英国央行官员发出了三年多来最强硬的信号，为最早于下个月加息奠定了基础。
Bank of England officials are sending their most hawkish signals in over three years, laying the ground for an interest-rate hike as early as next month.
这是根据彭博经济研究（Bloomberg Economics）构建的自然语言处理模型“BOESPEAK”得出的结论，该模型旨在追踪货币政策委员会成员的沟通信息。
That’s according to BOESPEAK, a natural language processing model built by Bloomberg Economics that tracks communications from Monetary Policy Committee members.
在政策制定者近期频繁露面（包括在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议上）之后，该指数已跃升至2023年初以来的最高水平，当时英国央行正通过加息来应对10%的通胀率。
The index has jumped to its highest level since early 2023, when the BOE was raising rates to battle 10% inflation, after a recent slew of appearances by policymakers, including in Bangkok at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings.
“该指数的上升引人注目，且与近几个月能源成本的攀升相吻合，”彭博经济研究英国首席经济学家丹·汉森（Dan Hanson）表示，他预计11月和2月将会有加息行动。“当然，货币政策委员会可能只是在放狠话。但我们认为，围绕增长和通胀前景的风险平衡已经发生了足够大的变化，足以让委员会多数成员相信需要更高的利率。”
“The rise in the index is striking and has coincided with the ramp up in energy costs in recent months,” said Dan Hanson, chief UK economist at Bloomberg Economics, who expects hikes in November and February. “Of course it’s possible the MPC is just talking tough. But we think the balance of risks around the growth and inflation outlook has shifted by enough to convince the majority of the committee that higher rates are needed.”
与美联储和欧洲央行不同，英国央行此前并未通过收紧政策来应对海湾冲突引发的恶化通胀冲击。然而，越来越多的官员开始警告潜在的第二轮效应，即企业转嫁成本增加，而工人要求提高工资。
Unlike the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the BOE has refrained from tightening in response to the worsening inflation shock caused by the Gulf conflict. However, more officials are warning of potential second-round effects where businesses pass on cost increases and workers demand higher wages.
经济学家和投资者预计，货币政策委员会将在11月5日支持加息25个基点至4%，这将是明年夏天之前的多次加息中的第一次。鉴于该委员会在9月份以6比3的投票结果支持维持利率不变，只需两名成员立场转变就足以打破平衡。
Economists and investors expect the MPC to back a quarter-point hike to 4% on Nov. 5, the first of several by next summer. With the panel splitting 6-3 in favor of holding rates in September, a shift by just two members would be enough to tip the balance.
BOESPEAK旨在检测政策制定者语气的转变。它使用了一种自然语言处理算法，该算法基于2010年以来的超过1.6万条彭博新闻头条进行训练。
BOESPEAK is designed to detect shifts in tone among policymakers. It uses a NLP algorithm trained on over 16,000 Bloomberg News headlines dating back to 2010.
该指数自8月底以来急剧上升，尽管较峰值略有回落，但仍处于2023年3月以来的最高水平附近，当时通胀率处于两位数，利率为4%且在不断上升。
The index has risen sharply since the end of August, and while it has dipped slightly from its peak, it is still around its highest level since March 2023 when inflation was in double digits and interest rates were at 4% and rising.
英国央行行长贝利（Andrew Bailey）是委员会中关键的摇摆投票者，他曾警告称，能源冲击持续的时间越长，就越难避免加息。他的两位副手戴夫·拉姆斯登（Dave Ramsden）和克莱尔·隆巴尔代利（Clare Lombardelli）也使用了类似的措辞，而伊朗战争目前仍看不到解决的迹象。
BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, a key swing voter on the committee, has warned that it is getting more difficult to avoid an interest-rate hike the longer the energy shock goes on. Two of his deputies, Dave Ramsden and Clare Lombardelli, have used similar language with no resolution to the Iran war in sight.
投资者目前预计下个月加息的可能性接近100%，且到明年7月至少还会再加息三次。彭博近期的一项调查显示，经济学家总体预测11月和2月将会有加息。
Investors are pricing in a near-100% chance of a hike next month and at least a further three by July next year. A recent survey by Bloomberg found economists on balance predicting rate increases in November and February.
英国经济表现出了意想不到的韧性，通胀率预计将在明年初超过4%，是2%目标的两倍。劳动力市场似乎也已触底，可能不再能像以前那样有效地抑制冲击，私营部门的工资增长甚至在关键的2027年薪酬谈判开始前就已经回升。
The economy has shown unexpected resilience, and inflation is set to top 4% early next year, double the 2% target. The labor market also appears to be bottoming out and may no longer be doing as much to contain the shock, with private-sector wage growth picking up even before the crucial 2027 pay rounds begin.
本月早些时候在泰国首都出席活动期间，货币政策委员会内部出现了分歧。
Splits emerged on the MPC during appearances in the Thai capital earlier this month.
副行长萨拉·布里登（Sarah Breeden）在10月15日表示，企业已经从2022年的上一次能源冲击中吸取了教训，正寻求通过削减成本来消化价格上涨，而不是将其转嫁给消费者。
Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said on Oct. 15 that firms have learned lessons from the last energy shock in 2022 and are looking to absorb price increases by cutting costs rather than pass them onto consumers.
然而，其他官员继续为加息辩护。首席经济学家休·皮尔（Huw Pill）指出，强劲的需求和明年的工资协议是威胁，尽管他对市场定价的四次加息持怀疑态度。
However, other officials continued to make the case for hiking rates. Chief Economist Huw Pill pointed to resilient demand and wage settlements for next year as threats, though he signaled skepticism over market pricing for four rate rises.
同为鹰派的梅根·格林（Megan Greene）上周警告称，工资增长的放缓已经停滞，这表明劳动力市场并不像官员们想象的那样紧张。凯瑟琳·曼（Catherine Mann）表示，在通胀高企的背景下，即将到来的薪酬谈判存在“工资-价格漂移”的风险，而鸽派成员艾伦·泰勒（Alan Taylor）和斯瓦蒂·丁格拉（Swati Dhingra）则警告称，仓促行动可能会造成损害。
Fellow hawk Megan Greene warned last week that an easing in wage growth has stalled, suggesting that the labor market is not as tight as officials thought. Catherine Mann has said upcoming pay negotiations against a backdrop of elevated inflation risk “wage-price drift,” while doves Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra cautioned against hasty action that could prove damaging.