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以色列迎来深度分裂的选举,10月7日事件的清算迫在眉睫:需要了解什么Israel heads into deeply divided election as Oct. 7 reckoning looms: What to know

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前以色列军方参谋长加迪·艾森科特出席其所属“雅沙尔党”举办的活动,以色列全国大选将于10月27日举行,摄于2026年10月25日,以色列特拉维夫。(罗南·兹武伦/路透社摄)Former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot attends an event for his Yashar party, ahead of Israel's national election in Tel Aviv, Israel, October 25, 2026. (Ronen Zvulun/Reuters)

特拉维夫,以色列 —— 印有以色列政治领袖头像的竞选横幅覆盖了建筑物和路边,而在家庭、咖啡店和家庭聚会中,同一个问题主导着谈话:总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡能否继续掌权?随着以色列人周二前往投票,该国正为一场势均力敌的选举做准备,结果可能再次陷入政治僵局。但这次投票不同于以色列近期历史上的任何一次选举。

TEL AVIV, ISRAEL — Campaign banners bearing the faces of Israel's political leaders cover buildings and roadsides, while in homes, coffee shops and family gatherings, the same question dominates conversations: Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remain in power? With Israelis heading to the polls Tuesday, the country is bracing for a closely contested election that could end in another political deadlock. But this vote is unlike any other in Israel's recent history.

对许多以色列人来说,这场选举已成为一场关于问责的公投,旨在追究导致哈马斯恐怖分子实施2023年10月7日大屠杀(以色列历史上最致命的袭击)的失职责任。内塔尼亚胡几十年来主导以色列政坛,他拒绝接受要求他为安全失职承担个人责任并设立独立国家调查委员会的呼声。他的政府转而寻求一项政治任命的调查,这一提议遭到许多遇难者家属的强烈反对。

For many Israelis, the election has become a referendum on accountability for the failures that allowed Hamas terrorists to carry out the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre — the deadliest attack in Israel's history. Netanyahu, who has dominated Israeli politics for decades, has resisted calls to accept personal responsibility for the security failures and establish an independent state commission of inquiry. His government instead sought a politically appointed investigation, a proposal fiercely opposed by many bereaved families.

然而,以色列的分裂在10月7日之前就已开始。在袭击发生前几个月,数十万以色列人走上街头抗议内塔尼亚胡提出的司法改革,批评者认为这将破坏该国的民主。对抗蔓延至军队,预备役军人威胁暂停志愿服役,引发对以色列备战状态的担忧。一些批评者认为,这种动荡向该国敌人投射了软弱,尽管这种动荡在多大程度上影响了哈马斯发动袭击的决定仍有争议。

Yet Israel's divisions began long before Oct. 7. In the months preceding the attacks, hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets to protest Netanyahu's proposed judicial overhaul, which critics argued would undermine the country's democracy. The confrontation spilled into the military, where reservists threatened to suspend volunteer service, raising alarms about Israel's preparedness. Some critics have argued that the turmoil projected weakness to the country's enemies, although the extent to which it influenced Hamas's decision to attack remains disputed.

大屠杀发生三年后,这些分裂只加深了,使周二的投票变得异常个人化。政治立场紧张了友谊,分裂了家庭,全国性的辩论在很大程度上简化为一个单一问题:你是支持内塔尼亚胡(广为人知的“比比”),还是反对他?对于一些在10月7日失去亲人的家庭来说,答案痛苦而清晰。

Three years after the massacre, those divisions have only deepened, transforming Tuesday's vote into something intensely personal. Political allegiances have strained friendships and divided families, with much of the national debate reduced to a single question: Are you for Netanyahu, widely known as "Bibi," or against him? For some families who lost loved ones on Oct. 7, the answer is painfully clear.

