唐纳德·特朗普与本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的战时联盟，正暴露出其党内的一条分歧线，这条分歧线将超越他的总统任期而长期存在——关乎“美国优先”对美以关系究竟意味着什么。
Donald Trump’s wartime alliance with Benjamin Netanyahu is exposing a divide within his party that will outlast his presidency — over what “America First” really means for the US-Israel relationship.
如何调和共和党亲以色列建制派与其躁动不安的右翼，将给副总统JD·万斯带来早期考验，后者正为可能在2028年参选做准备。但任何寻求接替特朗普提名的共和党人，都必须绕过同样困扰民主党的那种关于以色列的内部冲突。
Making peace between the GOP’s pro-Israel establishment and its restive right wing will pose an early challenge for Vice President JD Vance, who’s positioning himself for a posible 2028 run. But any Republican looking for the nomination to succeed Trump will have to sidestep the same sort of internal clashes over Israel that have bedeviled Democrats.
特朗普的立场很明确：这位美国总统即便在与以色列领导人公开摩擦之际，也紧密站在内塔尼亚胡一边，并为其连选连任背书。一名白宫官员在给Semafor的声明中强调了特朗普与这位总理的“良好关系”。
Trump’s position is clear: The US president, even amid open tensions with the Israeli leader, has aligned tightly with Netanyahu and endorsed his reelection. A White House official, in a statement to Semafor, emphasized Trump’s “great relationship” with the prime minister.
然而，这一立场在两党内部派系中均不受欢迎，在其深度忠诚的白宫内部也同样不受欢迎。
Yet that position, unpopular with factions in both parties, is also unpopular with some inside his deeply loyalist White House.
“在政府的中层和高层，不仅存在真正的挫败感，更存在对内塔尼亚胡政府真正的愤怒，”一名特朗普政府官员说。“有一种感觉是，他们夸大了自己在伊朗问题上能做什么，以及伊朗政权有多脆弱。有一种感觉是，我们不得不承担实际保卫以色列的大部分重担。” 无论属于哪个党派，下一任总统都将面临具体问题：要在多大程度上维持美国对以色列直接军事援助的长期传统，以及美以军事的深度融合。
“At the mid-level and upper levels of the administration, there is not only real frustration, but real anger with Netanyahu’s government,” said one Trump administration official. “There’s a feeling that they oversold what they could do vis-a-vis Iran, and about how fragile the Iranian regime was. There’s a feeling that we had to bear a lot of the brunt for actually defending Israel.”The next president, regardless of party, will face specific questions about how much to sustain the long tradition of direct US military aid to Israel and deep US integration with its military.
内塔尼亚胡本人在周五的一场采访中也承认了这一点，当时他正为一场可能以目前形式终结其领导地位的大选做准备：“数十亿美元的美国国防预算援助资金——习惯了吧——不会一直给下去。因为美国变了。不是因为以色列变了。”随着特朗普接近其跛脚鸭时代，关于以色列辩论中双方的党派人士都在密切关注每一位2028年的潜在参选人，其中包括万斯。
Netanyahu himself, as he prepares for an election that could end his leadership in its current form, acknowledged as much in a Friday interview: “Tens of billions of US aid dollars to the defense budget — get used to it — won’t keep coming. Because America has changed. Not because Israel has.”And as Trump nears his lame-duck era, partisans on both sides of the Israel debate are watching every 2028 hopeful, including Vance.
长期支持以色列政府的得克萨斯州参议员特德·克鲁兹如果参选，可能会试图通过志同道合的捐赠者来削弱万斯的优势；党内其他人则希望国务卿马可·鲁比奥出于同样的原因加入初选，尽管这种可能性较小。
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, a longtime backer of the Israeli government, could try to cut into Vance’s advantage with likeminded donors if he runs; others in the party are hoping Secretary of State Marco Rubio jumps into a primary for the same reason, though it’s less likely.
与此同时，万斯正试图在特朗普对以色列的支持力度与日益质疑当前双边关系的民粹主义右翼之间寻找平衡。
Vance, meanwhile, is trying to balance Trump’s level of support for Israel against a populist right wing that’s increasingly questioning the current relationship.
在私下交谈和公开会议中，万斯一直在向亲以色列的共和党人保证他对这个犹太国家没有敌意，同时主张这种关系应该更明确地由美国利益主导。今年早些时候，他将美国与以色列的关系比作与法国和英国等国的关系。
In private conversations and public meetings, Vance has sought to assure pro-Israel Republicans that he holds no animus toward the Jewish state, while arguing that the relationship should be more explicitly guided by US interests. Earlier this year, he compared the US relationship with Israel to that of countries like France and the UK.
