什么是技术“熔断开关”？问问乌克兰就知道了。有关其军事使用埃隆·马斯克的卫星网络“星链”遭遇速度限制的报道，让美国的盟友们意识到，他们过度依赖最终无法自主掌控的关键技术获取渠道。“星链”对于抵御俄罗斯空中袭击至关重要。
What does a technological kill switch look like? Ask Ukraine. Reports of speed restrictions on its military use of Elon Musk’s satellite network Starlink, essential for fending off Russian aerial assaults, have reminded America’s allies that they rely far too much on access to critical tech that they ultimately don’t control.
在冲突中利用生死攸关的技术获取权作为筹码并非新鲜事，但这却是一个令人清醒的时刻。正如加拿大的马克·卡尼所言：“这是一件让你无法视而不见的事。”即使限制似乎已在周末解除，正如乌克兰方面所说，被切断连接的威胁依然存在。
Using access to life-or-death tech as leverage in a conflict isn’t new but this is a clarifying moment. “Something you can’t unsee,” as Canada’s Mark Carney put it. Even if the restrictions appear to have been lifted, as Ukraine said at the weekend, the threat of being cut off is still there.
那么能做些什么呢？卡尼在欧盟的新盟友拥有手段和动力，为巴黎上市的Eutelsat Communications（优特尔萨特通信）和SES SA等替代卫星网络注入强心剂。尽管它们的容量和带宽远不如“星链”，但彭博情报分析师约翰·戴维斯表示，从中期来看，如果各国政府转而摆脱马斯克及其公司SpaceX的依赖，这些网络处于最有利位置。
So what can be done? Carney’s new best friends in the European Union have the means and the motive to put a rocket under alternative satellite networks such as Paris-listed Eutelsat Communications and SES SA. They have far less capacity and bandwidth than Starlink but are best placed in the medium term should governments turn away from Musk and his company SpaceX, says Bloomberg Intelligence analyst John Davies.
从长远来看，欧盟将目光投向了一个名为“Iris2”（鸢尾座2号）的新卫星网络，耗资156亿欧元（约175亿美元），由近期完成资本重组的Eutelsat和其他欧洲大陆公司支持。官员们还可以加快泛欧交易的审批，如“布罗莫计划”——一个由Leonardo SpA、Airbus SE和Thales SA参与的卫星制造合资项目——并优先保障电信领域的主权。
Longer term, the EU has its sights set on a new €15.6 billion ($17.5 billion) satellite network called Iris2, backed by the recently recapitalized Eutelsat and other continental companies. Officials can also speed up approval of pan-European deals like Project Bromo — a satellite-making venture involving Leonardo SpA, Airbus SE and Thales SA — and prioritize sovereignty in telecoms.
坏消息是，航天是一门难做的生意。欧洲实际上还需要数年时间，才能真正挑战马斯克这家从头到尾都掌握核心技术的航天公司，如果他如愿以偿，特斯拉公司也将很快纳入旗下。投资新一代卫星是一回事，但考虑到欧洲缺乏成就SpaceX声名的卓越可重复使用火箭，要大规模、高速度地将卫星送入轨道，还需要时间。
The bad news is that space is a hard business. Europe is realistically years away from truly challenging Musk’s soup-to-nuts space company, soon to include Tesla Inc. if he gets his way. Investing in a new generation of satellites is one thing but it takes time to sling them into orbit at scale and speed, given that Europe lacks the remarkable reusable rockets that made SpaceX’s name.
因此，Iris2 星座至少要等到 2030 年才能投入运营。到那时世界会变成什么样，谁也说不准。SpaceX 的市值已是 Eutelsat 的 1000 倍，其科幻般的愿景如今包括多达 100 万颗由人工智能驱动的卫星。与此同时，像法国的玛丽娜·勒庞这样的民族主义领导人当选，可能会给泛欧防务项目和对乌克兰的支持泼冷水。
Hence why the Iris2 constellation won’t be operational until at least 2030. And who knows what the world will look like then? SpaceX’s market value is already 1,000 times Eutelsat’s and its sci-fi visions now include up to 1 million satellites powered by artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, the election of nationalist leaders like France’s Marine Le Pen could pour cold water on pan-EU projects in defense and support for Ukraine.
尽管如此，欧洲人不应只是羞羞答答地重复“目前没有现成的 Starlink 替代品”，而应加快推进举措，让欧洲的航天努力更接近“发射”阶段。Eutelsat 现有的 OneWeb 低轨卫星星座应得到更充分的利用。它虽然不如 Starlink，但可以通过增加更多便携式、适合军用的终端来扩展，正如今年早些时候与韩国 Intellian 公司的合作所表明的那样。
Still, instead of just sheepishly repeating that there is no Starlink alternative immediately to hand, Europeans should be accelerating initiatives to get their space efforts closer to lift-off. Eutelsat’s existing OneWeb low-orbit satellite constellation should be better exploited. It is inferior to Starlink’s but could be expanded with more portable military-ready terminals, as a partnership with South Korea’s Intellian suggested earlier this year.