希尔·沙伊的兄弟亚龙·沙伊是一名以色列士兵,在当天与哈马斯恐怖分子的战斗中丧生。沙伊向那些考虑再次投票给内塔尼亚胡的人发出了一条严厉的信息。“如果你仍然决定再次投票给这个给我们带来灾难的人以及他的同伙,我有一个个人请求:不要再来这里了,”沙伊在10月7日其兄弟的纪念仪式上在墓前说道。“你们还有20天的时间来参与拨乱反正的过程。但如果你选择延续失败而不是向阵亡者致敬,明年最好还是待在家里,”她补充道。

Shir Shai, whose brother Yaron Shai, an Israeli soldier, was killed battling Hamas terrorists that day, delivered a stark message to those considering another vote for Netanyahu. "If you nevertheless decide to vote again for the man who brought disaster upon us and his accomplices, I have one personal request: Don't come here anymore," Shai said over her brother's grave in his memorial ceremony on October 7 "You still have 20 days to be part of the process of putting things right. But if you choose to perpetuate the failure rather than honor the fallen, it would be better if you stayed home next year," she added.

一名男孩骑着自行车停在内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团竞选横幅旁,以色列议会选举即将举行,摄于2026年10月25日,以色列内盖夫。(尼尔·埃利亚斯/路透社摄)A boy sits on his bicycle next to a campaign banner of Netanyahu's Likud party, ahead of the Israeli parliamentary election, in Bnei Brak, Israel, October 25, 2026. (Nir Elias/Reuters)

然而,其他失去亲人的家庭得出了相反的结论,他们认为内塔尼亚胡在多条战线多年的战争中立场坚定,并认为以色列的军事和情报机构对未能预判哈马斯的袭击负有主要责任。

Yet other bereaved families have reached the opposite conclusion, crediting Netanyahu with standing firm through years of war on multiple fronts and arguing that Israel's military and intelligence establishment bears the principal responsibility for failing to anticipate the Hamas assault.

一名女子注视着民众参加集会,要求设立独立的国家调查委员会,调查2023年10月7日哈马斯发动的袭击及其前因后果,以色列议会选举将于10月27日举行,摄于2026年10月24日,以色列特拉维夫。(尼尔·埃利亚斯摄)A woman looks on as people attend a rally to demand the establishment of an independent state commission of inquiry into the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks and the events leading up to them, ahead of Israel's parliamentary election on October 27, in Tel Aviv, Israel, October 24, 2026. (Nir Elias

日益激烈的竞选活动加剧了深度两极分化的氛围。就在选举前两天,内塔尼亚胡分享了一张由人工智能生成的图片,描绘了特拉维夫上空发生核爆炸的场景,并警告称,如果该国选出一个无法对抗德黑兰的领导人,将面临伊朗带来的生存威胁。

The deeply polarized atmosphere has been intensified by an increasingly bitter campaign. Just two days before the election, Netanyahu shared an AI-generated image depicting a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv, warning of the existential threat posed by Iran if the country elects a leader unable to confront Tehran.

目前的担忧已不仅限于选举结果本身。以色列警方正为投票结束后可能发生的骚乱做准备,专家则警告称,存在对结果合法性产生争议的潜在可能——包括类似于2021年1月6日美国国会大厦袭击事件的极端情景。

Concerns now extend beyond the election results themselves. Israeli police are preparing for possible unrest after the polls close, while experts have warned about the potential for disputes over the legitimacy of the results — including an extreme scenario resembling the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

随着反对派在取代内塔尼亚胡的目标上保持一致,但在如何在此后进行治理的问题上存在分歧,没有任何一个政治阵营能够确保获得议会多数席位,最终结果可能需要数周时间才能确定。投票何时开始和结束?

With the opposition united in its ambition to replace Netanyahu but divided over how to govern afterward, neither political bloc is assured of a parliamentary majority and the final outcome could take weeks to determine. When do polls open and close?

以色列人将于10月27日星期二投票,大多数投票站于当地时间上午7点开放,晚上10点关闭。

Israelis will vote Tuesday, Oct. 27, with most polling stations opening at 7 a.m. and closing at 10 p.m. local time.

