foreign Relations. She concludes that it leaves limited room for change on matters of foreign policy or the Palestinian question, even in the unlikely event that an opposition coalition should win by a clear majority. Europe, she says, must recognize it is dealing with “a new Israel,” and shape its responses accordingly.
这无疑是事实，但除非采取措施开始扭转过去几年加速运转的仇恨与暴力循环，正如我最近所写，这将不会是一个可持续的以色列。以色列人权组织“贝特塞莱姆”（B’Tselem，以色列被占领土人权信息中心）直言不讳的执行主任尤利·诺瓦克（Yuli Novak）表示，该国正冲向进一步的冲突和国际孤立，局势让人联想起种族隔离时期的南非。
That is undoubtedly true, but unless steps are taken to start reversing the cycles of hate and violence that the last few years have sent into hyperdrive, this will not — as I wrote recently — be a sustainable Israel. The country is hurtling toward further conflict and international isolation, in a situation reminiscent of apartheid South Africa, said Yuli Novak, the outspoken executive director of B’Tselem, the Israeli Information Center For Human Rights in the Occupied Territories.
周五，两名巴勒斯坦人袭击了靠近希伯伦的约旦河西岸一处检查站，打死两名以色列士兵。警方封锁了约旦河西岸最大城市，总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡（Benjamin Netanyahu）迅速承诺要“摧毁”枪手——他们也在枪战中身亡——所在的社区。到周六，大片房屋已被推土机夷平，数百个家庭被驱逐。内塔尼亚胡及其联盟伙伴显然认为这种集体惩罚会赢得选票——他们可能是对的。
On Friday, two Palestinians attacked a West Bank checkpoint near Hebron, killing two Israeli soldiers. Police sealed off the West Bank’s largest city and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly pledged to “destroy” the neighborhood the gunmen — who also died in the gunfight — were from. By Saturday, swathes of houses had been bulldozed and hundreds of families evicted. Netanyahu and his coalition partners clearly believe this collective punishment will prove a vote winner — and they may be right.
在示罗酒庄（Shiloh winery），距离穆亚亚德的小摊位五分钟车程，我询问首席酿酒师阿米哈伊·洛里（Amichai Lourie）近期英国主导的抵制约旦河西岸出口产品（以抗议定居者暴力）将如何影响他的生意，这是一处优雅的场所，放在加利福尼亚纳帕谷（Napa Valley）也毫不违和。“这里没有什么新鲜事，”他对这个问题感到愤怒，“几千年来，人们一直在抵制、仇恨、迫害和屠杀犹太人。”
At the Shiloh winery, a five-minute drive from Muayyad’s kiosk, I asked head winemaker Amichai Lourie how the recent UK-led boycott of exports from the West Bank in protest against settler violence would affect his business, an elegant spot that wouldn’t feel out of place in California’s Napa Valley. “There’s nothing new here,” he said, angered by the question. “People have boycotted, hated, persecuted and slaughtered Jews for thousands of years.”
他补充道，如果我打扮得融入当地、在巴勒斯坦人中间不被察觉地走动，我很快就会明白“他们想杀光我们所有人”。
Were I to dress to blend in and walk unnoticed about the local Palestinians, he added, I would soon understand that “they want to kill us all,” he said.
有些人确实如此。三年前夸耀对以色列妇女儿童实施暴行的哈马斯武装分子，并非自愿停手。但大多数巴勒斯坦人——约200万生活在以色列、拥有以色列公民身份的人，以及居住在约旦河西岸和加沙地带的550万巴勒斯坦人——既不是枪手也不是凶手。他们同样因2023年10月以来发生的一切而备受创伤，这勾起了他们自身遭受损失与虐待的历史。
Some clearly do. The Hamas fighters who boasted of their atrocities against Israeli women and children three years ago did not stop by choice. But most Palestinians, the roughly 2 million who live in Israel as its citizens and the 5.5 million in the West Bank and Gaza, are neither gunmen nor murderers. They, too, are traumatized by what has unfolded since October 2023, tapping into their own history of loss and abuse.