这很可能需要 Eutelsat 的法英两国政府支持者提供更多投资和制造支持。近年来，该公司获得了大量资金和支持，但仍处于亏损状态，且面临卫星电视业务下滑的风险。
That will probably require more investment and manufacturing support from Eutelsat’s Franco-British government backers. The company has been showered in money and support in recent years but it remains unprofitable and is exposed to a declining satellite-TV business.
在追求自主的同时，欧洲也应保持对全球合作伙伴关系的开放态度，即使马斯克的行径让人不得不谨慎。加拿大的 Telesat 公司（其 Lightspeed 网络预计明年上线）是一个显而易见的候选者。
Europe should also remain open to global partnerships as it pursues autonomy, even if Musk’s antics encourage caution. Canada’s Telesat Corp., whose Lightspeed network is due to come online next year, is an obvious candidate.
为何不考虑另一家由美国亿万富翁经营的企业——Amazon.com Inc.？它已有近 400 颗卫星在轨，并计划今年推出商业服务。对特朗普治下的美国保持合理的警惕是必要的，但对亚马逊的依赖对欧洲而言是双向的：杰夫·贝佐斯依赖法国火箭公司 Arianespace 进行发射，而他自己的蓝色起源公司正在努力从今年早些时候的一次爆炸事故中恢复过来。
And why not another US billionaire-run enterprise, Amazon.com Inc., which has almost 400 satellites in orbit and is launching a commercial service this year? There’s justified wariness about Donald Trump’s America, but the Amazon dependence cuts both ways for Europe: Jeff Bezos is relying on French rocket company Arianespace for launches while his own Blue Origin scrambles to recover from an explosion earlier this year.
“更紧密的关系可以抵消对马斯克的依赖，并可能促成火箭生产方面的合作，”都灵理工学院副教授弗朗切斯科·尼科利表示。他还建议监管机构可确保终端设备实现互操作。
“Closer ties could offset reliance on Musk and possibly lead to partnering in rocket production,” according to Francesco Nicoli, associate professor at the Politecnico Institute of Turin. He also suggests regulators could ensure terminals are made interoperable.
最后，欧洲将不得不加强其贸易防御，因为美国威胁要对欧盟任何“去马斯克化”举措——例如为本地运营商保留部分电信市场份额——进行“毁灭性”报复。此类想法在政治上极具风险，鉴于欧盟对美国军用和民用技术的依赖，使其极易遭受特朗普式的勒索。但共和党在中期选举中受挫，或马斯克的SpaceX与特斯拉合并计划受挫，可能会增强布鲁塞尔的筹码。
Finally, Europe will have to beef up its trade defenses, with the US threatening “devastating” retaliation over any EU efforts to de-Musk itself such as reserving parts of the telecoms market for local operators. Such ideas are politically perilous, given that the bloc’s dependence on US military and civilian tech makes it very vulnerable to Trumpian shakedowns. But a setback for Republicans in the midterm elections, or to Musk’s plans for a SpaceX-Tesla merger, might strengthen Brussels’ hand.
所有选项都伴随着不同的成本和可行程度。单靠其中任何一项都无法确保欧洲在太空领域建立一个无马斯克的立足点。这仍取决于政治层面的认识：谁控制你的技术和电信网络，确实至关重要。即便是英国——长期以来在将珍贵科技公司出售给外国人方面最为自由放任的国家——也开始意识到这一点。英国为近期干预陷入困境的宽带供应商TalkTalk的救援行动辩护称，如果失去互联网接入，生命将受到威胁。
All the options carry different costs and degrees of feasibility. None on its own will assure a Musk-free European beachhead in space. That still depends on the political realization that it really does matter who controls your technology and telecoms networks. Even Britain, so long the most laissez-faire of countries when selling prized tech companies to foreigners, is starting to grasp this. It justified intervening in the recent rescue of a struggling broadband provider, TalkTalk, by saying lives would be at stake if internet access was lost.
尽管如此，仍需要更多领导人——尤其是欧盟领导人——效仿卡尼的榜样，明确且自信地告诉选民，为确保乌克兰暴露的处境不成为常态，需要做什么。“毫无疑问，我们将摆脱对Starlink的依赖，”加拿大总理曾表示。对欧洲而言，问题在于：如果不是现在，那是什么时候？
Still, more leaders — especially in the EU — need to follow Carney’s example and tell voters explicitly and confidently what is needed to ensure that Ukraine’s exposed position doesn’t become the norm. “Starlink we will diversify away from, no question,” the Canadian prime minister has said. The question for Europe is: If not now, when?