以色列将选举日定为全国性假日,让选民有机会前去投票。一些较小的社区和特殊投票站的运作时间表有所不同。合格选民必须是年满18岁的以色列公民,通常在指定投票站投票。大多数居住在国外的以色列人不能远程投票,但海外某些官方代表除外。以色列的选举制度是如何运作的?以色列实行议会制,选民投票选择的是政党,而非总理个人候选人。

Election Day is a national holiday in Israel, giving voters the opportunity to cast their ballots. Some smaller communities and special polling locations operate on different schedules. Eligible voters must be Israeli citizens at least 18 years old and generally vote at their assigned polling station. Most Israelis living abroad cannot vote remotely, although exceptions apply to certain official representatives overseas. How does Israel's election system work? Israel has a parliamentary system in which voters select a political party rather than an individual candidate for prime minister.

该国议会称为“克内塞特”,共120个席位,通过全国范围的比例代表制分配。每个政党提交一份按顺序排列的候选人名单,其获得的席位数取决于其在全国有效选票中的得票比例。政党要进入议会,必须获得至少3.25%的有效选票。未达该门槛的政党将得不到任何席位,这可能改变敌对政治集团之间的力量平衡。选举结果何时公布?

The country's parliament, known as the Knesset, has 120 seats, distributed through a system of nationwide proportional representation. Each party submits a ranked list of candidates, and the number of seats it receives depends on its share of the national vote. To enter parliament, a party must win at least 3.25% of the valid votes. Parties falling below that threshold receive no seats, potentially changing the balance between rival political blocs. When will election results be announced?

民主党人亚伊尔·戈兰在集会上发言,要求设立独立的国家调查委员会,调查2023年10月7日哈马斯发动的袭击及其前因后果,以色列议会选举将于10月27日举行,摄于2026年10月24日,以色列特拉维夫。Yair Golan of the Democrats party speaks during a rally to demand the establishment of an independent state commission of inquiry into the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks and the events leading up to them, ahead of Israel's parliamentary election on October 27, in Tel Aviv, Israel October 24, 202

以色列主要电视网预计将在周二晚10点(美国东部时间下午4点)投票结束后立即发布出口民调。这些预测将首次显示各党可能赢得的席位数,以及内塔尼亚胡或其对手谁更有利地组建联合政府。但出口民调并非官方结果,最终得票中的微小差异都可能决定政党能否跨过选举门槛。实际计票结果将随着选票统计陆续出炉,投票结束后及随后几天将出现初步结果。

Israel's major television networks are expected to release exit polls immediately after voting ends at 10 p.m. Tuesday (4 p.m. EST). Those projections will provide the first indication of how many seats each party may win and whether Netanyahu or his rivals appear better positioned to assemble a coalition. But exit polls are not official results, and even small differences in the final vote could determine whether parties cross the electoral threshold. Actual vote counts will emerge as ballots are counted, with preliminary results developing after polls close and over the following days.

以色列中央选举委员会定于11月4日周三公布官方结果,即选举日后第八天。主要候选人有哪些?

Israel's Central Elections Committee has scheduled the publication of official results for Wednesday, Nov. 4 , eight days after the election. Who are the main candidates?

现年 77 岁的总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡领导保守右翼的利库德集团,正寻求延续其作为以色列任职时间最长总理的纪录。他的主要挑战者是 66 岁的加迪·艾森科特,前以色列国防军参谋长,领导中间派的“雅沙尔”党,将自己定位为内塔尼亚胡领导风格的替代选择。前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特(54 岁)也在寻求政治复出,与前总理亚伊尔·拉皮德组成联合名单参选。

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 77, leads the conservative right-wing Likud party and is seeking to extend his record tenure as Israel's longest-serving prime minister. His main challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, 66, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces who leads the centrist Yashar party and has positioned himself as an alternative to Netanyahu's leadership. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, 54, is also seeking a political comeback, running on a joint ticket with former Prime Minister Yair Lapid.