他说：“当我们结成伙伴关系时，很好，让我们一起合作。（当）我们没有结成伙伴关系时，让我们对此坦诚相待。”
“When we’re partnered, great, let’s work together. And [when] we’re not, let’s just be honest about it,” he said.
万斯上周拒绝表态支持或批评内塔尼亚胡（特朗普则显得漠不关心，对记者称这“由他决定”）。正如万斯7月对乔·罗根所说的那样，他不过是一个“主张与一个正常国家建立正常关系的家伙”。这种姿态或许无法讨好任何一方，但在一定程度上平息了批评者的声音。
Vance declined last week either to endorse or to criticize Netanyahu (Trump appeared unconcerned, telling reporters it’s “up to him”). As Vance put it to Joe Rogan in July, he’s merely a “guy advocating for a normal relationship with a normal country.”That posture may not please either side, but it has helped mollify his critics, to an extent.
“我不认为他恨以色列。我真的不觉得。绝不，我不认为他是反犹分子，”保守派电台主持人西德·罗森伯格（Sid Rosenberg）说。上个月，在副总统就该话题展开魅力攻势期间，他在白宫与万斯进行了闭门会谈。“但我认为，对于推动以色列前进而方，他不像马尔科或特德那样拥有同样的激情。”
“I do not think he hates Israel. I don’t. I don’t think he’s an antisemite, not by any stretch,” said Sid Rosenberg, a conservative radio host who met privately with Vance last month at the White House amid the VP’s charm offensive on the subject. “But I don’t think he has the same passion for Israel moving forward as somebody like Marco or Ted would.”
罗森伯格还谈到了万斯面临的显而易见却又避而不谈的问题：“他的处境肯定比马尔科·鲁比奥或特德·克鲁兹更艰难，因为事实是，许多犹太选民并不信任他。部分原因在于他谈论以色列和比比的方式，另一部分原因在于众所周知他与塔克·卡尔森关系友好。”这位副总统与这位有权势的右翼广播员的长期友谊，在许多亲以色列人士看来，正是问题的核心所在。万斯既没有批评他的朋友，也没有公开敦促卡尔森缓和对以色列以及特朗普拉拢内塔尼亚胡政府的严厉批评。
Rosenberg also addressed the elephant in the room for Vance: “He’s definitely in a tougher spot than Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz because the truth is a lot of Jewish voters don’t trust him. Some of that is the way he talks about Israel and Bibi, and some of that is because he’s admittedly friendly with Tucker Carlson.”The VP’s long friendship with the powerful right-wing broadcaster is, for many on the pro-Israel side, the heart of the issue. Vance has neither criticized his friend nor publicly nudged Carlson to temper what’s been harsh criticism of Israel — and Trump’s cultivation of the Netanyahu government.
“我认为关于‘美国优先’的定义并没有太多争议。这意味着将美国公民的利益置于所有其他利益之上。这绝对不包括向中东的灭绝种族单一民族国家输送数百亿美元的纳税人资金，好让他们去杀害儿童，”卡尔森在与Semafor的短信交流中表示。“那不是‘美国优先’。那是邪恶的。”高层共和党人对以色列的真实看法并不像人们所表现的那样非此即彼。共和党内部对以色列的批评者并不像民主党同僚那样众多，也没有他们那么有组织。
“I don’t think there’s much debate about the definition of America First. It means putting the interests of American citizens above all others. That would definitely not include sending tens of billions of tax dollars to genocidal ethnostates in the Middle East so they can kill kids,” Carlson said in a text exchange with Semafor. “That’s not America First. It’s evil.”The real views of Israel among top Republicans aren’t as binary as they’re made out to be. Critics of Israel within the GOP aren’t as numerous, or as organized, as their Democratic counterparts.