不存在速效方案，也没有通往“两国方案”——或“单一国家”——和谐共处的捷径。身穿防弹衣监督周六大选前夕希伯伦破坏行动的内塔尼亚胡极右翼财政部长贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇，呼吁在约旦河西岸发动加沙规模的军事行动。然而，尽管双方都有将对方推入大海的黑暗幻想，这两个群体谁也走不掉。以色列下一任领导人必须认清这一事实，并循序渐予以解决。
There is no quick solution, no short cut to two-state — or one-state — harmony. Donning body armor to oversee Saturday’s pre-election destruction in Hebron, Netanyahu’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for a Gaza-scale military operation in the West Bank. And yet for all the dark fantasies about pushing each other into the sea, neither of these two communities are going anywhere. This fact must be recognized by Israel’s next leaders and, step by step, addressed.
前往约旦河西岸实地走访，有助于理解双方为何僵持不下。令以色列人感到沉重的部分原因，在于该地区巴勒斯坦人近在咫尺；就在去年此时，一项定期民调显示，他们仍支持哈马斯及其在10月7日的所作所为，主张武装冲突而非谈判。然而据本月一项民调显示，自那以后，对哈马斯的支持率已崩塌（在约旦河西岸降至13%），对武装冲突的渴望也随之消退。这表明态度可以改变，但建立信任将难得多。
It helps to visit the West Bank to understand the intransigence of the two sides. What weighs on Israelis in part is the sheer proximity of the territory’s Palestinians, who as recently as this time last year said in a regular poll that they still supported Hamas and what it did on Oct. 7, and favored armed conflict over negotiation. Since then, a poll from this month shows, support for Hamas has collapsed (to 13% in the West Bank), together with the appetite for armed conflict. That shows attitudes can change, but trust will be much harder to build.
从约旦河西岸到特拉维夫中部海滩的距离，大致相当于从曼哈顿市中心到约翰·F·肯尼迪国际机场的距离。至于耶路撒冷——这座拥有100多万人口的城市——两者之间根本没有距离可言：以色列1967年从约旦手中夺取控制权的领土，始于该市境内。由于哈马斯从加沙利用滑翔伞和摩托车发动袭击的记忆犹新，即便许多自由派以色列人也不愿设想建立一个巴勒斯坦国，因为它可能再次选出哈马斯，而在无人机时代，他们的卧室将处于射程范围内。
From the West Bank to the beaches of central Tel Aviv is about the same distance as from downtown Manhattan to John F. Kennedy International Airport. To Jerusalem, a city of more than 1 million people, there’s no distance at all — the territories Israel wrested from Jordanian control in 1967 begin within the city. With the Hamas attack from Gaza on hang gliders and motorbikes still front of mind, even many liberal Israelis are unwilling to countenance creating a Palestinian state that could again elect Hamas and, in the age of drones, would have their bedrooms in range.
对巴勒斯坦人而言，地理因素同样具有决定性意义。像伊利这样的定居点如今已是成熟城镇，但在20世纪70年代和80年代，它们还是当时的山顶活动房屋。如今，西岸定居者（不含东耶路撒冷）已超过50万。他们的政治和经济重要性与日俱增，与此同时，道路和公用设施被改道为他们服务，而路障和检查站将巴勒斯坦人分割得支离破碎，扼杀了他们的经济。
For Palestinians, geography is just as compelling an issue. Settlements such as Eli are now fully developed towns, but in the 1970s and ‘80s were the hilltop caravans of their day. Today there are more than half a million settlers in the West Bank (excluding East Jerusalem). Their political and economic importance is growing, even as roads and utilities are diverted to serve them while roadblocks and checkpoints atomize the Palestinians and choke their economy.