其他重要政治人物包括前国防部长阿维格多·利伯曼、“民主党”领袖亚伊尔·戈兰,以及内塔尼亚胡的右翼民粹盟友伊塔马尔·本-格维尔和贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里希。阿拉伯政党,包括“拉阿姆”党和“联合名单”,也可能在决定最终议会力量对比中发挥关键作用。

Other significant political figures include former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Democrats leader Yair Golan, and Netanyahu's right-wing populist allies Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Arab political parties, including Ra'am and the Joint List, could also play a crucial role in determining the final parliamentary balance.

一个政党需要赢得多少席位?以色列政治的关键数字是 61 —— 120 个席位的克内塞特(议会)过半数。以色列从未有单一政党赢得足以单独控制议会的席位,因此政党通常需要与其他政治派系组建联盟。这意味着赢得最多席位的政党并不自动获得组阁权。相反,决定性的问题是哪位政治领袖能获得足够的议会支持来执政。

How many seats does a party need to win? The key number in Israeli politics is 61 — a majority of the 120-seat Knesset. No single Israeli party has ever won enough seats to control parliament alone, meaning parties generally need to form coalitions with other political factions. This means the party that wins the most seats does not automatically get to lead the government. Instead, the decisive question is which political leader can secure enough parliamentary support to govern.

以色列下一任总理如何产生?官方结果公布后,以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格将与新当选的议会派系代表进行磋商。总统必须在七天内指派一名克内塞特成员组建政府。总统通常会选择被认为最有可能组建执政联盟的政治家,此人不一定是最大党的领袖。该候选人最初有 28 天时间与其他政党达成协议,最多可再延长 14 天。随后,拟议中的政府必须在议会赢得信任投票,方可就职。

How is Israel's next prime minister chosen? Once the official results are published, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult representatives of the newly elected parliamentary factions. Within seven days, the president must assign a member of the Knesset the task of forming a government. The president generally selects the politician considered most likely to assemble a governing coalition, who is not necessarily the leader of the largest party. That candidate initially has 28 days to reach agreements with other parties, with the possibility of an extension of up to 14 additional days. The proposed government must then win a confidence vote in the Knesset before taking office.

如果没有人能组建政府会怎么样?如果第一位候选人失败,总统可以请另一位议员尝试组建政府,给予该人28天期限,且不得延长。如果这一努力也告失败,61名议员组成的多数派可以请求给另一名候选人14天的时间进行尝试。如果未能产生政府,以色列可能面临又一次全国大选。

What happens if nobody can form a government? If the first candidate fails, the president can ask another lawmaker to attempt to form a government, giving that person 28 days without an extension. If that effort also fails, a majority of 61 lawmakers can request that another candidate be given 14 days to try. If no government emerges, Israel could face another national election.

组建联盟的谈判可能需要数周或数月。据以色列民主研究所统计,历史上组建以色列政府的过程通常需要20到100天。在新政府宣誓就职之前,卸任政府将继续留任。

Coalition negotiations can take weeks or months. According to the Israel Democracy Institute, the process of forming an Israeli government has historically taken between 20 and 100 days. Until a new government is sworn in, the outgoing government remains in office.

为什么这次选举尤为重要?周二的投票是自2023年10月7日哈马斯主导的袭击事件以来的首次全国大选,该袭击引发了加沙战争,并对以色列的安全领导层提出了深刻的质疑。

Why is this election particularly consequential? Tuesday's vote is the first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks, which triggered the war in Gaza and raised profound questions about Israel's security leadership.

除了内塔尼亚胡的政治前途之外,下一届政府还将面临有关以色列国家安全、加沙未来、兵役征召、与美国的关系以及该国地区外交关系的决策。

由于两大政治集团均没有通往议会多数席位的清晰道路,这场竞争可能会在周二的选票清点完毕很久之后依然悬而未决。

Beyond Netanyahu's political future, the next government will face decisions over Israel's national security, the future of Gaza, military conscription, relations with the United States and the country's regional diplomatic relationships. ear path to a parliamentary majority for either major political bloc, the contest could remain unresolved long after Tuesday's votes are counted.

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