英国预计到明年年底，在国际援助上的支出将比其国民收入0.3%的目标少约4亿英镑。
The UK is on course to miss its target of spending 0.3% of national income on international aid by an estimated £400m by the end of next year.
全球发展中心（CGD）的计算结果显示，英国到2027年底在承诺的官方发展援助方面将出现巨大缺口。
Calculations from the Center for Global Development (CGD) found the UK was on course for a large shortfall in promised official development assistance at the end of 2027.
研究人员表示，根据财政部对独立专家预测的对比，英国的援助支出预计将比预期少4.1亿英镑，仅占国民收入的0.29%。
The researchers said the central forecast from the Treasury’s comparison of independent experts implied UK aid would be £410m less than anticipated – at only 0.29% of national income.
然而，他们表示，缺口达到5.8亿英镑（仅占国民收入的0.28%）是“非常有可能的”。据估计，即使是最保守的预测也意味着存在2.5亿英镑的缺口。
However, they said it was “very plausible” that the shortfall would be £580m, at only 0.28% of national income. Even the most conservative forecast implies a £250m shortfall, according to the estimates.
全球发展中心高级研究员兼其欧洲项目联席主任伊恩·米切尔将此描述为“英国援助购买力的实质性缺口”。
Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CGD and co-director of its Europe programme, described these as “material shortfalls in the spending power of UK aid”.
他说，弥补哪怕是4亿英镑的缺口，也足以将对非洲的削减减半。这些削减可能会导致数千人丧生，并意味着英国实际上退出了非洲南部和东部地区。
Making up a shortfall of even £400m would be enough to halve cuts to Africa that are likely to cost thousands of lives and mean the UK’s de facto exit from the south and east of the continent, he said.
全球发展中心将这一缺口归因于高于预期的通货膨胀——这意味着国民收入将高于支出审查时的预测——以及2025年围绕外交、联邦和发展部（FCDO）预算的政策变化。
The CGD attributed the shortfall to higher than expected inflation, which means national income will be higher than forecast at the spending review, and a 2025 policy change around the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) budget.
研究人员呼吁部长们考虑在本周的预算中为国际援助分配额外资金，以避免因未达到目标而陷入尴尬并招致批评。
The researchers called on ministers to consider allocating additional funds to international aid in this week’s budget, to avoid the embarrassment and criticism from missing a target.
2027年0.3%的支出目标远低于工党竞选宣言中承诺的0.7%，该目标已被基尔·斯塔默下调，旨在增加国防支出。
The 0.3% spending target for 2027 is far below the 0.7% promised in Labour’s election manifesto, having been downgraded by Keir Starmer to boost spending on defence.
曾在外交事务特别委员会任职的前部长弗勒·安德森表示，她希望在预算中看到更高的发展援助支出。
Fleur Anderson, a former minister who sits on the foreign affairs select committee, said she would like to see higher spending on development aid in the budget.
她说：“我希望看到本届政府走得更远，并及时彻底扭转这些削减，但至少我们应该达到设定的降低后的目标。”
She said: “I’d like to see this government going further and reversing these cuts altogether in time, but at the very least we should be hitting the reduced target that was set.
“未能达标并非一个抽象的会计问题。这意味着社区没有清洁用水，女孩被迫辍学，疫苗无法送达，战区的和平项目被削减。”
“Falling short isn’t an abstract accounting issue. It means communities not having clean water, girls pulled out of school, vaccines that don’t get delivered, peace programmes in war zones cut.
“即将到来的预算为财政部提供了解决这一问题的真正机会，也让政府有机会证明其在英国世界地位问题上的言行一致。”慈善机构一再表示，政府大幅削减援助将影响儿童教育，并增加一些非洲国家疾病和死亡的风险。
“The upcoming budget presents real opportunity for the Treasury to address this and for the government to show that its words on Britain’s place in the world are matched by action.”Charities have repeatedly said that the government’s deep aid cuts will hit children’s education and increase the risk of disease and death in some African countries.
外交、联邦和发展部9月份发布的最新数据显示，斯塔默政府领导下的英国援助削减对世界上最贫穷国家的打击最为严重，而高收入国家获得的援助份额却有所增加。数据显示，对最不发达国家和低收入国家的资助减少了6.7%，削减金额达1.18亿英镑。
The latest figures released by the FCDO in September showed that British aid cuts under Starmer’s government hit the world’s poorest countries the hardest, while higher-income countries’ share of aid increased. The data showed a 6.7% decrease in funding to the least-developed and low-income countries, amounting to cuts of £118m.
英国2025年的整体官方发展援助（ODA）预算降至国民总收入的0.44%，而2024年为0.5%，减少了9.87亿英镑。
The UK’s overall official development assistance (ODA) budget in 2025 decreased to 0.44% of gross national income, compared with 0.5% in 2024, a drop of £987m.
政府优先考虑通过多边机构进行支出，例如世界银行的发展部门国际开发协会以及全球疫苗倡议组织“全球疫苗免疫联盟”（Gavi）。政府也继续资助人道主义支持。
The government has prioritised spending through multilateral agencies such as the World Bank’s development arm, the International Development Association, and the global vaccines initiative Gavi. It has also continued to fund humanitarian support.
保守党和英国改革党承诺将援助进一步削减，从每年约90亿英镑削减至10亿英镑——这一水平将使英国无法支付对联合国和世界银行的现有捐款。
The Conservative party and Reform UK have pledged to slash aid even further, from about £9bn a year to £1bn – a level that would leave the UK unable to cover existing contributions to the UN and World Bank.
外交、联邦和发展部发言人表示：“2026年3月发布的外交、联邦和发展部多年期官方发展援助拨款，根据2025年支出审查时的国民总收入（GNI），制定了我们未来三个财政年度的支出计划和优先事项。”
An FCDO spokesperson said: “The publication of the FCDO multi-year ODA allocations in March 2026 set out our spending plans and priorities for the next three financial years based on GNI [gross national income] at the time of the 2025 spending review.
“转向固定预算减少了波动性，并为实施高影响力的援助项目提供了必要的稳定性。”
“Moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides the necessary stability to deliver high-impact aid programmes.”