乌干达在捍卫本国货币方面已无计可施，迫使决策者不得不动用本已稀薄的缓冲资金。
Uganda is running out of options to defend its currency, forcing policymakers to draw down on already thin buffers.
根据彭博社汇编的数据，截至周五收盘，乌干达先令本月兑美元汇率表现为全球第二差，仅次于伊拉克第纳尔。在此期间，先令贬值超过11%，跌至每美元兑4419.95先令。
As of Friday’s close, the shilling was the world’s second-worst-performing currency against the dollar this month, trailing only Iraq’s dinar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It has lost more than 11% over the period, weakening to 4,419.95 per dollar.
尽管乌干达银行在10月14日的紧急会议上将基准利率上调了225个基点至12%——这是今年全球最大幅度的加息，但跌势仍在持续。分析师警告称，如果其他干预措施无效，该行可能需要进一步收紧政策。
The rout has persisted even after the Bank of Uganda raised its benchmark interest rate by 225 basis points to 12% at an emergency meeting on Oct. 14 — the world’s biggest hike this year. Analysts warn it may need to tighten further if its other interventions don’t work.
坎帕拉多家银行的货币交易员表示，继此前几天的抛售之后，央行上周再次抛售了美元。
Currency traders at several banks in Kampala said the central bank sold dollars last week, just days after an earlier sale.
虽然具体金额尚未披露，但在此前的干预中，央行抛售了约3000万美元。尽管执政四十年的总统约韦里·穆塞韦尼本月早些时候曾表示，他“完全反对”动用储备来捍卫货币。
While the amount hasn’t been disclosed, about $30 million was sold in the previous intervention. That’s despite President Yoweri Museveni, who has been in power for four decades, saying earlier this month he is “totally against” using reserves to defend the currency.
惠誉解决方案旗下BMI公司高级分析师奥尔森·加德认为，央行抛售美元的意愿表明，决策者对先令的贬值感到担忧。
The bank’s willingness to sell dollars shows how concerned policymakers are about the shilling’s decline, according to Orson Gard, a senior analyst at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company.
他说：“如果先令在此期间难以收复失地，那么再次加息的可能性很大。”
“If the shilling struggles to pare back losses in the meantime, another hike is looking likely,” he said.
央行未回复置评请求。其下一次预定的利率制定会议将于11月12日举行。
The central bank didn’t respond to emailed requests for comment. Its next scheduled rate-setting meeting is Nov. 12.
法国兴业银行策略师格尔盖伊·乌尔莫西警告称，外汇干预可能只能为前沿市场提供暂时的缓解。乌尔莫西表示，虽然干预措施可以为有序调整争取时间，但无法无限期地抵消外部基本面的持续恶化，例如一个国家的国际收支压力。
Gergely Urmossy, strategist at Societe Generale, cautions that foreign-exchange interventions may offer only temporary relief for frontier markets. While they can buy time for an orderly adjustment, they cannot indefinitely offset a sustained deterioration in external fundamentals such as a country’s balance-of-payment pressures, Urmossy said.
他说：“作为能源净进口国的前沿市场，在能源价格大幅上涨时面临更大的调整压力，尤其是当这种冲击被证明是持续性的时候。”
“Frontier markets that are net energy importers face greater pressure to adjust when energy prices rise significantly, particularly when the shock proves persistent,” he said.
由于乌克兰和伊朗的战争限制了供应，布伦特原油价格今年飙升了约90%，这增加了乌干达外汇储备的压力。央行在其年度报告中将储备金定为67亿美元，足以支付约三个月的进口额，低于东非共同体规定的4.5个月的最低限额。
Brent crude prices have soared about 90% this year as the wars in Ukraine and Iran constrain supplies, adding to pressure on Uganda’s foreign-exchange reserves. The central bank put reserves at $6.7 billion in its annual report, enough to cover about three months of imports and below the 4.5-month minimum prescribed by the East African Community.
马凯雷雷大学商学院经济论坛货币经济学家兼行政助理伊曼纽尔·夸雷认为，先令贬值的“快速步伐”表明市场投机是其损失的驱动因素。
The “quick pace” of depreciation in the shilling points to market speculation as a driver of its losses, according to Emmanuel Kware, a monetary economist and administrative assistant at the Makerere University Business School Economic Forum.
Equity Group Holdings Plc首席经济顾问查理·罗伯逊表示，汇率下跌并未伴随大规模的交易流，这表明交易商正在推动货币逐步走弱，他也认为未来有进一步加息的可能。
The decline also has not been accompanied by large trading flows, suggesting dealers are driving the currency progressively weaker, said Charlie Robertson, chief economic adviser at Equity Group Holdings Plc, who also sees a chance of further rate increases.
罗伯逊说：“根据我们的外汇模型，该货币目前被低估了10%，是非洲第三便宜的货币，对中长期投资者来说具有良好的价值。乌干达的资产价格应该会走强，但目前似乎没有投资者准备好去接这把下落的尖刀。”
“The currency is now 10% undervalued according to our FX model, the third-cheapest African currency and good value for the medium-term investor,” Robertson said. “Uganda asset prices should correct stronger, but no investors today seem ready to catch the falling knife.”