真正的分歧存在于传统的亲以色列强硬派（自乔治·W·布什时代起就将美国与这个犹太国家结为同盟）和一派持怀疑态度的人士之间——这派人以“克制派”为首，他们主张美国应当更多地脱离对以色列的介入，但对该国并无恶意。（卡尔森对以色列的看法在右翼许多人看来属于怀疑派中较为极端的边缘。）一名接近白宫的人士呼应了万斯的公开立场，在总结克制派的视角时表示，这不像进步派那样是“反以色列”的：“这就像是，我不会把一天中的绝大部分时间用来思考这个远在半个地球之外的国家。我觉得以色列挺酷的；看起来是个不错的国家。我不太确定为什么我们要对他们国家发生的事情投入如此之多的忠诚。”
The real schism exists between traditional pro-Israel hawks, who have allied the US with the Jewish state since the George W. Bush era, and a spectrum of skeptics — led by “restrainers,” who argue that the US should be more disengaged from Israel but have no ill-will toward the country. (Carlson’s views on Israel are seen by many on the right as at the more extreme end of the skeptical faction.) One person close to the White House echoed Vance’s public position in summing up restrainers’ perspective as not “anti-Israel” in the same way as a progressive: “It’s just like, I don’t spend the vast majority of my day thinking about this country halfway around the world. I think Israel is cool; seems like a fine country. I’m not sure why we are so devoted to what’s going on in their country as much as we are.”
这场辩论的核心在于美国是否应维持目前对以色列国防的开支——这一问题在两国的一些人看来，是美国政治中一个不必要的刺激因素。
At the heart of the debate is whether the US should keep its current spending on Israeli defense — an issue that some in both countries see as an unnecessary irritant to US politics.
内塔尼亚胡在周五的采访中表示，他正准备减少对美国援助的依赖，而特朗普的一些高级国家安全助手正在力推将美国的长期重心保持在对中国的关注上。
Netanyahu said in his Friday interview that he’s preparing to rely less on US aid, and some of Trump’s senior national security aides are pushing to keep the US’ long-term focus on China.
该党坚决亲以色列的强硬派表示，背离以色列与选民的意愿不符。一位保守派媒体资深人士辩称，以色列是美国“在中东最好的盟友”，并强调特朗普坚持阻止伊朗拥有核武器是立场一致的证据。
The party’s pro-Israel hawks say that turning away from Israel is out of step with the electorate. One conservative media veteran argued that Israel is America’s “best ally in the Middle East,” highlighting Trump’s insistence on preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon as evidence of consistency.
“整个所谓的‘美国优先’只是一场借口仇恨以色列的闹剧，”这名知情人士说，并补充道：“美国选民确实关心以色列正在发生的事情。”在经历了一代人的观念转变后，这一点已经不如从前那么明确。皮尤研究中心今年5月的一项调查发现，在18至34岁的共和党人中，仅有28%对以色列政府持好感，而50岁及以上的共和党人的这一比例为68%。当被问及对以色列人民的看法时，43%的年轻共和党人表示持好感，相比之下，50岁及以上的共和党人的这一比例为79%。
“This whole ‘America First’ thing is just a charade for an excuse to hate on Israel,” the person said, adding: “American voters do care about what’s happening in Israel.”That’s less clear than it once was amid a generational shift. A Pew Research Center survey from May found that just 28% of Republicans ages 18-34 had a favorable view of the Israeli government, compared with 68% of Republicans aged 50 and older. Asked about their view of the Israeli people, 43% of younger Republicans said they view them favorably, compared with 79% of Republicans 50 and older.
共和党内部的分歧可能会对内塔尼亚胡产生影响：他向以色列选民宣传的核心一直是自己与美国的紧密同盟关系。而周二以色列大选前的民调显示，他的政党可能无法赢得组建政府所需的席位。
The schism among Republicans could have consequences for Netanyahu: His pitch to voters in Israel has focused on his close alliance with the US. And polls ahead of Tuesday’s Israeli elections show that his party may not win the seats needed to form a government.
中东研究所高级研究员纳坦·萨克斯对《semafor》表示，白宫内部对内塔尼亚胡的一些不满情绪，可能会在后者为连任而战之际削弱这名以色列领导人。
Natan Sachs, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Semafor that some of the internal White House frustrations with Netanyahu could serve to undermine the Israeli leader as he fights for reelection.
“我们当然看到特朗普政府中的其他人对内塔尼亚胡的不满要强烈得多，有时甚至表现得很明显，”萨克斯说，“副总统万斯就是其中之一，但他不是唯一的。在这方面，这确实在一定程度上损害了内塔尼亚胡，或者至少削弱了他的核心论点之一——即他[独自]有能力以他的挑战者所做不到的方式与世界领导人打交道。”
“We certainly see other people in the Trump administration who are far more frustrated than with Netanyahu, and sometimes visibly so,” Sachs said. “Vice President Vance is one of them, but he’s not the only one. And in this regard, that does hurt Netanyahu somewhat, or at least undermines one of his central arguments — which is that he [alone] is able to deal with world leaders in a way that his challengers would not.”