在纳布卢斯城外最大的巴勒斯坦难民营巴拉塔停留时，这里与伊利和示罗的反差再明显不过。此处的路面坑洼多于平整。路边两侧堆满了汽车残骸，这些是以色列保险公司认定的全损车辆，被拖至此处拆解零件，这算得上当地的一门产业。由于行动限制导致难以前往以色列通勤，加上税收被扣留不交给巴勒斯坦权力机构，一个本就疲弱的经济彻底垮塌了。
Stopping in the largest Palestinian refugee camp, Balata, outside Nablus, the contrast with Eli and Shiloh could not be more stark. The roads here are more pothole than surface. Piled high to either side are the carcasses of cars, written off by Israeli insurance companies and stripped here for parts, in what passes for an industry. With travel restrictions making it difficult to commute to Israel, and tax revenues withheld from the Palestinian Authority, an always-weak economy has been utterly crushed.
“我们只想活下去，”85岁的米拉·阿米尔说，他1949年逃离以色列来到这里，记得在以色列建国前曾与犹太邻居共进餐食。等出租车生意迟迟不来的年轻男子们则不那么豁达，怨气更重。
“We just want to live,” says 85-year-old Mirah Amir, who has been here since he fled Israel in 1949 and remembers eating with his Jewish neighbors before Israel’s creation. The younger men waiting with him for taxi fares that never seemed to come were less philosophical and more bitter.
那么该怎么办？答案不可能是英雄式的。必须从小处着手，但态度必须明确无误，开始扭转过去几年的破坏。在加沙地带，根本政策可能不会改变，但新政府可以为唐纳德·特朗普的和平计划扫清障碍，并停止那些透着让该地区变得不适合居住意图的措施。
So what to do? The answer cannot be heroic. It has to start small but unequivocally to begin to unwind the damage of the last few years. In Gaza, fundamental policy may not change, but a new government can unblock progress on Donald Trump’s peace plan and halt measures transparently aimed at making the territory uninhabitable.
在约旦河西岸，警方仅允许侯赛因拆除妨碍其店铺通道的那些旗帜，所有此类旗帜都必须清除。所谓的“山顶青年”对约旦河西岸许多高调暴力事件负责，应被解除武装，他们的活动板房定居点应被拆除，土地应归还给被驱逐的巴勒斯坦主人。警方和安全部门必须进行改革，回归依法执法，而不是纵容无法无天。
In the West Bank, those flags the police allowed Hussein to remove only to the extent they blocked access to his shop must all go. The so-called Hilltop Boys, responsible for much of the high-profile violence in the West Bank, should be disarmed, their caravan settlements dismantled and the land returned to its displaced Palestinian owners. The police and security services must be reformed and go back to enforcing the law instead of enabling lawlessness.
同样重要的是开始修复与以色列本国阿拉伯社区的关系，近年来警方的疏忽让有组织犯罪团伙横行霸道，导致谋杀率从2022年到2023年翻了一倍多。
Just as important is to start repairing relations with Israel’s own Arab communities, where neglect by police has in recent years allowed organized crime gangs to run free, more than doubling the murder rate from 2022 to 2023.
危机中蕴藏着机遇。无论以色列采取何种路径应对约旦河西岸和加沙地带，如果要摆脱恐怖主义、镇压和国际孤立的无尽循环，都必须从融合本国阿拉伯人口开始。这不会太难，因为改进的门槛低得不能再低。即使是反对派也表示不会与阿拉伯政党组建联合政府，尽管这会让他们几乎稳操胜券，而这些政党代表着五分之一的人口。
There is opportunity in this crisis. Whatever path Israel takes to deal with the West Bank and Gaza, it needs to start by integrating its own Arab population if it is to escape an endless cycle of terrorism, repression and international isolation. That won’t take much, because the bar for improvement could hardly be lower. Even the opposition says it won’t form a coalition with Arab parties, which represent a fifth of the population, despite the fact that this would bring them near-certain victory.
由按议席比例组成的议员构成的中央选举委员会试图禁止所有阿拉伯政党参选，却被最高法院驳回。法院的裁决并不令人意外，但这一举动旨在让犹太选民眼中巴勒斯坦政党失去合法性，并打击阿拉伯选民的士气。
The Election Committee, made up of legislators in proportion to their seats in parliament, tried to ban all the Arab parties from running, only to be overruled by the Supreme Court. The court decision was no surprise, but the exercise aimed to delegitimize Palestinian parties in the eyes of Jewish voters and demoralize Arab ones.
在我最近的一次访问中，与我交谈的巴勒斯坦和以色列的政治人士及活动家们认为，这种策略最终可能会适得其反。“我们现在正面临着犹太人过去所遭受的迫害，”总部位于海法的“Adalah”（以色列阿拉伯少数群体权利法律中心）的创始人兼主任哈桑·贾巴林（Hassan Jabareen）说道。他曾代表阿拉伯政党在法庭上提起诉讼，并相信那些平时漠不关心的阿拉伯选民这次会站出来，推翻他所谓的“犯罪、残暴的政府”，转而支持一个虽然存在歧视现象但至少还算“正常”的政府。
Palestinian Israeli politicians and activists I spoke with on my recent visit believe the tactic will backfire. “We are now facing the persecution that Jews faced in the past,” said Hassan Jabareen, founder and director of Haifa-based Adalah, the Legal Center for Arab Minority Rights in Israel. He litigated on behalf of the Arab parties in their court case and believes normally apathetic Arab voters will come out this time to eject what he called “a criminal, killer government” in favor of a merely discriminatory one.
投票率至关重要——因为即使阿拉伯议员不会加入由主要反对派领袖加迪·艾森科特（Gadi Eisenkot）领导的联合政府，他们也会通过投票来支持该政府。
Turnout will matter, because even if Arab legislators won’t join a Jewish coalition under the main opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, they will support it with their votes.
“这次巴勒斯坦裔以色列人不会参与执政，”主要代表阿拉伯选民的“Ra’am”党的政治主任亚赫亚·达哈姆沙（Yahya Dahamsha）在拿撒勒的办公室里告诉我。他说，目前双方之间的矛盾还过于尖锐，但这种情况在下次选举中是有可能发生的，而且从长远来看也是必须发生的，如果这个国家想要恢复正常的话。一个令人欣慰的小迹象是：犹太人出身的前高级警官约阿夫·塞加洛维茨（Yoav Segalovitz）已经加入了这个宗教保守派政党“Ra’am”，并打算参加以色列议会的选举。
Palestinian Israelis won’t be in government this time, Yahya Dahamsha, political director for the predominantly Arab Ra’am party, told me at his office in Nazareth. It’s all too raw for both sides. But it could and should happen at the next election and in time it must if the country is to return to health, he said. In one small, promising sign, Yoav Segalovitz, a Jewish former senior police officer, has joined the religious-conservative Ra’am to run on its Knesset list.
只有让阿拉伯人担任政府职务、能够为他们的社区争取关键权益，才能实现某种程度的和解与信任。这种情况以前发生过：2019年内塔尼亚胡短暂下台时，“Ra’am”党曾加入联合政府并成功将其赶下台，这一举措得到了广泛认可。这样的合作应该再次发生。双方都需要摒弃极端种族主义言论。
Having Arab ministers in positions of power, able to negotiate key demands for their community, is the only path toward some kind of reconciliation and trust. It happened before, when Ra’am joined a coalition government to oust Netanyahu the last time he briefly lost office, in 2019, and proved widely accepted. It should happen again. Both camps need to marginalize their racist extremes.
“如果艾森科特能够带来希望，而不是继续煽动仇恨，那么他就能改变现状，”达哈姆沙说。无论结果如何，“关键都在于领导人。”明天，以色列人民必须做出选择。
“If Eisenkot can just offer hope, instead of all this hate and incitement, he can change things,” said Dahamsha. For good or ill, he said, “it’s all about the leaders.”Tomorrow, Israelis will have to choose.